What is the future of rabies control in Europe? How models can help GC Smith, HH Thulke, AR Fooks, M Artois, DW Macdonald, D Eisinger, T Selhorst

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Reduced cost vaccine strategy ? Baits are expensive EU fund greater proportion or will less baits work? Current bait density = 70% immunity Recent work suggests 60% = 1/3 reduction in baits This needs to be tested in the field.

Raccoon dog rabies ? Raccoon dogs spreading west Raccoon dog density increasing Raccoon dogs make rabies epizootic more intense (equivalent to increasing fox density) If no hibernation (climate change): rabies harder to control Is a new vaccine strategy required? Examine cost effectiveness.

Vaccinate to protect border ? Push vaccination across all of Asia (wildlife rabies) Stop at some border Not consider politics Do need to examine economics !

Optimum vaccine strategy ? Rabies free Rabies endemic

Optimum vaccine strategy ? Rabies free Rabies endemic

Optimum vaccine strategy ? Rabies free Rabies endemic

Best emergency vaccine strategy ? EU recommendation 25-50km radius of vaccination Increased fox density & Increased raccoon dog density Emergency strategy effectively untried Theoretical density limit where vaccine works.

Effect of single baiting campaign -2

Best emergency vaccine strategy ? EU recommendation 25-50km radius of vaccination Increased fox density & Increased raccoon dog density Emergency strategy effectively untried Theoretical density limit where vaccine works What is the limit? Do we exceed it anywhere?

Conclusion Is a new vaccine strategy required? Examine economics of rabies control Test any new strategy in the field Is current emergency strategy OK? What is the density limit for vaccination ? Current models can answer these questions