ARB Vision: CTP 2040 Scenarios Historical context: Based on ANL model inspiration 2009-2011 LDV GHG scenarios for ACC / ZEV Regulation 2012 Vision 1 with criteria emissions added, more sectors 2013-2014 Vision 2 model development in support of the SIP Caltrans ctp tac meeting October 23, 2014

Definition: “scenario planning” Wikipedia: “Strategic planning method…to make flexible long-term plans” “Systems thinking…[to evaluate] surprising futures” International Energy Agency (IEA): “Identify technology portfolios” U.S. Department of Energy: “Identifying the range of possibilities of trends and policies” “Developing a shared understanding of a problem” 2 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

How scenario results are used in ARB policy decisions Long-term scenario emission results: Are not intended to define single “path”, but rather identify “trends” of most promising (and risky) strategies Acknowledge multiple strategy combinations exist to achieve goals; with some uncertainty Improve understanding of transportation system impacts (e.g. fuel infrastructure, cross-sector technologies, & activity changes) 3 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

Vision model to evaluate scenarios 4 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

Model overview: user input choices & summary results Vehicle Efficiency Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Emissions of Criteria Pollutants and GHGs Fuels (Conventional & Alternative) Energy Consumption Scenarios include multiple individual strategies in the areas of activity reductions, technology, and alt fuels Activity and land-use policies Mobile source and fuels regulations Freight transport planning Advanced Technology Advanced Tech. Vehicle Populations Transportation System Efficiencies Advanced Tech. Annually from 2010 - 2050 5 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

Sectors in vision model 2.0 Mobile Sectors Already Included Passenger vehicles Heavy-duty vehicles (on-road) Freight locomotives Aviation Stationary Sources Already Included Fuel production for transportation and buildings Residential and commercial buildings Mobile Sectors Under Development Cargo handling equipment Commercial harbor craft Commercial ships (ocean going vessels) Construction equipment Other off-road vehicles 6 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

BASIC MODEL STRUCTURE Sector In-use Fleet Population (derived from inputs) Vehicle Emissions “Tank to Wheel” (running, evap, etc) Example Results: (for each veh type) gNOx/mi gROG/mi gCO2e/mi Fuel demand from each fleet (gallons, kWh, etc) Upstream Emissions, “Well to Tank” Example Results: (for each fuel type) gNOx/gallon gROG/gallon gCO2e/gallon Example Results: Gallons gas/yr Gallons dsl/yr kWh elec/yr 7 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

Model & Data coordination for ctp2040 8 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

Models, data handoffs, etc Caltrans CSTDM MPO data, EMFAC 2011 predominantly Alt 1 (baseline), Alt 2 (VMT strategies) ARB EMFAC 2014 Speed bin and VMT changes – scale base EFs ARB Vision 2.0 Already has default EMFAC 2014 embedded Scale EF from speed bin changes, CTP VMT Alt 3: Add new technology and alternative fuels 9 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

Models, data handoffs, etc CSTDM EMFAC 2014 Vision 2.0 VMT aggregated into 4 veh bundles 2010, ‘20, ‘35, ’40 By county By speed bin Disaggregate VMT to all vehicle classes Extrapolate all years Result: TTW CO2e by veh class & year EMFAC 2014 import: VMT by veh class EF by veh class For all years Statewide Rail Plan Aviation Plan 10 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

Three ctp2040 alternatives Vision results for all three alternatives Use CTP modes; add other Vision modes for context Alternative 1 - Baseline CTP2040 baseline VMT CTP2040 LDV, HDV, Passenger rail, passenger air Alternative 2 – Caltrans VMT strategies Only variable – reduced VMT Alternative 3 – Advanced veh & fuel strategies To fill GHG gap to 2050 May show various combinations to reach same GHG 11 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

Example results from previous vision model (public staff reports) 12 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

