22 July 2013 U.S. IOOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Testbed IOOS COASTAL OCEAN MODELING TESTBED (COMT) Rick Luettich, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Don Wright, Liz Smith, Southeast Univ. Research Association (SURA) Becky Baltes, NOAA Integrated Ocean Observing System Office Rich Signell, US Geological Survey

COMT Beginning 2 “Certain ocean prediction system development and evaluation activities involve federal, academic and private sector participants,……. Examples include: …..; design and operation of model testbeds (“model evaluation environments”);…” Ocean.US The Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Modeling and Analysis Workshop Report, Ocean.US Publication No. 18, 21 pp.

COMT Mission 3 Targeted R&D to accelerate the transfer of scientific and technical advancements to improved operational products and services

COMT Mission 4 Targeted R&D to accelerate the transfer of scientific and technical advancements to improved operational products and services Research to Operations

COMT Mission 5 Targeted R&D to accelerate the transfer of scientific and technical advancements to improved operational products and services Research to Operations Operations to Research

COMT Characteristics 6 Operational broadly interpreted = predictive? Quantitative data on the behavior and implementation requirements of models Organized archive of observations, model inputs and model results Tools that leverage or define community standards - efficient access, visualization, skill assessment and other evaluation of models Research environment where researchers and operational agencies can work together

COMT V1.0 7 Led by Southeast Universities Research Association (SURA) 5 teams, 64 scientists/analysts Multi-sector engagement (federal agency, academia, industry) started 6/1/ manuscripts submitted for JGR Special Issue 2/ accepted 7/ Coastal Inundation Rick Luettich, UNC-CH Gulf & Atlantic Coast Shelf Hypoxia John Harding, USM Katja Fennel, UD Gulf of Mexico Cyber Infrastructure Eoin Howlett, ASA Sara Graves, UAH Testbed Advisory Rich Signell, USGS Evaluation Group Estuarine Hypoxia Chesapeake Bay Carl Friedrichs, VIMS Marjy Friedrichs, VIMS

Estuarine Hypoxia – Chesapeake Bay Project Lead: Carl Friedrichs -> Marjy Friedrichs, VIMS Evaluate coupled hydrodynamic and water quality models in use or in consideration for use for operations (incl. regulation) 5 Hydrodynamic models 5 Biogeochemical / DO models Improvements in model skill for predicting time & location of hypoxia Ensemble mean better skill predicting “dead zone” Transition of simple DO model to NOAA CSDL CBOFS model

Shelf Hypoxia – Northern Gulf of Mexico Project Lead: John Harding, NGI -> Katja Fennel, Dalhousie Evaluate and advance a coupled hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model for nowcast / forecasts of shelf physical and ecosystem processes. Improved skill in hydrologic conditions, not in dissolved oxygen Hypoxia sensitive to stratification and biogeochemical submodel Considerable sensitivity to uncertainty in physical model forcings TAMU ROMSNOAA NGOM NRL IASNFS NCOMNRL/FSU HYCOM Initiation / evolution of hypoxic events on synoptic timescales

Storm Surge / Inundation Project Lead: Rick Luettich, UNC Evaluate the behavior and implementation requirements of coastal models of tides, surge, waves, inundation Models  FVCOM/SWAVE  SELFE/WWM  ADCIRC/SWAN  WWIII Wave-current interaction major impact on coastal circulation Nested Gulf of Maine – extratropical storms in 2005, 2007, 2010 Nested unstructured grids 1.67 km

2D is fine, horizontal resolution is critical Storm Surge / Inundation Models (2D & 3D)  FVCOM/SWAVE  SELFE/WWM  ADCIRC/SWAN  SLOSH/SWAN Significance of “Surge Forerunner” - Hurricane Ike Unstructured models comparable results, ADCIRC fastest & most features SLOSH overall fastest, least accurate Gulf of Mexico – hurricanes Rita (2005), Ike (2008)

