Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) Peter Chen Chief, Data-Processing and Forecasting System Division Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department THORPEX Africa Meeting Geneva 8 – 10 May 2012

Numerical simulations of the atmosphere “In general, the public is not aware that our daily weather forecasts start out as initial value problems on the major national weather services supercomputers. Numerical weather prediction provides the basic guidance for weather forecasting beyond the first few hours.” Eugenia Kalnay (2003) From: “Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and predictability” Cambridge University Press, 2003, 5th printing 2009

Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) WMO Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries (Cg-XV, 2007) “NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.” WMO Strategic Thrusts Improved Service Quality and Service Delivery Improved delivery and access to high quality weather, water, related environmental predictions, information, and services Reduced risks and potential impacts of hazards Strengthening Capacity Building

Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) WMO SWFDP Main Goals Improve Severe Weather Forecasting Improve lead-time of warnings Improve interaction of NMHSs with users: media, disaster management, civil protection authorities, various socio-economic sectors (e.g. agriculture, fisheries, etc.) “SWFDP provides a practical and beneficial platform for preparation and dissemination of multi-hazard, early warnings” SWFDP Regional Subprojects Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria) South Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington) Eastern Africa (in development, 6 countries; planned start-up 2011) Southeast Asia (in development, 4 countries) Bay of Bengal (in development, 6 countries)

SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process Global NWP centres to provide available NWP and EPS products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame; Regional centres to interpret information received from global NWP centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs; National Met. Centres maintain responsibility/authority over national warning services, issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; liaise with Disaster Management, and contribute feedback and evaluation of the project Global Centers RSMC Pretoria NMCs Disaster Management Centres 5

SWFDP – Southern Africa 16 countries, RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Réunion, Met Office UK, NCEP USA, ECMWF Example: SWFDP-Southern Africa web site (RSMC Pretoria) Since 2006 6

SWFDP – Eastern Africa Started Sept. 2011 6 Countries RSMC Nairobi & Regional Forecast Support Centre Dar-es-Salaam (Lake Victoria region) WMO Hazards: Strong winds Heavy precipitation Hazardous waves (Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria) Users: general public, disaster management, media, agriculture and fisheries Domains: 5E – 55E; 30N – 25S (for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying the various severe weather events) 31E – 36E; 2N – 4S (for the Lake Victoria) Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by TMA, UKMO and DWD National Met. Centres of: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, Ethiopia Started Sept. 2011

Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) 2 main components Warning production Warning Services Regional Centre Global Centres RSMCs-TC Global NWP/EPS and Sat-based products TC Guidance Products (risk/probability) GDPFS National Met Centres (Forecast D / D+5; Bulletins) SMS; Weather Radio Systems; Public Web; etc. General Public PWS Disaster Management and Civil Protection Specific Communication Systems Media E-mail; etc. Radio; TV

SWFDP links and synergies General Public and spec. users (Agriculture, Fisheries, Marine Safety, Aviation, etc.) Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized Applications AgM, MMO, AeM, etc. Specific Comm. Systems Flash Flood Guidance HWR Disaster Management and Civil Protection Specific Communication Systems Regional Centre Global Centres RSMCs-TC Global NWP/EPS and Sat-based products TC Guidance Products (risk/probability) GDPFS National Met Centres (Forecast D / D+5; Bulletins) PWS WWRP Research Projects Satellite Imagery and Tools WMO SP SMS; Weather Radio Systems; Public Web; etc. General Public E-mail; etc. Radio; TV Media Specific Communication Systems Disaster Management and Civil Protection

SWFDP – what have we learned? Factors for success / failures Credible, reliable, useful warning services Engagement of forecasters using new NWP/EPS tools Feedback, reporting, case studies Continuous cycle improvement, including R&D outputs Project management (accountability) Steering by CBS Accountability of participants (project management team) Sustaining the « demonstration » of matured projects Regional ownership (SADC/MASA, EAC), project leaders Service Delivery and Capacity Building (strategic thrusts) Concrete results are hard to achieve, or measure Relations with disaster management, civil protection, media organizations Visibility of NMHSs

SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings Establish a warnings programme at the NMHSs Increase lead-time and confidence in warnings and alerts issued Address high-impacts (flash-flooding, wind damage, near-shore damaging waves), and applications (e.g. AgMet) Verification Phase in other developments Forecasting gaps: Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized events Lack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h) Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations Warning services gaps: Relations disaster management, civil protection, media Warning criteria, SoP, reach, cultural, quality assurance Inadequate monitoring, verification Overall managment of warnings programme

SWFDP – Cooperating with Research … incorporating promising research outputs into real-time SWFDP demonstrations … SWFDP and WWRP Global Interactive Forecasting System (TIGGE) - Tropical Cyclone forecasting, heavy rain, week-2 predictability JWG on Forecast Verification Research WG Nowcasting Research – very short-range forecasting (< 12h) SERA – Service Delivery

SWFDP – paving the way for the future “ … next decade will continue to bring improvements, especially in … detailed short-range forecasts, using storm-scale models able to provide skillful predictions of severe weather; … “… improvement in the usefulness of medium-range forecasts, especially through use of ensemble forecasting;” - Eugenia Kalnay (2009) Goal: To further exploit the use of existing products from NWP centres, without the need (burden) of additional investment in development effort. Focus on severe weather forecasting because NWP products have become more relevant in providing advanced (lead-time) warnings and is complementary to the role of observational data as the basis for issuing warnings. Notes: SWFDP is intended to further the implementation of the GDPFS, and not a R&D initiative. Will be linked to the development of a WMO NWP Strategy for Developing Countries. Tell us how to fish Show us how to fish Fish with us Thank you! pchen@wmo.int