L.S. Rathore Integrated Agro-Meteorological Advisory Service in India Head Agriculture Meteorology India Meteorological Department Ministry of Earth Sciences lsrathore@ncmrwf.gov.in lrathore@gmail.com

Outline……… Conceptual Frame of AAS Operational AAS System Agro-Met Information Dissemination Endorsement & Appreciation Outreach Awareness & Feedback Capacity Building Economic Impact Future Plans

Why AAS About 75% people are dependent on Agriculture. About 43% land is used for agricultural activity. Agriculture continues to play a major role in Economy. Agriculture is highly sensitive to weather & its variability. Minor climatic variations have major impact on farm output Over next 30 years food production needs to be doubled. AAS Provides weather & climatic information along with farm management options Advisories empower farmers to climate risk minimization. Provide access to dynamic technological development

Variability in Weather/Climate impacting Agriculture Increased Heat/Cold Wave Increased variability of R/F Increased Extremes Weather Events Erratic Onset, advance and retrieval of Monsoon Shift in Active/break cycles Intensity and frequency of Monsoon lows/depressions

Heavy precipitation events in India have increased during last 50 years Heavy rainfall events (>10cm) Very heavy rainfall events (>15cm) Light to moderate rainfall events (5-100 mm) Source: IITM, Goswami et al. 2006; data is the frequency in each of 143 grids in the region 5

Information Needs of Farmers Local agro-climate & its variability Weather forecast Short & Medium Range Extended range Seasonal Scale Climate Prediction Pest/disease prognosis & control measures Advice on sowing/harvest, cultivar selection, farm input management & intercultural operations

Strategies to Empower Farmers for Weather Based Decision making Generate information on Weather & Climate (Observations & Forecast) Impact of likely weather on crop Impact of likely weather on P&D Weather based input management Weather sensitivity of farm operations Develop decision making Tools: Data base Crop/Soil/P&D Modeling Remote Sensing & GIS Crop/Soil Monitoring, Drought Monitoring etc. Disseminate information Outreach, capacity building, Feedback

CHALLENGES Weather Forecast : Agriculture : Skillful, Quantitative, Locale Specific, Seamless Agriculture : Crop/Livestock/P&D conditions assessment Diagnose Weather Related Stress Weather Sensitivity of Crops & Management Practices Decision Support Tools for Translating Weather Forecast into Advisories Advisory Dissemination, Outreach & Feedback Synergistic Collaboration among Participating agencies

AAS: Evolution 1932: Division of Ag. Meteorology 1945: Farmer’s weather Bulletin 1976: Agro-Met Advisory Service (state level 1991: Medium range Wx forecast based advisories at agro-climatic zone level (127) 2007: Integrated AAS at IMD, Ministry of Earth Sciences 2008: Launched District Level Advisories 2011: Experimental Block Level Forecast

Operational Agro-Meteorology Service Goal: Locale & Crop specific Advisory & Farmer Level Outreach TIER 1 Apex Policy Planning Body, Delhi TIER 2 National Agromet Service HQ Execution, Pune TIER 3 State Agromet Centres (28) Coordination/Monitoring TIER 4 Agromet Field Units Agroclimatic Zone Level (130) TIER 5 District Level Extension and Training Input Management as advisory~640 Network of 130 Agromet Field Units Network of AAS units in the country

Integrated AAS 130 AMFUs with SAUs & ICAR 5-days Forecast + weekly outlook District Agromet Advisory Every Tuesday & Friday State & National Composite bulletin Smart Dissemination System Feedback Economic Impact Assessment Monitoring (Review Meetings) AAS awareness & user interaction programs

Agro Met R&D back up: ICAR 25 Centers of AICRP on Agro Meteorology Located at SAUs with AAS of NCMRWF R&D in Agromet Agromet data bank & Website