Cyber-Infrastructure Project Lead: Eoin Howlett, ASA & Sarah Graves, UAH Develop data standards, particularly for unstructured grids Develop a testbed data archive and tools access to observed data, forcing, model input deliver results for model analysis, comparison, visualization, and evaluation – NCTOOLBOX, IMEDS capabilities to manipulate model output on unstructured grids project web portal & front end for data archive

COMT 2.0 – Status Spring / Summer 2012 COMT Terms of Reference – NOAA IOOS Identification of Priorities – NOAA IOOS December 2012 FFO by NOAA IOOS – with priorities SURA solicited Letters of Interest, ~30 received January 2013 SURA encouraged 16 project proposals 14 proposals received, independently reviewed by SRAC February yr projects selected for SURA’s proposal ($3.7M / 2 yrs) May 2013 SURA responded to comments from NOAA IOOS review June 2013 COMT approved for 2 years, probable start date 9/1/2013, funding unspecified.

COMT 2.0 – Proposed Projects Chesapeake Bay Ecological Forecasting PI - Marjy Friedrichs (VIMS/W&M) Integration of US West Coast Operational Coastal and Ocean Models PI - Alex Kuropov (Oregon State University). Puerto Rico/U.S. Virgin Islands Surge and Wave Inundation Predictions PI - Andre Van der Westhuysen (NOAA/NCEP) Northern Gulf of Mexico Ecological Forecasting PI - Katja Fennel (Dalhousie University). “Cyberinfrastructure” PI - Eoin Howlette (ASA).

COMT 2.0 – Science and Requirements Advisory Committee (SRAC) John Allen - Professor Emeritus, Oregon State University Dale Haidvogel - Professor, Rutgers University Eileen Hofman - Professor, Old Dominion University Greg Jacobs - Head, Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Branch, Naval Research Laboratory Chris Massey - US Army Eng. Research & Development Center Coastal & Hydraulics Lab Huijie Xue - Professor, University of Maine Aijun Zhang - Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, NOS/NOAA

COMT 2.0 – Proposed Projects This objective of this proposal is to address the NOAA needs identified in the COMT FFO supplemental information to: (1)improve cyber infrastructure; (2)evolve community standards; (3)assess model and forecast systems; and (4)assess data assimilation techniques.

COMT 2.0 – Proposed Projects (i) Chesapeake Bay Ecological Forecasting assess the readiness and maturity of a suite of existing coastal ecological community models for determining past, present and future hypoxia events within the Chesapeake Bay, in an effort to accelerate the transition of hypoxia model formulations from research to Federal operational centers. primary objective of this project is the incorporation of an enhanced dissolved oxygen formulation embedded within an improved version of NOAA’s Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecasting System (CBOFS). The model will be available to the NOAA Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services for consideration during their scheduled 2014 replacement of the current version of CBOFS. second objective is to create an invaluable resource to both researchers and managers by archiving results from multi-decadal runs from a suite of state-of-the-art models of the Chesapeake Bay on the COMT server.

COMT 2.0 – Proposed Projects (ii) Integration of US West Coast Operational Coastal and Ocean Models goal is to integrate three existing operational models of the coastal and ocean waters of the US West Coast to provide a coordinated super- regional modeling capability that can be used to evaluate important modeling methodologies and implementation details and that can be transitioned to NOAA NOS for pre-operational trials. objectives are to: 1.evaluate data assimilation schemes applied presently with the west coast models; 2.improve data-driven predictions through determination of best lateral boundary conditions; 3.assess the potential for existing coupled biogeochemical-physical models to provide useful ecological forecasts; 4.perform model-model and model-data comparisons for our ocean forecasts using COMT cyber-infrastructure tools and; 5.contribute to development of a testbed for coupled biogeochemical models.

