GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 National Risk Assessment: Project Overview Dr. Carlos Villacis GRIP Coordinator

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Purposes and Objectives Scope and Context Main Activities Key Outputs Implementation Work timeline Topics

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Purposes and Objectives –National DRR strategies –National planning development programs and investments –Budget and resource allocation Users/Beneficiaries –National authorities –National institutions and agencies –International Organizations

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Geological Hazards –Earthquake (primary) – 1:150,000 –Landslides (secondary) – 1:50,000 Hydro-meteorological Hazards –Floods – scale 1:150,000; –Drought – scale 1:150,000 or smaller; –Tropical Cyclones – scale 1:100,000 Scope – Multi-hazard

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Mayon Volcano: the most active volcano in Philippines, 150 miles south of Manila, > 2400 meters (~8,000 feet) tall. Typhoon Durian: Nov. 30, 2006 Torrential rains Mudslides Death Toll: >1000 Houses destroyed: 66,191 + buried houses Recent eruption: February 28, 2006 Mayon Mudflow Disaster, Philippines

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Lesson learnt from Mayon Mudflow Disaster, Philippines –Disaster preparedness based on multi- hazards assessment; –Hazard assessment from a systems perspective.

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Population – urban, rural (age, gender, income) Buildings – residential, commercial, industrial, public Livelihoods – industry, agriculture, tourism Critical facilities – health system, schools, governmental, police, fire stations Lifelines – roads, bridges, airports, ports, railways, sewage, telecommunications, power, etc Scope – Multi-sectors

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Step 1: Country situation analysis (SIERA) Step 2: Hazard assessment Step 3: Exposure assessment Step 4: Vulnerability assessment Step 5: Risk analysis and profiling Step 6: Identification of risk reduction measures Step 7: Delineation of National DRR strategy Main Activities - Overview

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Step 1: Country Situation Analysis –Systematic inventory of existing data and studies –Integration of existing studies –Gap and needs identification –Coordination mechanism Step 2: Hazard Assessment –Identification of sources (active seismic faults, cyclone track patterns, precipitation patterns) –Identification of hazard-prone areas based on historic data –Characterization of hazards (in terms of probability and intensity) –Development of probabilistic hazard and event intensity maps (return periods = 25, 50, 100, 200, 500 years); –Development of hazard zonation maps Main Activities - Tasks

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Step 3: Exposure Assessment –Categorization of exposed elements at risk (population, infrastructure, livelihoods, critical facilities lifelines) –Exposure surface models using dasymetric mapping method or grid approach Step 4: Vulnerability Assessment –Compilation of vulnerability functions for all the categories of elements at risk (based on historic damage patterns) –Comprehensive damage-loss algorithms for each category of elements at risk Main Activities - Tasks

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Step 5: Risk Analysis and Profiling –Probable maximum losses (PMLs) (return periods = 25, 50, 100, 200, 500 years); –Risk expressed in terms of human impact (mortality) and financial impact (absolute value and fraction of GNP) –Risk aggregation to district or county level –Risk profiling by hazard, district, return period –Thematic risk profiles (social, productive, infrastructure) –Composite risk profiles (multi-hazard) for relevant return periods Main Activities - Tasks

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Step 6: Identification of risk reduction measures –High-risk areas –Risks to avoidance, reduction, transfer, retention (preparedness) –Cost-effective analysis Step 7: Delineation of National DRR strategy –Priority, budget allocation, programmes Main Activities - Tasks

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 National disaster risk profiles including national risk atlas Comprehensive DRR measures National standards and methodologies National Risk Information System –Risk assessment results are readily available to all potential users National capacity –National team for risk assessment –Understanding and application of risk assessment results Key Results

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 How long will it take? –24 months Who implements NRA? –National working group under supervision of relevant national authorities and with extensive supports from Multi- stakeholders Implementation

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Who should be involved

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Project Components Component 1: CSA using SIERA Component 2: Data integration & production Component 3: Disaster risk mapping & profiling Component 4: Application development Component 5: Outreach

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Work Plan

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Summary NRA is a strategic risk assessment aiming to support national decision/policy makers to shape national DRR strategy and action plans NRA should be multi-hazard, and comparable and aggregatable NRA is a 7-step process An integrated governance and coordination mechanism is highly essential to the success of a NRA exercise.

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Any Questions?