LTE: When Worlds Collide Scott A. Snyder, PhD Decision Strategies International (610)

Topics Defining 4G How we got here? –Evolution, Lessons Learned What will shape the future? –Drivers and Scenarios What are the implications for different players? –Carriers, Devices, Apps, Content, Other What will be the keys to success?

Defining 4G… 100 Mbps Mobile/1 Gbps Fixed Global Roaming with other active Wireless Standards (2G, 3G, WLAN, etc.) IP Interoperability with other Wireless and Wireline Networks End-to-end QoS and AAA Management Open APIs for Service Creation Dynamic Spectrum Use Supports Different Network Topologies (Star, Mesh, AdHoc/P2P) Supports Traffic from Humans, Machines, Sensors, and Agents User-centric Services Model LTE is only part of 4G

©Scott A. Snyder 2009 Enabling 4G Technologies Broadband Networks (LTE, WiMax, etc.) Software-defined Radio (SDR) Smart Antennas (Adaptive, MIMO, others) Mobile AdHoc Networking (MANET) Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) Location-based Services Network Interoperability (FMC, IP, etc.) End-to-end QoS Information Assurance

“Technology giveth and technology taketh away. No business model, art form, or practice has an inherent right to exist: it has to fit in with the social, technological, and market realities of its day.” – Paul Miller, Web Evangelist

The Danger in Predicting Technology… Like many emerging technologies, wireless looked unattractive and uneconomical at the outset until consumers understood the true value of mobility.

The Convoluted Path to 4G

“Predicting the future of the mobile market is like going to PetSmart and trying to select a goldfish that won’t die in the 20 min it takes you to drive it home and put it in a fish bowl.” – Chris Wilson, Planting in the Mobile Market

©Scott A. Snyder 2009 Many Factors will Shape the 4G Future 4G Future Privacy/ Security IP Regimes Generation Z Low-end Disruption Smart Mob Seamless Mobility Cognitive Devices BioConvergenceDistributed Authority Very Small Objects

Possible Future Scenarios for 4G

What happens to Market Power? Wireless Operators Device Vendors Operating System Vendors Content/Application Vendors Internet Portals/Social Nets Killer Bees (Carrier-centric) Nature Aligns (User-centric)

“When you piece together these different technological, economic, and social components, the result is an infrastructure that makes certain kinds of human actions possible that were never possible before.” - Howard Rheingold, Smart Mobs

4G = Digital Swarm 4G “If you're looking for a role model in a world of complexity, you could do worse than to imitate a bee.” – Thomas Seely, Bee Expert

Potential 4G Killer Apps? Interactive Multi-player gaming Video Entertainment Concierge Services Distributed Decision-Support Immersive Touring Interactive education and training Pervasive Healthcare Remote Sensing, Monitoring, and Control Polling and Prediction Markets Distributed Supply Chain Personal security Content Management from multiple devices and sources Context-aware Retail Emergency Service Coordination Organization/People Tracking

Retail/ Financial Entertainment/ Media Healthcare Security/ Defense Transportation SmartHome BioSensors Biometrics Portable Health Records Remote Diagnostics Health Monitoring Location-based Advertising Pervasive Retail Remote Healthcare Personal Diagnostics Telemedicine Patient Compliance Energy/ Environment Demand Management Grid Monitoring Building Control Generation Monitoring 4G Wireless eWallet Fitness Monitoring Pervasive Entertainment 4G Innovation will Occur at the Intersections Nav/Traffic Management Surveillance Tactical Sensors Distributed Gaming

Adaptive Strategy for 4G Services

“Rowe’s Rule: The odds are 5 to 6 that the light at the end of the tunnel is the headlight of an oncoming train” - Paul Dickson, Washingtonian, Nov G networks (including LTE) need a strategy that can quickly switch tracks and avoid a train wreck!