COMT 2.0 – Proposed Projects (iii) Puerto Rico/US Virgin Islands Inundation and Wave Forecasting goal is to extend the present wave/surge operational forecasting capability from mild-sloped coastal areas such as the US East and Gulf of Mexico coasts to steep-sloped areas such as around Caribbean and Pacific islands and transition this capability to NOAA’s National Hurricane Center and local WFOs. objectives are to: 1.compile a data set of observations collected around Puerto Rico and the USVI by the IOOS Caribbean Regional Association; 2.evaluate multiple, coupled wave/surge/inundation models against this data; 3.recommend the most suitable model for transition to operations; and 4.assist with the transition.

COMT 2.0 – Proposed Projects (iv) Northern Gulf of Mexico Ecological Forecasting goal is to implement and demonstrate a real-time hypoxia forecasting system applicable to the hypoxia-prone Northern Gulf of Mexico. objectives are to carry out an inter comparison of three models: 1.ROMS and its native hypoxia module; 2.FVCOM coupled with the ROMS hypoxia module; and 3.the Navy’s NCOM coupled with the Gulf Ecology Model (GEM). Deliverables will include: 1.demonstration of a seasonal and short-term forecasting system for hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico; 2.pre-operational implementation of the system at NOAA Coastal Survey Development Laboratory (CSDL); 3.Retroactive analyses of forecasts against observations; 4.Hypoxia estimates for scenarios with different river nutrient loads and physical forcing; and 5.Inter-comparison of the three models assessing their ability to simulate hypoxia.

COMT 2.0 – Proposed Projects (v) Cyber Infrastructure goal of the cyber infrastructure team is to develop tools to support modeling at operational centers and the broader modeling community and to provide support the four COMT modeling teams. Objectives are 1.server and data management; 2.maintenance of cyber tool kits 3.facilitation of skill assessment and advanced visualization services.

COMT 2.0 – Proposed Projects (1)Chesapeake Bay Ecological Forecasting - assess and advance the operational readiness of a suite of existing coastal ecological community models; (2)Integration of US West Coast Operational Coastal and Ocean Models - integrate 3 existing quasi-operational models of the coastal and ocean waters of the US West Coast to provide a coordinated super-regional modeling capability as a precursor to a full West Coast operational forecast system; (3)Puerto Rico/US Virgin Islands Inundation and Wave Forecasting - extend current wave – surge prediction capabilities from mild-sloped coastal areas to steep-sloped, reef-fringed Caribbean islands; (4)Northern Gulf of Mexico Ecological Forecasting - implement and demonstrate a real-time hypoxia forecasting system for the Northern Gulf; and (5)Cyber infrastructure - advance tools available to support operational modeling and to support the four COMT modeling projects.

