Recreation Economic Studies of Lake Mead & the Grand Canyon of the Colorado John Duffield Chris Neher David Patterson University of Montana Lake Mead Symposium March 5-6, 2012 Las Vegas, NV

 Introduction  NPS Objectives  Phase II Findings and Data Gaps  Survey  Modeling Visitation and Water Levels Outline

 Develop Comprehensive values for NPS resources in the Colorado River Watershed (CRW)  Estimate NPS values as a function of water allocations.  Integrated economic-hydrologic tools for NPS to fully participate in CRW water policy. Overall Project Objectives

Ecosystem Services Management - Conservation - Use & enjoyment Visitor Use Nonuse Values Economic Impact Benefit- Cost Linkages between CRW Recreation Resources and the Economy

Phase I. White paper. Phase II. Review & synthesis existing studies and data sets, identify data gaps. Phase III. Original research in two areas: direct use- regional economics, nonuse values. Phase IV. Integrate economics & hydrology, application to water allocation policies, user friendly model, publications. Organization of Study

 Market and nonmarket values  Direct use values - consumptive (hunting, fishing…) - nonconsumptive (boating, scenic..)  Nonuse values: existence & bequest  Two accounting frameworks: social benefit-cost, regional economics Types of NPS Resource Values

Summary of Existing Literature on Visitor Expenditures and Regional Economic Impacts

 Glen Canyon Environmental Studies, began 1982  Bishop et al – direct use in Grand Canyon river corridor  Operation of Glen Canyon Dam EIS, began 1989  Welsh et al – nonuse values in river corridor  EIS 1995, Record of Decision 1996 Key Previous Research on Water-related CRW NPS Resources

Estimates of Colorado River Unit Direct Recreational Values StudyDescriptionNEV Estimate (2005 $ per visit) Bishop et al. (1987) Study of values of Grand Canyon - float boaters (CVM) $236-$1,653 per trip depending on river flow level (1985$) $430 - $3,000 Hammer (2001) Study of Grand Canyon – Floaters (TCM) $134 per trip (private) $314 per trip (commercial) $157 (private) $368 (comm.) Martin (1982)Study of Lake Mead - Fishing Values (TCM) $44.63 to $61.44 per angler day (1978-9$) $643 - $887 Douglas and Johnson (2004) Travel Cost study of Lake Powell – Recreationists (TCM) $ $ per visit consumer surplus (1997 $) $86 - $194 Duffield & Neher (1999) a Visitor survey of Glen Canyon NRA and Grand Canyon NP Visitors. (CVM) Glen Canyon NRA - $384 per party trip Grand Canyon NP - $319 per party trip (1988$) Glen Canyon $109 Grand Canyon $142 Douglas and Harpman (2004) Survey of Glen Canyon - improved trip quality scenarios (angler harvest, water quality) $8.63 to $38.92 per visit b (1997 $) $11 - $47

Bishop (1997) Relationship Between NEV and Flow Levels on Grand Canyon Float

Visitor Survey-Based Colorado R. Unit Expenditure Data Park UnitStudiesExpenditure Estimates (study year $) Expenditure Estimates (2005 $ per visit) Glen Canyon NRA Douglas and Harpman (1994)$61 - $187 per person (1985)$111 - $340 Douglas and Johnson (2004)$ per person (1997)$146 Duffield and Neher (1998)$202 per party day (1998)$187 Lake Mead NRA Borden et al. (2003)$59.02 per person day (2003)$174 Martin et al. 1982$43.00 per angler$122 Grand Canyon NP MGM2, Visitor Services Project$1,388 per visit (2003)$1,471 Arizona Hospitality Study$1,131 per party (2005)$333 Harpman (1995)$215-$510 per person (1995)$275 - $652 Douglas and Harpman (1994)$517 - $1427 per person (1985)$941 - $2,597 Duffield and Neher (1998)$198 per party day (1998)$197 Hjerpe & Kim (2007)$680-$1,001 per person (2001)$750-$1.104

Is Sufficient Information Available Now to Conduct Economic Analysis? Park Unit Produce Regional Economic Impacts for Water-based Visitation? Estimate Marginal Impacts of Water level on Regional Economics? Produce Direct Use Total Value Estimates for Water-based Visitation? Estimate Marginal Impacts of Water level on NEV? Estimated Passive Use Values? Glen Canyon NRA Lake Powell YES PARTIALNO Colo. River (Glen-Lee’s) DATED NO Lake Mead NRA Lake Mead NO Lake Mojave YES NO Curecanti NRA NO Grand Canyon NP Grand Canyon Float DATED DATED / UNCERTAIN PARTIAL/ DATED DATED Dinosaur NM Yampa & Green River NO Canyonlands NP Cataract Canyon NO

Population to be SurveyedSurvey Question Valuation Methods Proposed Sample Size (contacts) Grand Canyon Whitewater Boaters CV, Conjoint1,800 Anglers (Lee’s to GC Dam)CV, Conjoint400 Anglers (Badger to Lee’s)CV, Conjoint70 Lake MeadCV, Conjoint. RUM1,000 Lake PowellCV, Conjoint, RUM1,000 Passive Household SurveyCV, Conjoint3,750 Planned Colorado River Survey

Additional Analysis Using Existing Data

Lake Mead Elevation: Interim Surplus Criteria Alternatives. (Source, Wheeler et al. 2002)

 Dependent variable: Monthly visitation  Explanatory variables: Month indicator variables, average lake volume, interaction terms for summer and shoulder season months and volume  VOLUME t=2.50  SHOULDER * VOLUME t=5.90  SUMMER * VOLUME t=13.03  R-Square0.987  N=132 Lake Powell Visitation-Water Volume Model:

Plot of Wahweap Marina Annual Receipts and Average Lake Powell Levels Annual Data Wahweap Marina Receipts Average Lake Powell Volume WahweapLake Powell

Lake Mead Visitation-Volume Model: Monthly Data, Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Observations192 CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-value Intercept 266,814 22, Volume Summer 245,764 14, Shoulder 168,055 13,

Plot of Lake Mead Annual Visitation (Observed v. Predicted) and Lake Volume