Emission projections for NEC Gases – Ireland’s approach Stephan Leinert, Bernard Hyde, Eimear Cotter

Overview nIntroduction nGeneral approach nTransport nAgriculture nSolvents nConclusions

Approach to emissions projections for NEC gases nConsistency with national energy forecast nConsistency with GHG projections nConsistency with inventories (e.g. emission factors, car fleet mileage)

Emissions Energy related: nPower generation nRoad transport nIndustrial combustion nResidential nCommercial & Institutional Services nFuel use in agriculture Non-energy related: nAgriculture (NH 3 ) nAgriculture (NMVOC) nSolvent emissions nStorage and distribution of oil products

Source category (green: non energy related) NOxSO 2 NMVOCNH 3 Energy Industries Power GenerationXXX Oil RefiningXXX Peat briquettingXXX Industry Industrial CombustionXXX Solvent and Other Product Use X Transport Road TransportXXXX Domestic and International Aviation (LTO’s)XXX Rail TransportXXX NavigationXXX Other Transport (Pipeline Compressors)X ResidentialXXX Commercial and Institutional ServicesXXX Agricultural CombustionXXX Storage and Distribution of Oil Products (Fugitive emissions) X Agriculture Manure Management X Agricultural Soils XX Source categories for projections

Energy Forecast – Institutional/procedural arangements ESRI Economic and Social Research Institute SEI Sustainable Energy Ireland EPA Environmental Protection Agency ESRI Energy Forecast ESRI Macroeconomic Forecast SEI National Energy Forecasts Policy assumptions EPA Disaggregate fuel data Apply emission factors => NEC projections

Emission Scenarios With Measures emission projection All existing policies and measures Baseline energy forecast published December 2008 Projected animal numbers – produced November 2008 With Additional Measures emission projection All existing and planned policies and measures White Paper energy forecast published December 2008 Economic ShockSensitivity Analysis on With Measures scenario to show impact of the more recent economic deterioration

Assumptions underpinning Energy Forecasts n With Measures and n With Additional Measures projections are both based on ESRI Credit Crunch Scenario (2008). n Economic Shock is based on a sensitivity study on the With Measures scenario, to give an indication of the impact of a further contraction in the economy

NO x inventories and projections NO x / kt Power Generation % Residential & Commercial % Industrial % Agriculture & Forestry % Transport % Other % Total % nStrong decrease in Powergen NO x emissions both absolute and as fraction of total; projected to continue nIncrease of Transport NO x emissons both absolute and as fraction of total nTransport NO x emissions projected to decrease in absolute terms; will still be major contributing sector

Overview nIntroduction nGeneral approach nTransport nAgriculture nSolvents nConclusions

Road transport – general approach nUsing COPERT 4, v6.1 nInput: population, mileage etc nConsistency with last year’s inventory – e.g. mileage and speeds nConsistency/agreement within about 1% of statistical fuel consumption (energy forecast) and calculated fuel consumption (COPERT)

COPERT input – car population Car fleet: nStart from last inventories population nApply decay factor (function of age of car) nGrow total in line with growth in fuel usage (as a starting point) nNewly registered cars as differential between total car number and existing cars nAssume new cars meet the required standards

COPERT input – car population 2007: last inventory year decay+20%0%-10%-20%-30%-40% First registration inventory projection

COPERT input – car population 2007: last inventory year decay+20%0%-10%-20%-30%-40% fuel+5%0%+5%+10%+5% First registration projection

COPERT input – LDV, HDV, bus, coach nLDV similar to cars nHDV total number growth at fixed rate (rather than in line with fuel forcast) nBuses/coaches total number growth at fixed rate (average over last few years)

Road transport – different scenarios nWith Measures (Baseline) scenario is constructed first n With Additional Measures (White Paper) and n Economic Shock are derived from With Measures scenario nusing With Measures fleet population nadjusting mileage to achieve agreement between statistical fuel use (energy forecast) and calculated fuel use (COPERT)

Road transport – challenges nBalance the aim for consistency with energy forecast, and consistency with e.g. inventory nFuel tourism nData availability

Other transport nRail is not included in the energy forecast. Emission projections are developed in consultation with Irish Rail. nAviation not included in the energy forecast. Emission projections are developed in consultation with Dublin Airport Authority. nNavigation emissions are assumed to stay constant.

Agriculture “There are a lot of sheep in Ireland…”

Agriculture “There are a lot of sheep in Ireland…” Reality is that cattle outnumber sheep – and NH 3 emissions associated with cattle make up about 80% of NH 3 emissions.

NH 3 – Agriculture contribution nAlmost all NH 3 from agriculture nAround 80% attributable to cattle, very stable nFurther decrease for total NH 3 emissions projected nFraction attributable to cattle staying at about 80% NH 3 / kt Cattle Total

Approach – Projections Input Data nProjected animal numbers, crop areas and fertiliser use statistics nFAPRI – Ireland Partnership nFood and Agriculture Policy Research Institute nProduce objective analysis of agricultural policy options based on economic models of commodity markets

Advantages of Irish Approach (Agriculture) nUse of inventory model to project forward nData required and supplied generally at aggregation of the inventory nTransparent and straight-forward nEasy to implement sub-sector changes and examine scenarios

Overview nIntroduction nGeneral approach nTransport nAgriculture nSolvents nConclusions

Solvents and other product use i. Paint application ii. Degreasing and Dry Cleaning Per capita emissions are assumed constant, thus growth in line with population growth. iii. Chemical Products iv. Other Solvent Uses Per capita emissions were declining since 1990 – trend assumed to go forward.

Overview nIntroduction nGeneral approach nTransport nAgriculture nSolvents nConclusions

Overall conclusions: Advantages of Irish Approach nConsistency with inventories/historic data nEmission factors nSame model (e.g. NH 3 agriculture, road traffic/COPERT) nConsistency with national energy forecast nConsistency with GHG projections

Overall conclusions: Disadvantages of Irish Approach nRequires detailed activity data statistics (e.g. agriculture) nTransport projection is not straight forward nFuel tourism causes conflict between nConsistency with energy forecast for fuel and nrealistic car population/mileage nEnergy forecast currently at aggregated level (no breakdown within fuel types yet)

Thank you for your attention.

Approach – Inventory Input Data Cattle Sheep Poultry Dairy cowsLowland ewesLayers Suckler cowsUpland ewesBroilers Male cattle < 1 yearRams Turkeys Male cattle 1-2 yearsLambs Male cattle > 2 yearsOther livestock Female cattle < 1 yearPigsHorses Female cattle 1-2 yearsSows in pigMules and Asses Female cattle > 2 yearsSows for breedingGoats Bulls for breedingGilts in pig Dairy in-calf heifersGilts notyet servedOther Data Beef in-calf heifersFattening pigs < 20kgManure Management statistics Fattening pigs > 20kgFertilzer use statistics NH 3 emission estimates Sludge application to land