Sustainability, Population, and Resource Depletion Richard Heinberg Post Carbon Institute October 6, 2008 Richard Heinberg Post Carbon Institute October 6, 2008

What is sustainability? 1712 “sustainable yield forestry” 1987 Brundtland Report: “development that meets current needs without jeopardizing the ability of future generations to meet theirs”

Five Axioms of Sustainability

Axiom 1 A society that continues to use resources unsustainably will collapse.

Collapse of previous civilizations Resource depletion a frequent cause Societal complexity yields benefits… but those benefits are subject to diminishing returns

Axiom 2 Population growth and/or growth in rates of consumption of resources cannot be sustained.

Axiom 3 To be sustainable, the use of renewable resources must proceed at a rate that is less than or equal to that of natural replenishment. Marine Fish Catch

topsoil World population grows 80 million people per year Erosion claims 24 billion tons of topsoil per year

Biodiversity loss

Axiom 4 To be sustainable, the use of non-renewable resources must be declining at a rate greater than or equal to the rate of depletion. US Oil Production

Winning the Energy Lottery The Fossil-Fueled Industrial Era— Winning the Energy Lottery

Global production falls when loss of output from countries in decline exceeds gains in output from those expanding Decline Expansion

New discoveries look promising… Brazil Gulf of Mexico Bakken shale (Montana) Arctic regions

But before we count new inputs, we have to subtract declines Russia’s oil production has peaked (Financial Times, April 14, 2008) Nigeria to lose a third of its oil output by 2015 (AFP, April 16, 2008)

Peak Oil means more expensive gasoline…and everything else made from oil plastics, lubricants, asphalt, ammonia, anti-histamines, antiseptics, artificial turf, aspirin, balloons, bandages, boats, bottles, bubble gum, butane, cameras, candles, car batteries, car bodies, carpet, cassette tapes, caulking, CDs, chewing gum, cold, combs/brushes, computers, contacts, cortisone, crayons, cream, denture adhesives, deodorant, detergents, dice, dishwashing liquid, dresses, dryers, electric blankets, electrician’s tape, fertilizers, fishing lures, fishing nets, fishing rods, floor wax, footballs, glues, glycerin, golf balls, guitar strings, hair coloring, hair curlers, hearing aids, heart valves, heating oil, house paint, ice chests, ink, insect repellent, insulation, jet fuel, life jackets, linoleum, lip balm, lipstick, loudspeakers, medicines, mops, motor oil, motorcycle helmets, movie film, nail polish, nylons, oil filters, paddles, paint brushes, paints, parachutes, paraffin, pens, perfumes, petroleum jelly, plastic chairs, plastic cups, plastic forks, plastic wrap, plywood adhesives, refrigerators, roller-skate wheels, roofing paper, rubber bands, rubber boots, rubber cement, rubbish bags, running shoes, saccharine, seals, shirts (non-cotton), shoe polish, shoes, shower curtains, solvents, solvents, spectacles, stereos, sweaters, table tennis balls, tape recorders, telephones, tennis rackets, thermos, tights, toilet seats, toners, toothpaste, transparencies, transparent tape, TV cabinets, typewriter/computer ribbons, tires, umbrellas, upholstery, vaporizers, vitamin capsules, volleyballs, water pipes, water skis, wax, wax paper

Peak Oil means Peak Food

Food riots in Haiti, Africa, West Bengal…

Peak Oil means the end of cheap air travel Peak Oil means the end of affordable air travel

Peak Oil may mean the end of economic growth as we have known it

“We must leave oil before it leaves us.” Fatih Birol Chief Economist International Energy Agency

It’s not just oil…

Post Carbon Institute

Depleting materials AntimonyChinaThermoelectric/paraelectric materials Barium China Thermoelectric/paraelectric materials BismuthChina, Mexico Thermoelectric/paraelectric materials CobaltKinshasa, AustraliaPhotovoltaics GalliumChinaPhotovoltaics GermaniumBelgium, CanadaPhotovoltaics IndiumChina, CanadaPhotovoltaics, thermo/paraelectric materials ManganeseGabon, S. AfricaPhotovoltaics NickelCanadaFuel cells Platinum S. AfricaFuel cells, para/thermoelectric materials Rare EarthsChinaFuel cells, para/thermoelectric materials TelluriumBelgium, GermanySolar cells, semiconductors TitaniumAustralia, S. AfricaSolar cells ZincCanada, MexicoPhotovoltaics, fuel cells

Axiom 5 Sustainability requires that substances introduced into the environment from human activities be minimized and rendered harmless to biosphere functions.

Arctic sea ice Reinforcing feedback loops Last year’s record minimum: 1 million sq. miles; previous record low was 1.5 M s/m in 2005 This year: another record rate of loss Northwest and Northeast passages open for first time in history

The Energy Transition Climate Change makes the shift from fossil fuels necessary for planetary survival Depletion and decline mean the transition cannot be avoided—our choice is whether to undertake it proactively

Inevitable future trends: Less available energy More labor needed in agriculture Need for massive relocation of people Need for massive replacement of infrastructure Question: How to accomplish this enormous societal reorganization without chaotic breakdown?

Answer: Plan for gradual, deliberate reduction in world population Reduce per-capita consumption in industrial nations Shift consumption away from non- renewables (esp. fossil fuels) Retrain & re-skill workers while investing in post-petroleum infrastructure Protect ecosystems during the transition

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