Collaborating Agencies Ministry Of Earth Sciences India Meteorological Department National Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasting Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Indian Council For Agricultural Research Department Of Agriculture & Cooperation State Departments Of Agriculture State Agricultural Universities And Other Universities Ministry of Information Technology Ministry of Science & Technology Ministry of Information & Broadcasting (AIR & TV) Print Media Department Of Space Min. of Rural Development NGOs & Private Agencies

Multi-model Super Ensemble Technique Generation of Multi-Analysis Weights Step-1 NCEP JMA ECMWF NCMRWF UKMO Observed Gridded Field Weight for each grid of each Model (W) 14

Generation of Multi-Model Forecasts Step-2 NCEP JMA ECMWF NCMRWF UKMO Forecast (F)= WiFi + D D= Value addition

AN INTEGRATED SCHEME FOR PREPARATION OF LOCATION SPECIFIC WEATHER FORECAST Panel Direct Model Synoptic Interpretation Output Forecast Statistical Forecaster’s Panel Final Forecast

IMD Multi-model Ensemble (MME) based District level Forecasts Parameters: Rainfall Max & Min temperature Total cloud cover Surface Relative Humidity Surface Wind

District Level Agro-Met Advisory Service System IMD PREPARATION OF DISTRICT WISE MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECAST BY STATE MET CENTRE Agro-climate level agro-met data 130 AG.MET. FIELD UNITS PREPARATION OF DISTRICT SPECIFIC AGRO-ADVISORIES FOR CONCERNED AGRO-CLIMATIC District-wise Agro-met data DISTRICT LEVEL AGENCIES (DAO/KVK/ATMA/NGOs) DISSEMINATION OF DISTRICT LEVEL AGRO-ADVISORIES Feedback analysis FARMERS (THROUGH MEDIA AGENCIES, IT SERVICE, PERSONAL CONTACT)

Three tier Agro-met Advisory System AMFUs issue district level advisories. State Level Composite AAS Bulletins are prepared by State Meteorological Centre. National Agromet Advisory Bulletins are prepared by National Agromet Advisory Service Centre, IMD, Pune .

Agromet Advisory Bulletins National, State and District level

District Agromet Advisory Bulletin More than 550 districts are covered Bulletin is targeted for the farmers. This contains advisories for all the weather sensitive agricultural operations form sowing to harvest. It includes advisories for horticultural crops and livestock also.

State level Composite Bulletin This bulletin is prepared for the State level CWWG meeting. This is also meant for other users like Fertiliser industry, Pesticide industry, Irrigation Department, Seed Corporation, Transport and other organisations which provide inputs in agriculture.

National Agromet Advisory Bulletin The bulletin is primarily prepared for the Ministry of Agriculture for taking important decision in Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) meeting. Besides the same is also communicated to all the related Ministries (State & Central), Organisations, NGOs for their use.

The monitoring system provides following products Use of Remote Sensing Crop condition and physiological growth processes are regularly monitored to identify crop type, crop phenology, stress etc. The monitoring system provides following products Core land surface variables : Albedo, LST, all sky insolation, NDVI Derived variables: PET, AET, Soil Moisture Remote Sensing Agencies provide these inputs to AAS system.

AgroMet Information Dissemination Mass Mode of Dissemination: Print Media: Newspaper, magazine article Electronic media: Radio, Television Select User Group Dissemination; Internet: Internet posting, e-Mail (50 Web Sites) Mobile Phones: SMS, IVRS (Over 2 Million Farmers) Human face for Advisory Dissemination Extension Awareness Program, Farmer’s Fare

Forecast from IMD, New Delhi Agromet Advisory Bulletin by AMFUs Operational communication linkage between Agromet Advisory Service Unit and end-users (farmers) for effective communication Forecast from IMD, New Delhi State Met Centres Agromet Advisory Bulletin by AMFUs Postal Contact Personal Contact Radio News Papers KVK /NGOs State Agril. Dept. Farmer Television Mobile Website

