29 December 2015 DRAFT Operational Intelligence Preparation of the Environment (OIPE) Briefing Isla del Sol Tempest Express 26 Operational Intelligence Preparation of the Environment (OIPE) Brief: Isla del Sol. 2-10 April 2015

Agenda What is OIPE? OIPE for the Isla del Sol: Geography; Weather, Threats and Hazards; Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, Infrastructure, Physical and Time (PMESII-PT); Actor and Stakeholder Analysis; Troop Contributing Country Military Resources; Humanitarian Situation. Agenda, as on slide.

What is OIPE? OIPE: A continuous activity that assists Commander’s Appreciation Process during all phases of planning and execution of multinational operations. OIPE provides foundation for Commander’s Situational Assessment A key CTF planning principle is: “Before any problem solutions can be identified the problem must first be clearly understood. Understanding the problem(s) preventing attainment of the assigned military end states is essential for the CCTF to accurately understand the situation. OIPE is a modification of the Joint Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment (JIPOE) which includes: Baseline analysis of the traditional intelligence concerns of enemy, weather, terrain; Added considerations that political, military, economic, social, infrastructure, and information dynamics have on the operational environment. What is Operational Intelligence Preparation of the Environment – OIPE: A continuous activity that assists Commander’s Appreciation Process during all phases of planning and execution of multinational operations. OIPE provides foundation for Commander’s Situational Assessment A key multinational planning principle is: “Before any problem solutions can be identified the problem must first be clearly understood. Understanding the problem(s) preventing attainment of the assigned military end states is essential for the CMNF to accurately understand the situation. OIPE is a modification of the Joint Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment (JIPOE) which includes: Baseline analysis of the traditional intelligence concerns of enemy, weather, terrain; Added considerations that political, military, economic, social, infrastructure, and information dynamics have on the operational environment.

This briefing will provide an overview of the OIPE for this workshop. A complete OIPE study is located in digital form on each laptop in your planning groups. This briefing will provide an overview of the OIPE for this workshop. A complete OIPE study is located in digital form on each laptop in your planning groups.

Isla del Sol 2° S 4° S 6° S 8° S 168° E 170° E 172° E Isla del Sol – “IDS” 6° S 8° S 168° E 170° E 172° E

IDS within the Region IDS is located in the South Pacific between 2° and 8° S, and 167° and 173° E.

IDS within the Region IDS’s closest neighbors are: Nauru to the north Kiribati Gilbert Islands to the NE Tuvalu to the east Fiji to the SE Solomon Islands’ Santa Cruz Islands to the south Solomon Islands to the west.

IDS Geography & Demographics Island nation running northwest to southeast. Mountain spine runs entire length of island; Sea level to 1,500 m mountain peaks; Land area: ~ 140,000 km2 (~ 54,054 sq mi) Slightly smaller than Nepal and Tajikistan. Population: 320,000 (2011 census) 54% urban & small towns (over 5,000 persons); Largest town: Ensenada at 63,192. 46% small towns and rural. Geography Generally, coastal plans with mountainous spine running from northwest to southeast. Land area approx. 140,000 sq km Slightly smaller than Nepal. Demographics Population 320,000 based on 2011 census. 54% urban / 46% rural. Largest city – Ensenada at 63,192 persons; Capital – Santa Rosalia at 42,408 persons.

IDS Weather, Threats and Hazards Semi-arid to desert. Mostly desert (≤ 30 cm of rainfall). Semi-arid in southeast plain. Temperatures Average 20° to 31° C (68°to 88° F). Cooler in higher elevations. Little seasonal variation. Hazards Cyclones from January to April. Flash flooding and landslides. Tsunami exposure in low-lying areas. Weather Mostly desert; semi-arid in the southwest plain. Temperate climate Temperatures 20-31 degrees C Cooler in higher elevations Little seasonal variation Threats and hazards: Typhoons; Flash floods and landslides with heavy rains Tsunami exposure in low-lying areas.

