Drought in the West: Short-Range Forecasts to Assist with Local and Regional Planning Douglas Le Comte NOAA/CPC Association of Bay Area Governments: Water/Land.

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Presentation transcript:

Drought in the West: Short-Range Forecasts to Assist with Local and Regional Planning Douglas Le Comte NOAA/CPC Association of Bay Area Governments: Water/Land Use Collaboration August 7, 2008

Outline Current Drought SituationCurrent Drought Situation Medium Range and Seasonal ForecastsMedium Range and Seasonal Forecasts Historical PerspectiveHistorical Perspective Climate ChangeClimate Change Dust Event Honda Proving Center June Cantil CA

Water Year Precipitation / California Climate Data Archive High Plains Regional Climate Center

Wet Winter…Dry Spring

Recent U.S. Drought Monitor

Western Snowpack 2008 vs

Western Streamflow Forecasts

California Drought Summary (from Dep’t of Water Resources Executive Summary) Water Year precipitation = 85% of averageWater Year precipitation = 85% of average Runoff = 60% of averageRunoff = 60% of average Reservoirs = 75% of averageReservoirs = 75% of average For Northern Sierra, March-June = driest since records began in 1921 (3.4 in)For Northern Sierra, March-June = driest since records began in 1921 (3.4 in)

Two Looks at the Current Drought: How Bad? Multimodel Soil Moisture Percentiles (83 years of data) Aug. 3, 2008 Palmer Hydro Drought Index Arguably, the 4 th “worst” drought since 1900!

Historical Drought: River Runoff since

The Seasonal Drought Outlook

Web Resources for Drought and Forecasts Climate Prediction Center for Medium and Long Range Forecasts:Climate Prediction Center for Medium and Long Range Forecasts: National Integrated Drought Informaton System for the new drought portal: Integrated Drought Informaton System for the new drought portal: California Applications Program and the California Climate Change Center: Applications Program and the California Climate Change Center: California Climate Tracker: mon/index.htmlCalifornia Climate Tracker: mon/index.html Drought Impact Reporter droughtreporter.unl.edu CPC NIDIS

ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) Status: Neutral Thru Aug 3, La Nina last winter

El Nino and La Nina Winter (Jan-Mar) Precipitation El Nino La Nina Frequency of occurrence

A majority of ENSO forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral conditions through Northern Hemisphere spring Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 15 July 2008).

6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Rainfall /

CPC Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts / ASO SON ONDNDJ

CPC Winter Outlook DJF DJFJFM

Experimental University of Washington Forecasts Current Runoff Forecast for Oct. 26, 2008 (Based on historical data) Improvement Tendency for improvement based on this experimental forecast.

Palmer Drought Probabilities to October 2008 Courtesy R. Tinker, CPC

Climate Division (C.D.) C. D. Name July 2008 PHDI July 2008 PHDI Percentile July 2008 Nominal Drought Monitor (D. M.) Equivalent Like-Cases Chance for 1+ D. M. Equivalent Improvement by March 2009 Like-Cases Chance for March 2009 PHDI > 30 th Percentile (D0+ D.M. Equiv.) CA01 North Coast D272%67% CA02Sacramento D460%40% CA03 Northeast Interior D036%46% CA04 Central Coast D170%70% CA05 San Joaquin D390%50% CA06 South Coast D253%42% CA07 Southeast Desert D160%60% Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index (PHDI) Statistics for California Climate Divisions for California Climate Divisions Potential March 2009 Conditions Based on July 2008 Conditions & July-March Changes Following Past July’s with Similar Conditions Good odds for (Palmer) drought ending coastal areas next winter

CFS* Model Winter Forecast Probability of Anomalous Precipitation (as of Aug. 5) Tilt toward below normal in CA and the SW *Coupled (or Climate) Forecast System Bottom line: History suggests significant relief unlikely before December, and forecasts for next winter are ambivalent, but some dynamic models are tilting dry.

Climate Model Forecasts:Precipitation California Climate Change Center Precipitation forecast uncertain for next few decades

California Climate Model Forecasts: Temperature Temperatures should keep going up

Projected Annual Runoff Less runoff for California and the Southwest

“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” Niels Bohr, Danish physicist (not Yogi Berra)