Carrying Capacity Definition Transition Training

Carrying capacity - notes Main points Carrying capacity is the population that can be sustained, at a given level of consumption, on a given area The global population passed the planet’s carrying capacity in about 1980 Additional Notes What the carrying capacity is depends on how much natural resource is taken by humans, how much we allow for other species The current human population of the earth is 6.5 billion. Best estimates are that earth’s long term sustainable population is 2 billion (if everyone had a low level of Western consumption and technology), and maybe less. Quote from Vandana Shiva: the best way for a population to make good decisions about carrying capacity is for the people to own their land.

Ecological footprint The idea can be applied to any item, person or activity The footprint is the total area required to sustainably supply all the energy and resources needed, and to absorb all the waste produced by the item, person or activity Transition Training

Ecological capacity and footprint Transition Training 2007 US ecological footprint is 9.5 ha/person Ecological reserve is -4.4 ha/person (Global Footprint Network 2008) 3

USA Capacity – notes Main Point The land available if you divide the surface area of the USA by the population gives each person an area of 5 ha. In fact the average footprint of those living here is 9.4 ha Additional points Most of this is for energy – for all aspects of our lives Our footprint is almost twice a UK person, and about 16 times that of a Bangladeshi or African.

How developed countries live beyond their means Transition Training 2007 “ghost acres” – taking from others “fossil acres” taking from the past (ancient sunlight) “draw down” taking from the future 4

Overshoot Main Point If we are living beyond our means – ecologically speaking – How is that possible? Because we use three sources of extra inputs and waste removal: Ghost acres. We import food, trees, clothing, minerals and other resources as raw or finished goods from other countries. Fossil acres. Our one-off legacy from the past, mainly in the form of fossil fuels for energy – but also the most easily mined metals and other minerals Draw down. We use renewable resources without regard to the time for them to renew. We pass on an increasingly degraded world to our children – with less water, forest, fish, wilderness, trees, species, land etc Additional Points Ghost acres can be seen as a post-colonial form of empire – taking from those less powerful than us. The other two are like a business using up its capital as if it is income. “The Last hours of ancient sunlight” is a wonderful book about this. In exchange for importing goods and exporting waste to other countries? We provide “services” such as financial markets, and sell debt. 97% of the money circulating in the world is debt, issued by rich countries

Transition Training 2007 = x x = technology x affluence x population Environmental impact Environmental Impact 5

Environmental impact Environmental impact is the product of all three elements: Higher levels of technology mean high levels of complexity which require high levels of infrastructure. Rich people have greater impact than those with less income or capital The more people there are the larger the impact – this is the most obvious to most people, hence the emphasis on China and India as “the problem” Additional points A silicon chip is a very small device but its production requires a vast amount of energy input and environmental degradation – mining and refining the minerals and creating very high precision labs to manufacture them Poor people spend more of their income on the basic necessities – food, housing, basic transport which are more likely to be locally produced. They are less likely to have access to cars, changing fashions, imported goods (though the world trade system distorts this)

Global inequality is growing Transition Training

Global inequality Main points Each horizontal band shows 20% of the world’s population, the horizontal width shows their income The richest 20% earn 82% of the world’s income – and the vast majority of this is earned by the top 10% Additional points This trend is becoming more extreme.

Inequality of energy use Transition Training USA = 2 EU = 13 Chinese 7

Inequality of energy use Main Point An American citizen consumes about 13 times as much energy as a Chinese person with Europe somewhere in the middle Additional points – “What about China?” If 1bn Chinese still have a lower energy use (and environmental footprint) than 300m Americans, who is the problem? A high percentage of Chinese energy is used manufacturing goods for export to the west. Some estimate this at 40 – 60% of their energy.

Fair shares Transition Training 2007 Is an unequal world sustainable? If not, whose way of life needs to change? 8

Fair shares Main Point Large differences of wealth are themselves unsustainable – the poor will always want to catch up. Whose lives need to change to resolve this situation? Additional points The same applies within a society – having rich and poor living next to each other creates social division and tension Great divisions of wealth can only be sustained in the long term by means of control and violence – this is the culture of empire

Contraction and Convergence Transition Training

Contraction and Convergence Main Point Contraction and convergence is a global political framework that addresses both social justice and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Additional points The objective is “fair shares” – that every person should ultimately have an equal share of the world’s carbon emissions There are arguments about how the burden of reducing emissions is shared between richer and poorer nations.

A part of the solution? Transition Training

Tradeable energy quotas Main Point It is a form of carbon rationing which provides a local or national framework that would ensure carbon reductions and give everyone a fair slice of the emissions cake. Additional Points Originally devised by David Fleming, this is a proposal for a national model to reduce carbon emissions Using market mechanisms – pricing – or a tax regime to lower emissions would be very socially divisive, effectively pricing an increasing proportion of the population out of energy use, transport and so on. There are stepped annual reductions allowing people and businesses time to plan their energy budget It includes a market for trading energy to allow flexibility

A diagram of everything Water Short use then throw away Massive inequalities Fish Minerals Oil and gas Inputs Outputs Land Rubbish in landfill Soil Chemicals Gases Radioactive waste Forest Food Industrial growth system Transition Training

A diagram of everything Main Point The model of the industrialised growth system is that there are unlimited resources as inputs and an unlimited “sink” for receiving outputs - “waste” Although we focus on climate change and peak oil – and some people have questions about the analysis of these problems, a closer look reveals that every part of this system is in crisis. (following slides go into each aspect in more detail)

Resource issues Water Fish Minerals Oil and gas Inputs Land Soil Forest Food Transition Training

Resource Issues Main Point There are problems with most of the main resources for our society: Transition focuses on energy – peak oil and gas – but other critical issues include Fresh water supply, especially drinking water is shrinking Collapsing fish stocks Widespread and continuing deforestation Decreasing land as well as soil erosion and decreasing fertility The peaks for many minerals are in sight – e.g. peak uranium in 65 year at current use rates

System issues Water short use then throw away massive inequalities Fish Minerals Oil and gas Land Soil Forest Food Industrial growth system Transition Training

A diagram of everything Main points The system in the centre values high consumption rates and short product lifetimes assisted by changing fashions, technical advances and built in obsolescence, 99% of “stuff” we buy has been used up or thrown away within 6 months of its production The capitalist system has created a lot of growth, but distributes benefits very unequally. Additional Points We need an advertising industry that itself requires £2.5bn (in the UK alone) of resources to persuade us to buy this much stuff How is social inequality maintained?

Output issues (“waste”) Water short use then throw away massive inequalities Fish Minerals Oil and gas Outputs Land Rubbish in landfill Soil Chemicals Gases Radioactive waste Forest Food Transition Training

Output issues (“waste”) Main points Climate change is the output issue dominating discussion currently. Yet other issues also affect our health and environment In nature there is no waste – an output from one process is an input for another. Additional points Radioactive waste – we still don’t have satisfactory solutions for what we have already produced. There are problems with fertliser run off from intensive agriculture; toxic substances in the food change; many respiratory illnesses from air pollution and so on..

The solution: closing the loops Transition Training

The solution – closing the loops This slide shows the concept of thinking in terms of cycles Solutions to our disconnected “resources in rubbish out” system would include ideas such as: Relocalisation – the output from one system is an input somewhere else. E.g. waste card as biofuel Permaculture is a very helpful thinking tool for designing closed systems Indigenous living systems also show us how to close these loops You might like to think of some examples of closing loops..