2012 scenarios: Combined Results Statewide GHG Emissions South Coast NOx Emissions The overall results shown here reveal the range of emission reductions identified in staff’s scenarios. The shaded area signifies that a number of scenarios were explored with a range of reductions achieved. The “business as usual” scenario assumes all existing state policies are successful. For NOx, the graph shows the enormous reductions expected in the next ten years from existing rules. The scenario results here show that the 2050 GHG target is successfully met. The 2050 South Coast NOx target is successfully met The 2023 and 2032 NOx targets are eventually met, but not within the timeframe set in existing policy Achieving the 2023 ozone standards by the target year requires extremely aggressive market transformation. Few samples of sector trends are highlighted below to provide context for the scale of transformation: Passenger vehicles: Approximately 30 percent of all passenger vehicles would need to be zero emissions vehicles and approximately 40 percent would need to be near-zero emissions vehicles.   Trucks: Approximately 20 percent of all trucks operating in California would need to be zero emission trucks, 20 percent would need to be near-zero emission trucks, and more than 50 percent would need to be cleaner than the current NOx standard. Locomotives: Approximately 30 percent of locomotives would need to be Tier 4 and 70 percent would need to be even cleaner than Tier 4 Targets BAU = business as usual (existing policies) 13 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

2012 Scenario BAU: statewide ghg emissions Emission Targets 14 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

2012 Scenario 2: statewide ghg emissions ~30% Below 1990 15 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

2012 Scenario bau: south coast nox emissions Emission Targets 16 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

2012 Scenario 3: south coast nox emissions Emission Targets 17 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

2009 statewide ghg scenario: LDV fleet technology mix FCVs ICEs ZEV only 79% HEVs PHEVs BEVs ZEV+PHEV Sales ZEV+ PHEV ZEV Reg 87% 18 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

2012 Scenario 3: SCAB HDV fleet technology mix 19 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

2012 scenario 3: fuel supply transformation ARB, Oct 23, 2014

Fuels transformation: implications for ctp2040 21 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

integrated transportation systems perspective CTP 2040 Modal Plans Highway Transit Aviation Rail Freight Reduce VMT Efficient Operation of System Approaches Low Carbon Fuels Advanced Vehicle Tech Reduced VMT: Integrally tied to land use, trip pricing Transportation system: Transportation infrastructure, facilities, Modes, Infrastructure for ITS systems, autonomous vehicles New Nexus / System Issue: Alt fuel infrastructure Road network – Truck trips for feedstocks and fuel stations VMT from adv vehicles – where they fuel, park, etc Facilities – fuel depots for multi-modes (e.g. freight) 22 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

Fuel transformation: regional implications Fuel production facilities and delivery occur locally to varying degrees. Activities and land-use will change TODAY 23 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

Fuel transformation: regional implications TOMORROW: Biofuels - More feedstock truck trips TOMORROW: Hydrogen - More fuel delivery truck trips 24 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

Fuel transformation: regional implications TODAY TOMORROW: Electricity Most fueling at home, some at work Different trip profile for fueling (work, retail) 25 ARB, Oct 23, 2014

Scenario results: fueling infrastructure impacts Long-term scenario result: Expansive alternative fuel use H2 stations for LDVs: 1,118 stations by 2030 * Based on station size: 500 kg/day capacity @ 90% utilization & 1kg/d/veh Today: 17 H2 stations in CA (30 – 120 kg/day capacity each) Renewable Diesel: 20 new biofuel refineries by 2030 ** Based on refinery size: 50 million gallons/yr (mgpy) capacity Today: 3 ethanol production facilities in CA @ 50 mgpy (imported corn) Similar needs for: Electric chargers, CNG, LNG stations Near-term potential policy action(s): Create infrastructure roadmap, with CEC, PUC, Caltrans Focus on: H2, Electric chargers, CNG, LNG * 503,000 FCVs on-road by 2030 ** ~1 billion gallons RD by 2030 26 ARB, Oct 23, 2014