IDS PMESII-PT Political: Parliamentary republic. Capital: Santa Rosalia 3 administrative districts Executive Branch Prime Minister Carlos Manuel de Céspedes del Castillo 12 Cabinet Ministers Legislative Branch Unicameral parliament – National Constituent Assembly 120 Assemblymen 4-year terms. Judiciary: Highest court: Tribunal Supremo Provincial courts: Audiencia Provincial Municipal courts: Tribunal Municipal Isla del Sol gained independence from former colonial ruler Iberia 24 March 2014 through a UN-brokered referendum. Political Isla del Sol gained independence from Iberia 24 March 2014 UN-brokered referendum Parliamentary republic Prime Minister Carlos Manuel de Céspedes del Castillo 12 Cabinet Ministries Unicameral parliament – National Constituent Assembly 120 Assemblymen elected to 4 year terms. 3-level judiciary Tribunal Supremo Audiencia Provincial Tribunal Municipal

IDS PMESII-PT Military Military: None Security Forces: Gendarmerie Guardia Civil Island-wide jurisdiction Divided into 3 Legions 1,500 Officers and enlisted personnel Guardia Municipal Metropolitan police for Ensenada and Santa Rosalia 210 police officers Coast Guard Servicio Guardacostas 130 Officers and enlisted personnel 6 Zhuk-class patrol boats 2 Fokker F-27 maritime surveillance aircraft. Military: No standing military Security Forces Guardia Civil Island-wide gendarmerie 1,500 officers and enlisted personnel in 3 Legions Guardia Municipal Metropolitan police for Ensenada and Santa Rosalia 210 police officers Servicio Guardacostas 130-man Coast Guard 6 Zhuk-class patrol boats 2 maritime surveillance aircraft

IDS PMESII-PT Economic: Underdeveloped agriculture and fishing economy: 33% ranching / herding / subsistence agriculture; 24% fishing; 19% commerce; 13% services. Potential for economic growth with foreign investment in oil exploration and palm oil farming. Inequitable distribution of income and wealth. Annual gross national product: US$ 400 million. Annual per capita income: US$1,250. Economic Underdeveloped agriculture and fishing economy Potential for economic growth with recent oil and palm oil foreign investment Inequitable distribution of wealth within population GNP US$ 400 million Annual per capita: US$ 1,250.

IDS PMESII-PT Social: Population: 320,00 (2011 census) Age structure: 0-14 yrs. 35.3% 15-24 yrs. 21% 25-64 yrs. 40.1% 65+ yrs. 3.6% Ethnic identity: Mestizo 29% Mohanjerani 25% Lahui Kanaka 24% Mixed 21% Other < 1% Religious affiliation: Christianity (Roman Catholic) 43% Islam 41% Lahui Kanaka 15% Other < 1% Language (primary): Spanish* 37% Western Arabic 32% Lahui Kanaka 31% * Spanish is the official language and lingua franca of commerce. Most Isla del Sol citizens speak conversational Spanish. Social: Population” 320,000 (2011 census) Age structure: 35.3% of population less than 15 yrs.. Ethnicity: Mestizo (Descendants of intermarriage between Iberian colonists and indigenous population) 29% Mohanjerani (Descendants from Iberian African colonies) 25% Lahui Kanaka (Indigenous population) 24% Mixed (from at least 2 ethnic groups) 21% Other (primarily Iberian officials) less than 1% Religion Roman Catholicism 43% Islam 41% Lahui Kanaka 15% Other < 1% Primary language: Spanish 37% Spanish is the official language and common language of commerce. Most Isla del Sol citizens speak conversational Spanish. Western Arabic n32% Lahui Kanaka 31%

IDS PMESII-PT Information Literacy rate: ~ 50%; 65% of population with < 5 years of formal education. Television: 1 state-owned station with national coverage; Multi-channel pay TV available. Radio: 2 state-owned radio stations; 2 privately owned radio stations; Multiple international broadcasters available. Telephones: Main lines in use: 25,400 Mobile phones in use: 164,200 Internet: 36,000 internet users. Newspapers: 2 large-circulation newspapers Information: Literacy rate approximately 50%: higher in urban areas, lower in rural areas. 65% of population has had less than 5 years of formal education. Television: 1 state-owned station in Santa Rosalia with national coverage. Multi-channel, pay TV available. Radio: 2 state-owned stations: One in Santa Rosalia and the other in Ensenada 2 privately owned stations: One in Santa Rosalia and the other in Ensenada Multiple international broadcasts are available. Telephones: Main line: 79.5 per 1,000 persons Mobile phones: 513.1 per 1,000 persons Internet: 11% of population Newspapers: Two: One in Santa Rosalia and the other in Ensenada.

