Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015 Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Wednesday April 22 nd 2015

Climate Summary since April 1 st 2015: Temperature (departure from normal) Precipitation (percentage of normal)

Climate Summary since Jan 1 st 2015: Temperature (departure from normal) Precipitation (percentage of normal)

Pendleton Airport Rainfall Accumulation Summary since Jan 1 st 2015:

El Nino Status as of March 5 th 2015: ENSO Status: El Nino Advisory “In summary, there is an approximately 50-60% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer Due to the expected weak strength, widespread or significant global impacts are not anticipated.” -from March 5 th 2015 El Nino Diagnostic Discussion

Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Remainder of April 2015 Most likely scenario: Temperature varied Temperatures Precipitation Most likely scenario: Wet north

Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlook May 2015 Most likely scenario: Warm Temperatures Precipitation Most likely scenario: No clear trend foreseen

Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlook June and July 2015 Temperatures Precipitation Most likely scenario: Dry west of Cascades but not inland. Most likely scenario: Unusually warm temperatures continue

NWCC Predictive Services outlook : May 2015 The Northwest Geographic Area is out of fire season. Fire danger indices are not sufficiently elevated to support unusual risk of Significant Fires in the region. Even during spells of dry weather, conditions in April and May are historically not conducive to large, costly wildfires.

NWCC Predictive Services outlook : June and July 2015 Elevated risk of large, costly fires (mainly from lightning) is expected to expand northward from California into Oregon and Washington in June and cover most of the region by July. This designation of elevated Significant Fire risk is based on warm temperatures, low snowpack, and early greenup.

NWCC Predictive Services note : Due to poor snowpack at higher elevations and generally dry conditions since the first of the year, fire management units are advised to use caution during prescribed burns in windy weather.

Next Outlook: May 4 th 2015