WTO Accession & Russia’s Agri-Food Sector Eu.Serova Analytical Centre AFE International Agricultural Trade and Sustainable Development in Southeast Asia October 31, 2005

Narrative story of Russian Accession Narrative story of Russian Accession 1990 – USSR GATT observer mid-1992 – Russian Federation GATT observer June President Yeltsyn’s official statement on intention to access, Working Group on Russia’s WTO Accession set up December official application for accession April negotiating process approved by the State Duma start of agricultural negotiations of Accession

Current Russian negotiation position Base period AMS – US$9 bln Bound tariff 19% Export subsidies

Russian negotiation position Russia: PSE,% Russian negotiation position Russia: PSE,%

Russian negotiation position Russia: AMS=US 9 $ bln

Russian negotiation position AMS/ha

Russian negotiation position Russia: import tariff TRQ: beef and pork Volume quota: poultry Variable import duty: sugar

Russian negotiation position import tariffstructure Russian negotiation position import tariff structure USAEU-15JapanBrazilMexicoKenyaIndiaRussiaMean Median Min Max Std. deviation # of tariff lines

Russian negotiation position Russia: effect of tiered formula Current tariff Negotiated initial bound tariff New Agreement final tariff t 1 =at 0 /(a+t 0 ) a=5a=15a=50 Meat Fish Dairy Sugar

Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food sector Russia: share of green box measures in total ag. budget

Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food sector Share of green box policies costs in GDP, 1997, %

Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food sector ag. budget structure

Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food sector export taxes

Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food sector ag.growth

Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food sector food industry growth

Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food sector trade