IDS PMESII-PT Infrastructure: Airports – 5 Bahai Tortugas, Ensenada, San Felipe and Santa Rosalia (Palo Verde) are paved. San Ignacio is unpaved. Seaports – 3: Ensenada, San Felipe and Santa Rosalia Territorial Sea = 12 nm Contiguous Zone = 24 nm Exclusive Economic Zone 200nm Roadways: Highway 1 Runs length of island on the western side, then to San Felipe on the east. Paved. 4-lanes by metropolitan areas, 2-lanes in rural areas. Good condition. Secondary Roads Cities: Mixture of paved and unpaved Usually 2-lanes Good to fair condition, better in larger cities. Rural areas: Usually unpaved 2 lanes near towns, 1 lane in remote areas. Fair condition near towns, poor in remote areas.

IDS PMESII-PT Physical Time Generally poor infrastructure, especially in rural areas. Distances from Santa Rosalia to (in km): Australia, Sydney 3,699.9 Fiji, Suva 1,462.7 Japan, Tokyo 5,778.6 Malaysia, KL 7865.1 New Caledonia, Noumea 2,896.1 New Zealand, Auckland 3,369.5 Solomon Islands, Honiara 1,369.4 Thailand, Bangkok 8,193.3 Tuvalu, Funafuti 828.9 USA, Honolulu, HI 4,527.5 +11 hrs. from UTC (Same as New Caledonia) Physical Generally poor infrastructure, especially outside urban areas. Distances from Santa Rosalia to neighboring countries and major air centers. Time +11 hrs. from UTC Same as New Caledonia.

Major Actors in IDS Government of Isla del Sol: Guardia Civil; Guardia Municipal; Servicio de Guardacostas. Armed Terrorist / Insurgent Groups: Sons of Isla del Sol (SIS); Kamali’I ka Me’e Lahui Kanaka (“Children of Lahui Kanaka Heros” – KMLK); International Peoples’ Movement (IPM). Organized Crime Families: Mohajerani Criminal Gangs (MCG); Lahui Kanaka Criminal Gangs (LKCG). Major actors: Government of Isla del Sol and its Security Forces Armed Terrorist and/or Insurgent groups: SIS – Main insurgent group seeking to overthrow the government. Attacks on foreign workers Engages in piracy KMLK – Lahui Kanaka nationalist group Smaller and less active Arms smuggler, especially to SIS IPM International terrorist group Supports SIS operations. Organized Crime Families: MCG Mohajerani criminal group 2 main families Criminal activities including trafficking in persons and piracy No political agenda LKCG Lahui Kanaka criminal group Small, less organized criminal family Members often also members of KMLK IDPs Internally displaced IDS citizens Displacement due to conflict and 2 typhoons. Estimated 100,000+ IDS civilians displaced Approx. 90,000 in 3 IDP camps in San Felipe

Major Actors in IDS Gendarmerie and Servicio de Guardacostas Guardia Municipal Guardia Civil (by Legion) Servicio de Guardacostas Legion 3 Guardia Municipal in Ensenada and Santa Rosalia. Guardia Civil shown by Legion. Servicio de Guardacostas bases. Air operations out of Ensenada.

Major Actors in IDS SIS Area of Influence and Piracy Operations Ensenada SIS Area of Influence SIS Piracy Operations Servicio de Guardacostas bases San Felipe Location of SIS area of influence and piracy operations. Overlay of IDS Servicio Guardacostas bases. Santa Rosalia

Major Actors in IDS (cont.) IDS displaced persons: All IDPs 100,000+ IDPs in San Felipe camps ~90,000 United Nations Support Mission in Isla del Sol (UNSMI) Humanitarian and Development communities: UN humanitarian agencies, funds & programmes; International organizations; Red Cross societies; Non-Governmental Organizations: “IDS CAA”. Foreign Workers: Major employers: Petroliam Nasional Berhad (PETRONAS) Shell Oil Company (USA) Sime Darby Berhad Largest number of foreign workers Malaysia 9,500 USA 1,250 Major actors (cont.): Internally Displaced Persons Over 100,000 in IDS Approximately 90,000 in 3 IDP camps in San Felipe UNMSI UN Political Department mission No Peacekeeping forces Mandated to help IDS achieve independence and establish a government Humanitarian and Development Community Development community assisting IDS in progressing from colonial dominion to independent nation. Works closely with UNSMI and IDS government on economic development and good governance projects . Humanitarian community Smaller, humanitarian operations Primary focus is assisting IDS government in care and protection of IDPs, especially in the San Felipe camps. NGOs formed a cooperative council: IDS Council of Aid Agencies Foreign workers 9,500 Malaysian workers, working primarily for PETRONAS oil exploration and Sime Darby palm oil plantations. 1,250 USA workers, working primarily for Shell Oil Co. in oil exploration.

