Transformational Challenges posed by Climate Change Dietmar Dirmoser Friedrich Ebert Stiftung Oct. 2009

The Core of the Climate Problem 1 50 Gt GHG (CO 2 -e) / year Burning of fossil fuels Biodegradation Non-CO2 10 Gt GHG / year „SINKS“ > Woods > Oceans

 Emissions Growing  Capacity of the Sinks declining (every day hectares of tropical forest destroyed) Trends

The Core of the Climate Problem 2 50 Gt GHG / year 10 Gt GHG / year 40 Gt GHG / year Concentration of GHG in atmosphere rises Atmosphere is heating up

Direct relation between GHG concentration and climate (climate sensitivity) Concentration today: 380 ppm GHG – Concentration in the atmosphere

Av. temperature rose by 0,76ºC since ≈1850 The impact of actual emission level and GHG concentration will be felt only in 40 years Increase of temperature until 2050 already caused by emissions already released in the atmosphere: ≈ 2,2ºC Already caused

- Av. Temperature: >rising - Sea level: >rising -Snow cover: >melting Danger of entering in a self accelerating circle of rising emissions and temperature ( melting of permafrost regions) Global warming

Impacts (long) Impacts: floods/ droughts/ extreme weather/ destruction of ecosystems/ extinction of species/ disappearance of coastal regions & islands scarcety of food new health problems

In short:  Confusion, crisis (e.g. caused by massive migration movements)  High costs (Stern Rpt.) Rising danger of (resource-) conflicts Scientists agree: Limitation of global warming to 2ºC is imperative; emission reduction target derives from temperature limit. Impacts (short)

Consequences: We have to design policies to avoid 40 Gt of CO 2-eq emissions / year = gigantic transformational challenge which implies: to redesign the energy system to redesign the production system Low carbon / zero carbon economy & society Redesign

A new International Framework is emerging. It will redefine parameters for all economies – everywhere! Decisions and Declarations Legal Basis of Int. Climate Policy: UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol 1992 Rio Summit (Earth Summit) 1994 Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) comes into effect Yearly Conferences of the Parties (COP of UNFCCC) continuous negotiation process since COP 1 Berlin (1995) Decisions 1

COP 3 (1997) Kyoto: Industrialized countries sign binding commitment (Kyoto-Protocol) to reduce their GHG-emissions from 2008 – 2012 by 5% compared with 1990; ratified by 184 countries, USA and Australia refused to ratify COP 15 (Dic. 2009) Copenhagen : Binding Int. Agreement about reduction of GHG emissions Decisions 2

G8 G8 Gleneagles (2005): climate protection priority for the first time G8 Heiligendamm (2007): „... consider seriously the goal of halving global emissions until “ G8 Hokkaido (2008): „... to consider and adopt the goal of halving...“ G8 L´Aquila (2009), pledges to limit global warming to 2ºC and to reduce emissions by – at least - 80% until 2050 in the G8 – countries and by 50% globally Decisions 3

Major Economies Forum G8 + China, India, Brazil, Mexico, S-Africa, S-Korea, Indonesia, Australia agree to take a binding decision about the emission-peak-year and the long-term reduction targets in Copenhagen (Dic. 2009) European Union Dic –Policy Package: 20%-Reduction of GHG – Emissions until % if Copenhagen Summit reaches agreement Important Business Leaders and Politicians claim radical reduction of emissions Decisions 4

Conclusions: 1)The decisions about reduction targets, taken in the context of international negotiations, are getting continuously nearer to the scientific (IPCC) targets. 2)Whatever the outcome of COP 15 Copenhagen might be, binding emission reduction agreements and voluntary auto-limitation promises are already in place. They change the parameters for the economy and imply major transformations of the energy system and the production system as a whole. Conclusions 1

Concxlusions 2 3) A worldwide emission trading scheme will contribute to generate strong incentives for a new Industrial Revolution. EU, USA and others are outlining the new production and energy system in their climate legislation. It will be based on renewable energy sources ( photovoltaics, wind, biomass, geothermal, hydropower) 4) There are several frameworks in discussion for a Green New Deal based on a Ecological Industrial Policy which points to redesign completely the economy in terms of the material flow („through put“) of resources based on new technologies.

5) The implementation of a new industrial system will be no linear process. There will be competition and hegemony conflicts, just as in the first Industrial Revolution. There will be winners and losers. Early adaptation will produce benefits; latecomers will have to face disadvantages. Especially small countries will have to strengthen their research and development capacity and will have to design clever adaption strategies. Conclusions 3