INCOME INVESTING IN A GLOBAL DEBT CRISIS ROGER S. CONRAD AAII WASHINGTON 2012.

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Presentation transcript:

INCOME INVESTING IN A GLOBAL DEBT CRISIS ROGER S. CONRAD AAII WASHINGTON 2012

WHERE WE STAND INVEST FOR 2012, NOT 1932 NO INFLATION US ECONOMY GROWING SLOWLY SENTIMENT BETTER BUT SKITTISH STRONG WILL SURGE, WEAK WILL STUMBLE

CHEAP MONEY

STOCKS FIRST ONLY LIVABLE YIELDS DIVIDEND GROWTH ACCELERATES CONSERVATIVE IS COOL DIVERSIFICATION AND BALANCE OFFSET RISKS MUST LIVE WITH VOLATILITY

ECONOMIC SENSITIVE NOT FOLLOWING INTEREST RATES RE-PRICING RISK TO DIVIDENDS RALLY BEGAN IN OCTOBER: NOT EVERYTHING IS A BARGAIN NOW WATCH REVENUE RELIABILITY, NEAR-TERM DEBT

HOW THEY RATE BUY THE BUSINESS PAYOUT RATIO: WHAT IS PROFIT? DEBT: WHAT’S COMING DUE? REVENUE: RELIABLE AND TRANSPARENT VALUE AT PRICE

WHERE THE BUYS ARE UTILITY BEDROCK MLPS: PROFIT IN PIPES HIGH YIELD COMMUNICATIONS CONSERVATIVE CANADA BARGAINS DOWN UNDER BIG YIELD HUNTING

MLP PROFITS,MASSIVE DEMAND FOR SHALE A LACK OF INFRASTRUCTURE CHEAP CAPITAL INVESTMENT = DIVIDEND GROWTH BEST: GEL, ETP, BPL, NS WATCH THE PRICE: EPD, KMP A WORD ON TAXES

UTILITY BEDROCK CAPITAL SPENDING + REGULATORY SUPPORT = HIGHER PROFITS, DIVIDENDS, SHARE PRICES BEST: EXC, D, WTR KEY RISK: WATCH THE REGULATORS

THE DATA EXPLOSION

BETTING ON CONNECTIVITY GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY BOOM BIG PLAYERS BENEFIT MOST HIGH YIELDS ABOUND T, VZ, WIN KEY RISK: TRANSITION FROM 20 TH CENTURY WIRES

CANADIAN YIELDS LEGACY OF INCOME TRUSTS = THE DISCIPLINE OF DIVIDENDS SOLID COUNTRY/SOLID CURRENCY RETURN TO DIVIDEND GROWTH COMING TO NEW YORK AT, JE, STB, PWE PBNPF, BRPFF

BARGAINS DOWN UNDER SOLID COUNTRY/SOLID CURRENCY DIVIDEND FRIENDLY/RESOURCE RICH APA (APAJF), TLS (TLSYY) A WORD ON FOREIGN DIVIDEND TAXES

BIG YIELD HUNTING RISK PERCEPTION DRIVES PRICE RISK CAN BE OVER-PRICED BARGAINS BEST WHEN GLOOM IS GREATEST TEF, NMM

AVOIDING BLOWUPS AVOID CARRIED INTEREST MLPS, LONG MATURITIES, BLACK BOXES KEEP UP WITH YOUR COMPANIES LEAVE EMOTION OUT OF IT: NO POLITICS, NO AVERAGING DOWN, NO STOPS CUT LOSSES

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