Major Actors in IDS UNSMI and IDP Camp Locations FO Ensenada HQ Santa Rosalia Field Offices: Ensenada Guerro Negro Loreto San Felipe Santa Catarina San Felipe IDP camps X 3 FO San Felipe San Felipe IDP camps FO Santa Catarina Location of UNMSI HQ in Santa Rosalia and Field Offices. Most Humanitarian and development agencies located in or near same locations. Location of San Felipe IDP camps. FO Guerro Negro HQ Santa Rosalia FO Loreto

Major Actors in IDS Locations of Foreign Economic Interests Ensenada PETRONAS / Shell Oil Sites Sime Darby palm oil plantations Airports Seaports Highway 1 1 San Felipe 1 Major actors: Locations of PETRONAS and Shell Oil sites, and Sime Darby palm oil plantations in relation to airports, seaports and Highway 1. 1 Bahia Tortugas 1 San Ignacio Santa Rosalia 1

Major Actors in IDS Locations of Foreign Economic Interests & SIS Areas of Influence and Piracy Operations Ensenada Airports Seaports Highway 1 PETRONAS / Shell Oil Sites Sime Darby palm oil plantations SIS Area of Influence SIS Piracy Operations 1 1 San Felipe 1 Major actors: Overlay of SIS areas of influence and operations vis-à-vis foreign economic interests. Bahia Tortugas 1 San Ignacio Santa Rosalia 1

Isla del Sol Non-Combatant Evacuation Operation Mission: Evacuation of 1,916 foreign civilians from Isla del Sol. French-led Non-combatant Evacuation Operation in IDS, mixed nations, mixed services. NEO Forces for planning: MPAT Nations, mixed services NEO Forces Staging Area: Nouméa, New Caledonia French government offers Nouméa as staging and destination point. IDS government consents to operation; anticipate SIS attempts to disrupt operation and / or target evacuees. Evacuees: Foreign non-essential diplomatic personnel and families, foreign aid workers and foreign workers. Mission: Evacuation of approximately 1.916 foreign civilians from Isla del Sol. French-led Non-combatant Evacuation Operation in IDS, mixed nations, mixed services. NEO Forces for planning: MPAT Nations, mixed services NEO Forces Staging Area: Nouméa, New Caledonia French government offers Nouméa as staging and destination point. IDS government consents to operation; anticipate SIS attempts to disrupt operation and / or target evacuees. Evacuees: Foreign non-essential diplomatic personnel and families, foreign aid workers and foreign workers.

Isla del Sol Non-Combatant Evacuation Operation (cont.) Concentrations of evacuees: Northern District: Ensenada, San Felipe, Northern GOPLATs Central District: Santa Catarina, Guerro Negro, El Barril Southern District: Bahia Tortugas, San Ignacio, Santa Rosalia, Southern GOPLATs, Loreto. Destinations: Directly to home country or to Nouméa, New Caledonia, for commercial transport home. Violence in Northern District, instability in Central and Southern Districts, piracy offshore. Execute mission NLT 1 May 2015 Concentrations of evacuees: Northern District: Ensenada, San Felipe, Northern GOPLATs Central District: Santa Catarina, Guerro Negro, El Barril Southern District: Bahia Tortugas, San Ignacio, Santa Rosalia, Southern GOPLATs, Loreto. Destinations: Directly to home country or to Nouméa, New Caledonia, for commercial transport home. Violence in Northern District, instability in Central and Southern Districts, piracy offshore. Execute mission NLT 1 May 2015

Isla del Sol Non-Combatant Evacuation Operation Airports Seaports Highway 1 PETRONAS / Shell Oil Sites Sime Darby palm oil plantations UN & Humanitarian Operations Diplomatic missions SIS Area of Influence & Piracy Ensenada 1 1 San Felipe 1 Locations of foreign diplomatic missions in Santa Rosalia, foreign aid workers and foreign workers, overlay of SIS areas of influence and operations. Bahia Tortugas 1 Santa Rosalia San Ignacio Santa Rosalia 1

