Paul Posner and Tim Conlan George Mason University.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Our Priorities, Our State Budget WVCBP Annual Meeting, February 7, 2012 Ted Boettner, Executive Director.

Advertisements

FISCAL ACCOUNTABILITY OF STATE GOVERNMENT Presentation Prepared for the Appropriations Committee and the Finance, Revenue, and Bonding Committee by the.

Linden Graber. * What caused the deficit? * How large are projected deficits? * How much reduction is necessary? * How quickly should the deficit be reduced?

UCLA Budget Outlook FY Presentation by Steven A. Olsen Vice Chancellor, Finance and Budget November 18, 2003.

The School Finance Outlook for and Beyond Legislative Revenue Office April 2010.

Deficits and The Debt: An example. Year Taxes Spending Deficit/Surplus Debt 1 25M 25M M 30M -3M 3M 3 30M 35M -5M 8M 4 33M 32M 1M 7M.

America’s National Debt and Long-Term Outlook An Overview of the Challenge and the Implications for Young People March 2009.

The Concord Coalition June 2008 Generational Outlook: The Federal Budget Now and in the Future.

THE CONCORD COALITION presented by Jeffrey S. Thiebert, National Grassroots Director THE CONCORD COALITION

Federal Budget Process

2012 Fall Leadership Summit October 2, 2012 Grant Gibson Senate Finance Committee.

1 America’s National Debt. 2 Important Concepts What’s the difference between deficits and debt? Deficits: The annual imbalance between revenues and spending.

NASBO 1 Federal Impact on State Expenditures. NASBO 2 Jan. ’08 GAO Report: Growing Fiscal Challenges will Emerge during the Next 10 Years “…in the absence.

Texas Taxpayers and Research Association February (512) The Fiscal View From Texas Dale Craymer Texas Taxpayers and Research.

US Fiscal Policy Challenges to a Sustainable Fiscal Future March 2010.

Macroeconomic Issues The Great Recession 12/2007-6/2009 Shaded area = recession.

Prospects for Federal Health Legislation in the 111 th Congress For the 2009 Health Care Forecast Conference Michael Hash Health Policy Alternatives, Inc.

Health Care Forecasting Conference James Baumgardner Deputy Assistant Director for Health Policy Congressional Budget Office February 21, 2008.

The U.S. economy is currently in a recession. 1.True 2.False.

US Debt and Deficits Treasury Securities – a Good Investment? Kamna Gupta Tarun Bhasin Nikolai Dëus-von Homeyer.

 The government generally spends more than it gets in revenue  When expenditures > revenue: budget deficit  If, however, expenditures = revenue, government.

The Congress, the President, and the Budget: The Politics of Taxing and Spending Chapter 14.

THE CONCORD COALITION The Federal Budget Now and In the Future presented by Joshua Gordon, Policy Director.

THE CONCORD COALITION Generational Outlook: The Federal Budget Now and in the Future presented by Joshua.

The Long-Term Budget Outlook in the United States and the Role of Health Care Entitlements Presented by Donald Marron Georgetown Public Policy Institute.

The Economic Crisis and the Fiscal Crisis: 2009 and Beyond Alan Auerbach and William Gale.

The Minnesota State Colleges and Universities system is an Equal Opportunity employer and educator. State of Minnesota Economic Outlook: Implications for.

NESTOA September 16, 2011 Scott Pattison Executive Director National Association of State Budget Officers 444 North Capitol Street, NW, Suite 642 Washington,

The use of government spending and taxing to achieve economic growth, full employment and stable prices. FISCAL POLICY Chapter 15.

THE CONCORD COALITION presented by Robert L. Bixby, Executive Director THE CONCORD COALITION Fiscal Future:

Creating the Federal Budget: Congress & The President.

Presented by Phil Smith, National Political Director The Concord Coalition December 3, 2008 La Grange,

George A. Ralls M.D. Health Services Department December 1 st, 2009 Medicaid Update 2009.

Warm-up 5/10/12  Yesterday we talked about welfare programs to help people in need. How does the government pay for these programs?  What limits how.

Deficit vs. Debt Deficit: how much more Government spends than it receives in tax revenue over 1- year Debt: total amount Government owes (has borrowed.

The Fiscal Situation: Where Do We Go From Here? Governing Washington, DC February 1, 2011 Scott Pattison Executive Director National Association of State.

Group 2 Chih-Mei Shen & Nancy Briana Lόpez Hodgson.

The Economy and Budget: Minnesota and the Nation Legislative Conference February 10, 2010 Scott Pattison Executive Director National Association of State.

Initiative 601: Experience and Context Presentation to the House Finance Committee by the Office of Financial Management Victor Moore, Director Irv Lefberg,

Federal Budget and Intergovernmental Fiscal Issues: can the twain meet?

THE CONCORD COALITION presented by Robert L. Bixby, Executive Director THE CONCORD COALITION Fiscal Solutions.

