Is Sustainable Development Feasible? including (maybe) Hurricane Katrina: a development failure? Dr John C Mutter

The world is "on an unsustainable trajectory. Politics is central but we have almost no politics on this issue. We're fighting all the wrong wars. We haven't even started to fight the wars on poverty, disease, and environmental degradation” J.D. Sachs 2006

the “gap between science and society is profound and extraordinarily dangerous... These [issues of sustainability] are scientific problems first and foremost. We will require massive improvements in science and technology and their applications, if nine billion people are to live better lives. Without improvements, we'll have war and violence and benighted global disarray."

By development we mean ….the challenge of spreading social, political and economic opportunity to the entire global community, particularly the poorest of the poor.

By sustainable we mean …. ……managing the world’s development in a manner consistent with the continued healthy functioning of the Earth’s ecosystems, oceans, atmosphere and climate.

The divide today richpoor GNP PPP/person $26,320$4,450 population (billion) % increase/year % with HIV/AIDS infant mortality rate 6/100059/1000 children/woman life expectancy 7665 % urban 7641 people/km

Global GDP per capita for the last 3000 yrs

Global GDP per capita PPP adjusted

Territory displayed in proportion to GDP GDP Wealth (Source: China’s wealth doubles every 7 yrs India’s wealth doubles every 10 yrs

Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate Wealth increases (Source: China’s wealth doubles every 7 yrs India’s wealth doubles every 10 yrs

Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate Wealth decreases (Source:

Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate Living on less $10 a day (Source:

Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate Living on less $1 a day (Source:

Disasters and the poorest Does this have to be? Kararo Ethiopia

Collecting water near Kararo Ethiopia

Disasters and the poorest Does this have to be?

Can our science help people like this …… Can our science help people like this ……

Kararo Village Ethiopia

Can our science help people like this …… Can our science help people like this ……

A summary composite index that measures a country's average achievements in three basic aspects of human development: LONGEVITY -- life expectancy at birth; KNOWLEDGE -- a combination of the adult literacy rate and the combined primary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrolment ratio; STANDARD of LIVING -- GDP per capita (Adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity, PPP, in US$). HDI is a more comprehensive measure of deprivation than income. The UNDP Human Development Index (HDI)

Young female illiteracy

Growth in tertiary education

Scientific research output (publications)

Life expectancy at birth

Infant Mortality

Infant mortality

Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate Maternal mortality

HDI World distribution

Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate Development decreases (Source:

Territory displayed in proportion to wealth GDP vs HDI GDP HDI

GDP per capita as a function of latitude. Poverty has a latitudinal dependence (J. Sachs)

HDI versus latitude

Why this slope?

What causes this development gap?

No chance correlation Environment matters to human well being

Malthus was not entirely right

Malaria mortality Regions burdened by malaria cannot achieve development

Bad governance is only part of the problem Most conflict regions today are poor Some corrupt countries do develop

CORRUPTION LEVELS COMPARABLE TO ASIA Increasing CorruptionDecreasing Corruption Economic Growth Africa Asia Ghana China Senegal Rwanda India Mali TanzaniaMalawi Vietnam Uganda Cambodia Ethiopia Indonesia Kenya Pakistan Nigeria Bangladesh

Post-cold war conflicts wrt GDP as of 2004 Most conflict regions today are poor

Conflict-related mortality Regions in conflict cannot achieve development of any kind

Drought mortality Africa remains almost the only place where drought kills

Drought in the Sahal More than a decade of persistent drought in area like HoA

Climate variability and Malaria risk in Botswana Environmental stress > Scarcity > Conflict

Environmental factors and economic performance

Simple growth models Regions burdened by malria cannot achieve development From Kiminori Matsuyama

Simple growth models Regions burdened by malria cannot achieve development Richer countries Poor countries Poverty traps Growth

Poverty Trap   A self perpetuating condition in the economy of a country in which poverty becomes the driver of further poverty   Considered to be a low level equilibrium condition - a trap   Many environmental factors can lead to the creation of poverty traps   Poor countries are NOT embryonic rich countries waiting their turn; they have fundamentally different characteristics and must be treated differently

Poverty trap causes Family child labor Illiteracy Debt bondage Under-nutrition/illness Low skill High fertility Subsistence Farm erosion (soil depletion) Common property mismanagement Crime Working capital Mental health Conflict Gender inequality

Basic questions Regions burdened by malria cannot achieve development Can growth be sustained ? Can growth be achieved?

Can development be achieved ? Can development be sustained?

By prefacing with sustainable, we refer to the objective of managing the world’s development in a manner consistent with the continued healthy functioning of the Earth’s ecosystems, oceans, atmosphere and climate.

To do nothing more than close the development gap between the top and the bottom (no growth at the top and no population increase) would mean a 4-fold increase in world economic output.

Add 1.5 billion people (3 billion is more likely) and allow the top to continue to grow and prosper at current rates, then closing the development gap requires a 6 -Fold increase in world economic output.

BUT …… Economic optimists note that since the industrial revolution the world economic output has increased 40 Fold (some say 50) and population has increased only 4 Fold. So, on average, we are 10 times better off than we were before the industrial revolution. No problem!

But ……. the industrial era growth in prosperity has been very uneven (the great divergence) and was achieved at a time when resources needed for growth were essentially limitless. Ample evidence now suggests that limits are being approached and the ideal world development may be unattainable.

Sustainability issues Hitting environmental boundary conditions that can turn off growth, perhaps very suddenly. System is deeply interconnected and non-linear and likely has cascading multipliers -- tipping points Limits may not signal their arrival -- collapse can be rapid with no precursor Climate Change, Water, Food and Agriculture, Biodiversity Energy, Urbanization, Population,

Ecological debtors and creditors >50% in debt > 50% in credit

Ecological footprint by region Neutral

Water stress indicator

Carbon dioxide per capita 2002 Carbon dioxide emissions per capita 2002

Carbon dioxide per capita by country

Many measures of this sort abound in the literature all of which imply that the developing world cannot catch up to the top billion along the pathway that got us here without very alarming consequences for the future of the planet.

Basic questions Regions burdened by malria cannot achieve development Can growth be sustained ? Can growth be achieved?

Can development be achieved ? Can development be sustained?

1. Disease Ecology Depends on Economics Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

2. Economics Depends on Disease Ecology Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.

Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases … forms poverty trap Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I. I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases … forms poverty trap Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I. I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases … forms poverty trap Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I. I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases … forms poverty trap Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I. I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases … forms poverty trap Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I. I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases … forms poverty trap Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I. I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases … forms poverty trap M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I. I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases … forms poverty trap Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I. I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

Poverty Trap Economic Growth Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases … forms poverty trap Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I. I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

Poverty Trap Economic Growth Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases … forms poverty trap Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I. I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

The human health poverty trap Poor people are at greater risk of ill health and … … poor health increases the likelihood of becoming poor. Establishes a self-perpetuating state that differs from health issue for the rich