Assets Available for Planning Non-combatant Evacuation Operation TBD TBD TBD List of assets available for planning for the non-combatant evacuation operation:

Isla del Sol Stability Operation Mission: In support of Govt. of IDS, assist in providing security, countering terrorism and protection of civilians. At request of Govt. of IDS and in accordance with UNSCR 2275 and 2282 (2015). Area to be secured: Isla del Sol. French-led stability operation in IDS, mixed nations, mixed services. Stability Operations Forces for planning: MPAT Nations, mixed services. Stability Operations Forces staging area: Nouméa, New Caledonia. French government offers Nouméa as planning and staging area. Participating nations to transport troops to staging area. Anticipate SIS and MCG opposition. Execute mission NLT 11 May 2015 Handover to IDS Security Forces by 11 July 2015, full transition of operations by 21 August 2015. Requests for Forces allowed once approved by MPAT Secretariat. Mission: In support of Govt. of IDS, assist in providing security, countering terrorism and protection of civilians. At request of Govt. of IDS and in accordance with UNSCR 2275 and 2282 (2015). Area to be secured: Isla del Sol. French-led stability operation in IDS, mixed nations, mixed services. Stability Operations Forces for planning: MPAT Nations, mixed services. Stability Operations Forces staging area: Nouméa, New Caledonia. French government offers Nouméa as planning and staging area. Participating nations to transport troops to staging area. Anticipate SIS and MCG opposition. Execute mission NLT 11 May 2015 Handover to IDS Security Forces by 11 July 2015, full transition of operations by 21 August 2015. Requests for Forces allowed once approved by MPAT Secretariat.

Locations of Security Incidents As of 31 March 2015 Ensenada SIS Area of Influence SIS Piracy Operations Airports Seaports Highway 1 PETRONAS / Shell Oil Sites Sime Darby palm oil plantations 1 San Felipe 1 Locations of security incidents as of 31 March 2015, with overlay of foreign economic assets and infrastructure. 1 Bahia Tortugas 1 San Ignacio Santa Rosalia 1

Assets Available for Planning Stability Operation TBD TBD TBD List of assets available for stability operations planning:

Isla del Sol Maritime Security Operation Mission: In support of Govt. of IDS, assist in countering acts of piracy, providing security and protection of civilians in waters off IDS. At request of Govt. of IDS and in accordance with UNSCR 2275 and 2282 (2015). Area to be secured: Waters surrounding Isla del Sol. French-led Maritime Security operation, mixed nations, mixed services. Maritime Security Forces for planning: MPAT Nations, mixed services. Maritime Security Forces staging area: Nouméa, New Caledonia. French government offers Nouméa as planning and staging area. Participating nations to transport assets to staging area. Anticipate SIS and MCG opposition. Execute mission NLT 16 May 2015 Handover to IDS Servicio de Guardacostas by 16 July 2015, full transition of operations by 21 August 2015. Requests for Forces allowed once approved by MPAT Secretariat. Mission: In support of Govt. of IDS, assist in countering acts of piracy, providing security and protection of civilians in waters off IDS. At request of Govt. of IDS and in accordance with UNSCR 2275 and 2282 (2015). Area to be secured: Waters surrounding Isla del Sol. French-led Maritime Security operation, mixed nations, mixed services. Maritime Security Forces for planning: MPAT Nations, mixed services. Maritime Security Forces staging area: Nouméa, New Caledonia. French government offers Nouméa as planning and staging area. Participating nations to transport assets to staging area. Anticipate SIS and MCG opposition. Execute mission NLT 16 May 2015 Handover to IDS Servicio de Guardacostas by 16 July 2015, full transition of operations by 21 August 2015. Requests for Forces allowed once approved by MPAT Secretariat.

Locations of Security Incidents – As of 31 March 2015 Ensenada SIS Area of Influence SIS Piracy Operations Airports Seaports Servicio de Guardcostas bases PETRONAS / Shell Oil Sites 1 San Felipe 1 Locations of maritime security incidents and SIS area of influence, overlay of infrastructure and Servicio de Guardacostas bases. Bahia Tortugas 1 San Ignacio Santa Rosalia 1

Assets Available for Planning Maritime Security Operation TBD TBD TBD Assets available for maritime security operation.

IDS OIPE Brief – Questions?