Dissemination Through Mobile Phones State Govt. Maharashtra Reuter Market Light Handygo Nokia IFFCO Vritti Solution State Govt. Maharashtra Total Statewise Years → 2010 April 2011 Andhra Pradesh - 45000 57961 61298 106298 Bihar 6219 200329 Gujarat 16144 34451 400 50000 6145 46336 22689 130787 Haryana 20556 23154 700 100000 101699 32458 122955 155612 Himachal 17994 8178 Karnataka 40000 49327 60815 100815 Kerala 25000 44377 16210 41210 Madhya Pradesh 35000 39910 84466 119466 Maharashtra 119116 142780 500 80000 45902 35345 2300 3200 26000 193818 287325 Orissa 8276 73729 Punjab 43334 54260 750 27439 24392 71523 113652 Rajasthan 77162 94963 129963 Tamilnadu 68422 34005 84005 Uttar Pradesh 105000 353205 279768 384768 West Bengal 104 1625 5981 27599 6785 29224 Total 199254 256270 3050 500000 910019 1079891 1140623 1965361 Total SMS send by Agromet Field Units Dapoli, Hissar, Ranital, Anantpur, Lembucherea, Mulde 14633

Endorsements & Appreciations “ It is a Great Idea .. Do it Across the World. Great Work .. Keep It Up” Barak Obama, President, U.S.A Nov 7, 2010, Maharashtra

“Today, India is a leader in using technology to empower farmers, like those I met yesterday who get free updates on market and weather conditions on their cell phones” Barak Obama, President, U.S.A Nov.8, 2010, Joint Session of Parliament, New Delhi

Farmer Awareness Programme Farmer’s Awareness Programme on Weather, Climate and Farmers Awareness programme was organized at 50 locations in 2009. The objective of the programme is to make farmers more self-reliant in dealing with weather and climate information and to increase the interaction between farmers and AAS providing agencies i.e. IMD, SAUs, ICAR etc. The program will be organised in 80 stations by the end of 2010.

Brochure for Awareness Brochure in different languages are prepared and ready for circulation among the users Hindi Assamees Gujarati Manipuri English Nepali Oriya Punjabi Tamil Marathi

Hosting of interactive website A new interactive website launched on 15.4.11 to provide required information on AAS

Capacity Building Meteorologists (Forecaster) NWP Interpretation of model out put for Preparation of location specific weather forecast Agrometeorologists Agromet Core Course Agromet Observers Course Meteorologists Grade II Training Course Familiarization Training Refresher Course Basic Agromet Course On the Job Training AMFU Technical Officer Training Extension Officials Farmers

Linkages at District Level 130 AMFU (one in ~ 5 Districts) 589 Krishi Vigyan Kendras (Farmer’s Science Centres) in 640 Districts Transfer of recommended technologies from NARS Impart skills through orientation programs to rural masses Organize vocational trainings, demonstrate latest technologies and its refinement in farmers’ field conditions Organize demonstrations to generate awareness & feedback Agro Technology Management Agencies (ATMA) District Agriculture/Horticulture Offices Common Service Centres (Village Level) Local Media

Feedback Issues & Mechanism Feedback Collected on; Quality of Forecast & relevance of Advisories Farmer get information from Whom & How? Problem solving through interactive mode Answering questions of common interest through bulletins Accessibility to information via ICT Accessibility to Experts Mode of Feedback Collection; Through Personal Contact & Internet Through Media Agencies Prepare Questionnaire Surveys Farmers Meeting/Kisan Mela

Economic Impact Two studies conducted In general reduced cost of cultivation Fruit crops cost of cultivation marginally increased but production also increased Selecting sowing, irrigation & Pesticide application are major determinants It is also observed that the yield increased by almost 10-25% in most of the crops with maximum increase in the fruit crops Limited awareness among users.

Future Plan Establishment of District Agro-Meteorological Units Densify observational network (~33,000 AWS) Forecast at high resolution & Improvement for extreme weather Develop forewarning system for P&D Improved Dissemination Service to Crop Growers Association Application of Remote Sensing in AAS Establishment of Connectivity Training (Farmer, Extension Specialist, Scientists) Economic impact assessment Weather Based Crop Insurance

Thank you