The Media and The Future April 30, 2013

Opportunities to discuss course content Today 11-2 Wednesday 10-2

Learning Objectives Discuss the Electoral College and the strategy of presidential campaigns Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

Readings Chapter 3: Partisan Change (72-87) (Flanigan) On Reserve: McCutcheon, Chuck. The Elections of 2012: Outcomes and Analysis. “Lessons Learned from the 2012 Elections” pp 41-42

Horse Racing Today It Once was the Sport of Kings The Running of the Urinals The Running of the Urinals

PAID MEDIA IN 2012

Paid Media Unmediated Control the Message More outlets than ever

A Record Breaking Year 1 million ads were aired Both Sides were overwhelmingly negative Obama Spent more and Ran More Ads The Best AdsAds

Herman Cain Bizarre Ads The Rabbit Smoking

Targeting Ads and their Effect Uncommitted voters vs Partisans When are they Most Effective? Ads are a sign of political viability

Candidate Credibility We have to trust the messenger Issue Ownership Try to focus on your best issue

Getting More Votes Delivering a positive message about your candidate (mobilizing) Deliver a negative message about the opposition (mobilizing/demobilizing)

Biographical Ads Inform us about the Candidate Very important early in the campaign Obama doesn’t need to run these….

Issue Ads Focus on a specific issue or a policy area Associate yourself with favorable policies Do not mention issue weakness

Examples of Issue Ads The Bear in the Woods in 1984Bear Mike Huckabee and Chuck Norris...Chuck Norris Hillary Clinton- Attack/Issue AdAttack/Issue Ad

Attack Ads The Norm Rather than the Exception The Mother of all Attack AdsMother

The Effect of Attack ads on voters Some voters become disenchanted and disaffected Your Base Loves them!

How Effective are these If they didn’t work, candidates wouldn’t run them The Lessons of 1988 – The Revolving DoorDoor – Willie HortonHorton

Why They Work and Who uses them more We don’t trust politicians They are more memorable and informativememorable Challengers and vulnerable incumbents use them

How To Deal with them Defend the ChargesCharges Counterattack on the same issue or up the ante- The Puppy AdPuppy Attack the Credibility of your opponentCredibility

How not to deal with them Do Nothing If you get Punched in the nose, you must punch back

How the attack can backfire If you are seen as being too evil

Ads Can Backfire You Do it too Early…. The Lesson from 2012 You do it too late to make a difference You bring a knife to a gun fight

The New Media Innovative in 2008 Candidates had a lot to like They didn’t like the anarchy

Social Media in 2012 No new Innovations Obama Retains the social media advantage More Control More negative

You have No Friends on Social Media

Changes for the Future

THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE It will Survive

Why No Change To Difficult to Amend the Constitution The Fear of Unanticipated Consequences

The Map Favors the Democrats

District Plan Maine and Nebraska use this system Popular with the party that Controls the House of Representatives Could pass without an amendment

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact Would provide a back door to 538 Popular after 2000 Momentum has Slowed Now largely partisan

Why No Change Institutional Difficulties More hits than Misses Unanticipated Consequences

WHAT OF THE PRIMARIES AND CONVENTIONS

The Republicans Didn’t Like their 2008 Rules Didn’t Like their 2012 Rules Will Reevaluate for 2016

The Conventions The late convention is no longer a financial positive Low Ratings, Low Excitement 3 Days and earlier Dates

Big Money Outcome Corporations have stayed quiet Develop new strategies Big $ likely to stay

WAS 2012 PART OF A REALIGNMENT?

Short Term Deviations Congressional Elections Weaker partisan ties Poor challengers These can result in a landslide for one party

REALIGNMENTS How To Wreck a Party

What is a Realignment A Durable shift in voting Patterns The New Party Kills the Old Majority Parties become minorities

Who Switches in a Realignment Hard Cores do not switch Independents do New Voters Weak partisans become strong Partisans

What Causes a Realignment Economic or social crisis Failure of the party to interpret change A changed electorate

The Policy Implications A mandate for change Major New Policies Continued electoral success

Options for the Losers Ignore the issue Try to absorb it Change

A THEORY OF CRITICAL ELECTIONS Good Times

Kinds of Realignments Secular Realignments- happen over time Regional Realignments Critical Elections

MaintainingDeviating ConvertingRealigning same change VICTORYDefeat Types of Election Majority Party

A Realigning Election The Actual Critical Election – 1800 – 1860 – 1896 – 1930 High Intensity High Turnout

A Maintaining Election A boring election The party in power remains in power 1936, 1940, 1944, 1948, 1960

Deviating Election The Out party does well No shift in long term partisanship Caused by short-term factors 1912, 1916, 1952, 1956

Converting Election The out party is gaining seats The precursor to a realignment (1930) The majority party keeps control.

WAS A REALIGNMENT?

The Parties have been Competitive Republicans President- 72, 80, 84, , 2004 (24 years) Senate , (18 years) House , years Democrats President- 76, 92, 96, 08,12 (20 years) Senate , , (22 years) House , (26 years)

Supporters of A Realignment Does it meet the criteria?

Criteria 1.A realignment gives rise to new dominant voter cleavage over interests ideological tendencies or issues 2.A realignment is preceded or contemporaneous with a good showing by a third party

Criteria II 3.Voter Turnout is higher in a realigning election 4.Electoral Realignments bring about long spans of unified party control of the government

Criteria III 5.A realignment brings about sharp and durable changes in the electorate Realignments do not take vacations