Taming Uncertainties in Multi-Scale Pest and Disease Model and Decision Support Tools for Plant Biosecurity Award number: Period of Funding: Jan – Dec Primary Institution: Oregon State University Project Director: Leonard B. Coop Other Principle Investigators: Chris Daly Oregon State University Alan Fox Fox Weather Dave Gent USDA-ARS Gary Grove Washington State University Doug Gubler University California, Davis Paul Jepson Oregon State University Walter Mahaffee USDA-ARS William Pfender USDA-ARS George Taylor Oregon State University

Taming Uncertainties in Multi-Scale Pest and Disease Model and Decision Support Tools for Plant Biosecurity Goal: To document the uncertainties and errors associated with all aspects of disease modeling, while building a system that can serve both plant biosecurity and integrated pest management (IPM) needs in the Western US. - We are presently 18 months into this 3-year program, and have made significant progress in the areas of 1) Spatialized weather forecasting systems relevant to plant disease modeling needs 2) Infrastructure for pest and plant disease modeling 3) Targeted climatologies 4) Field validations and uncertainty analyses.

1) Spatialized weather forecasting systems relevant to plant disease modeling needs Forecast #1 – IPPC server S. WA + OR Forecast #2 – Fox weather server – N. Calif. Current Forecast Extent

. 10,000+ public weather station data QA NOAA GFS/NAM model forecasts Fox Weather/IPPC models + PRISM Climate models WRF mesoscale model Kim et al. leaf wetness model Database of modular pest models Site-specific pest and disease model-relevant weather forecasts Web GIS User Interface 1. Plant Biosecurity 2. IPM Process Inputs Outputs 1. Plant Disease Forecast System Overview Uncertainties reports Uncertainties analysis 100 km 6hr -> 7 days 800m 1hr 36 km

Disease model and forecast infrastructure – building upon IPPC/NPDN website tools

Disease weather system prototype (NPDN)

Fox Weather /IPPC plant disease weather forecast verification system - day0 to day6 forecasts - near real time entire forecast region (ex. OR + S. WA)

Online Plant Disease Model Forecast + Evaluation Tool – e. g. comparison of 3 days Fox Weather forecast with actual data for: -apple scab -powdery mildew - temperature -leaf wetness I grant permission to USDA/CSREES to use this information for communicating about this project.

NRI PRISM-Aided Downscaling Methods and Activities PRISM Group Oregon State University An analysis and prediction system is being developed that taps the ability of long-term climatological patterns to inform estimates of current and forecast weather patterns

, all-day monthly PRISM Climatologies

E flow example: cyclonic curvature June 5, UTC NE flow example: cyclonic curvature February 5, UTC

Relative importance of 700-mb flow direction in NWOR Frequency Precipitation

NW Flow all-day mean annual precipitation expressed as a percentage of the domain-wide mean precipitation itation

Percent of the normalized all-day mean annual precipitation Climo PRISM S (Southerly) 700-mb flow mean annual precipitation Percent of the domain-wide precipitation

NW flow mean annual precipitation climatology (Expressed as percent of the domain-wide precipitation) 700-mb NW flow Example Targeted Climatology - January 31, UTC I grant permission to USDA/CSREES to use this information for communicating about this project.

Field Validation Work (1 of 6 validation partners funded; others seeking additional support) CropCoordinating Plant Pathologist Hops Dave Gent USDA-ARS CherriesGary Grove Washington State University WinegrapesDoug Gubler University California, Davis StrawberriesWalter Mahaffee USDA-ARS Grass SeedWilliam Pfender USDA-ARS -weather data are collected in canopy and at standard heights and positions out of canopy -for error and uncertainties analysis and development of correction curves for each weather parameter

Taming Uncertainties in Multi-Scale Pest and Disease Model and Decision Support Tools for Plant Biosecurity 1) Spatialized weather forecasting systems relevant to plant disease modeling needs 2) Infrastructure for pest and plant disease modeling 3) Targeted climatologies 4) Field validations and uncertainty analyses. Additional and Future efforts: - Planning operational tests of forecasts/models for 2008 in selected tree fruit and grass seed regions - Test of first targeted climatologies system for 2008 in Oregon grass seed - Submitted Areawide IPM proposal to greatly expand operational capability of the system in numerous commodities and regions - Check out APS posters for Western Weather Systems Workgroup, Grass Seed Stem Rust model and uncertainties analysis