Unit IV – Legislative & Executive Taxing & Spending: The Budget Process.

Macroeconomic Issues The Great Recession: GDP begins to drop Shaded area = recession.

The State Fiscal Situation NLC March 15, 2011 Scott Pattison Executive Director National Association of State Budget Officers 444 North Capitol Street,

Presented by The Fiscal Wake-Up Tour The Concord Coalition Robert L. Bixby, Executive Director

The Federal Budget in 2009 Kris Cox Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center Budget Summit February 26, 2009.

THE CONCORD COALITION presented by Robert L. Bixby, Executive Director THE CONCORD COALITION Pitfalls.

Fiscal Policy Using taxes and government spending to influence the economy.

State Fiscal Outlook NAMM Washington, DC May 11, 2010 Brian Sigritz Director of State Fiscal Studies National Association of State Budget Officers 444.

Macroeconomic Issues The Great Recession: GDP begins to drop Shaded area = recession.

Overview and Outlook for Georgia’s Revenue Situation and Economy Fiscal Management Council Office of Planning and Budget Ken Heaghney September 2015.

THE CONCORD COALITION presented by Robert L. Bixby, Executive Director THE CONCORD COALITION Fiscal Future:

The Minnesota State Colleges and Universities system is an Equal Opportunity employer and educator. State of Minnesota Economic Outlook: Implications for.

State Fiscal Outlook New England Board of Higher Education Boston, MA December 5, 2008 Brian Sigritz Staff Associate National Association of State Budget.

Today’s Schedule – 11/20 PPT – Federal Spending – Fiscal Policy Filing Taxes HW – Read 15.1/15.2.

Fiscal Policy Chapter 15. Fiscal Policy Stabilization Policy: to prevent recession, depression, inflation, stagflation Fiscal policy Monetary policy Fisc:

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 1 November 3, 2004 Standard Federal Bank Troy, Michigan Sponsored by Standard Federal Bank; Varnum, Riddering, Schmidt.

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org Deficits Have Fallen Sharply Since Recession.

ECONOMICS: Principles and Applications 3e HALL & LIEBERMAN © 2005 Thomson Business and Professional Publishing Fiscal Policy: Taxes, Spending, and the.

McGraw-Hill/Irwin Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and Debt Copyright © 2010 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

© 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license.

Our National Debt What is our current national debt? How did we get into this situation? What can be done to solve this problem?

The Budget. Review terms: Budget: – A policy document allocating burdens (taxes) and benefits (expenditures). Expenditures: – What the government spends.

Creating the Federal Budget:

Debt and the Deficit Is a deficit a problem?.

Global Economic Watch Federal Budgets and Public Policy

Federal Government Spending

Taxes & Government Budget

The Great Recession: GDP begins to drop

Presentation transcript:

Paul Posner and Tim Conlan George Mason University

The Great Recession: Impact on the U.S. Federal System Federal deficit grows to 10% of GDP as revenues decline and countercyclical spending increases Sharp decline in state government tax revenues Delayed impact on local revenues, but with wide variations; rise of municipal bankrupcies Federal countercyclical aid totaling $285 billion moderates impact of state revenue decline, and additional aid to the financial system (TARP) ameliorates length and depth of recession.

Sharp Rise in Federal Deficit as Revenues Decline, Spending Rises

State Revenues were Significantly Reduced by the Recession but Impact on Local Revenues Delayed

State Revenue Declines Created Major Budget Shortfalls

State Budget Shortfalls Substantially Reduced by Federal Countercyclical Aid

Infusion of Countercyclical Aid in the Amer. Recovery and Reinvestment Act

Major Federal Aid in the Recovery Act, FY

Political Implications of the Great Recession Rising federal deficits and health reform initiative spur a conservative political backlash in 2010 Reinforced by growing partisan polarization Intergovernmental politics also become sharply polarized on partisan lines Backlash induces sharp turn toward austerity Budget negotiations will significantly cut federal discretionary spending, including aid to States

Party Control of State Legislatures 2011

From Stimulus to Austerity: The Politics of Polarized federalism

Sharp Turn Towards Austerity

Future Federal Aid at Risk: Federal Budget “Sequester”

Long term trends in U.S. Fiscal Federalism Due to aging population and excess health care cost growth, entitlements will crowd out discretionary federal spending, including most grants-in-aid Rising pension costs, declining federal aid, and eroding base of state sales and gasoline taxes place chronic pressure on state-local budgets Political resolution of these difficult issues will be hampered by continued partisan polarization and by the deinstitutionalization of intergovernmental analytical and collaborative venues

Mandatory Spending Crowds Out Discretionary Assistance

Future Federal Aid at Risk: Long term Budget Trends

Structural Weaknesses in Long term State and Local Finances

State and Local Pension Costs as shares of budgets 22

Deinstitutionalization of IGR 1980 ACIR OMB Treasury GAO Congressional IGR subcommittees Academy for State and Local Government 2013 CBO cost estimation GAO Whither state and local groups?