COMT 1.0 – JGR Special Issue Status Special Section: U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System Coastal Ocean Modeling Testbed Proposer: OPEN 6/1/12CLOSED 8/31/12 NEW 12/31/12Rick Luettich DEADLINE EXTENDED CLOSED IN GEMS Created on AuthorMS NumberMS TitleSubmission DateCurrent StageCurrent Stage DateDecision Huang, Yong2012JC008451RR Gulf of Mexico hurricane wave simulations using SWAN: Bulk formula based drag coefficient sensitivity for Hurricane Ike6/12/13 Manuscript Sent to Production6/22/13Acceptable in present form Fennel, Katja2012JC008493R Sensitivity of hypoxia predictions for the Northern Gulf of Mexico to sediment oxygen consumption and model nesting12/10/12 Manuscript Sent to Production1/8/13Acceptable in present form Marta-Almeida, Martinho2012JC008512R Evaluation of model nesting performance on the Texas-Louisiana continental shelf1/25/13 Manuscript Sent to Production3/14/13Acceptable in present form Mattern, Jann Paul2012JC008529R Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Model Hypoxia Estimates for the Texas- Louisiana Shelf2/7/13 Manuscript Sent to Production2/19/13Acceptable in present form Scully, Malcolm E.2012JC008664R Physical Controls on Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay: A numerical modeling study2/18/13 Manuscript Sent to Production2/20/13Acceptable in present form Sun, Yunfang2012JC008737R Impact of Current-Wave Interaction on Storm Surge Simulation: A Case Study for Hurricane Bob4/5/13 Manuscript Sent to Production4/19/13Acceptable in present form Wilkin, John L.2013JC008746R An assessment of the skill of real-time models of Middle Atlantic Bight continental shelf circulation4/26/13 Manuscript Sent to Production4/30/13Acceptable in present form Chen, Changsheng2013JC IOOS/SURA Extratropical Storm Inundation Testbed: Inter-model (ADCIRC, FVCOM and SELFE) comparisons in Scituate, Massachusetts2/13/13 Waiting for Revision4/12/13Major revisions needed Shen, Jian2013JC008859R Linking dynamics of transport timescale and variations of hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay6/6/13 Waiting for Potential Reviewer Assignment7/10/13 Zheng, Lianyuan2013JC008861R Implications from the comparisons between two- and three-dimensional model simulations of the Hurricane Ike storm surge4/30/13 Manuscript Sent to Production5/21/13Acceptable in present form Beardsley, Robert C.2013JC Coastal flooding in Scituate (MA): a FVCOM study of the Dec. 27, 2010 nor'easter2/17/13 Waiting for Revision4/25/13Major revisions needed

COMT 1.0 – JGR Special Issue Status Special Section: U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System Coastal Ocean Modeling Testbed Proposer: OPEN 6/1/12CLOSED 8/31/12 NEW 12/31/12Rick Luettich DEADLINE EXTENDED CLOSED IN GEMS Created on AuthorMS NumberMS TitleSubmission DateCurrent StageCurrent Stage DateDecision Harding, John2013JC Initial evaluations of a U.S. Navy operational Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean ocean forecast system in the context of a coastal ocean modeling testbed2/18/13 Decision Sent to Author4/29/13Reject Hope, Mark Edward2013JC008879R Hindcast and Validation of Hurricane Ike (2008) Waves, Forerunner, and Storm Surge7/9/13 Waiting to Send Decision to Author7/12/13Acceptable in present form Perrie, William2013JC Modelling North Atlantic Nor'easters with Modern Wave Forecast Models3/13/13 Decision Sent to Author4/29/13Reject Luettich, Rick2013JC The U.S. IOOS Super-regional Coastal Ocean Modeling Testbed: Implementation and Overview of Findings3/15/13 Waiting for Revision4/29/13Minor revisions needed Kerr, Patrick C2013JC U.S. IOOS Coastal & Ocean Modeling Testbed: Inter-Model Evaluation of Tides, Waves, and Hurricane Surge in the Gulf of Mexico3/15/13 Waiting for Revision7/10/13Major revisions needed Kerr, Patrick C2013JC008941R U.S. IOOS Coastal and Ocean Modeling Testbed: Evaluation of Tide, Wave, and Hurricane Surge Response Sensitivities to Mesh Resolution and Friction in the Gulf of Mexico6/21/13 Manuscript Sent to Production7/9/13Acceptable in present form Bever, Aaron J.2013JC008942R Combining observations and numerical model results to improve estimates of hypoxic volume within the Chesapeake Bay, USA7/10/13 Waiting for Potential Reviewer Assignment7/10/13 Teng, Yi-cheng2013JC The Effect of Sediment Stratification on the Formation of Forerunner during Hurricane Ike Storm Surge in the Gulf of Mexico3/18/13 Decision Sent to Author5/30/13Reject and Encourage Resubmission Lehrter, John2013JC Nutrient distributions, transport pathways, and fate on the inner margin of a river-dominated continental shelf3/18/13 Waiting for Revision6/17/13Minor revisions needed Long, Wen2013JC A New Model Skill Assessment Metric Based on Discrete Frechet Distance3/18/13 Decision Sent to Author4/29/13Reject