temperatures-ice.html 2009/3/26 Pei-Yu Chueh CO 2 vs temperature: ice core correlation & lag Lubos

Outline How to reconstruct the past climate? Objection: An Inconvenient Truth Some questions Possible explanation Others’ comments

Vostok ice core, Antarctica Temp↑ δD↑

Correlations between the temp. and the concentrations extracted from the ice core

An Inconvenient Truth Al Gore's answer : the temperature was determined by the concentrations of carbon dioxide.

Some questions 1. All the correlations in a satisfactory way. If you choose one of the gases, your explanation will be asymmetric and it won’t explain all the correlations in a satisfactory way

Some questions 2.Basic numbers ice age 180ppm Interglacials 280ppm 100ppm +8 ℃ 280ppm in ppm in ℃ 100ppm

Some questions ~1975 economic boom CO2 ↑ but temp ↓ The Great Global Warming Swindle

Possible explanation 1.Coke in a car Originally contains 4 volumns of CO 2 CO 2 leaks a bit internal volume is 1 cube meter Coke 385ml CO 2 (10 6 ml) CO 2

Possible explanation Henry’s law : Hot liquids are not able to absorb gases so well. Warmer ocean outgassing

Possible explanation 2. The frequency of fires Temp↑ Frequency of fires ↑ CO2 ↑ 3. The growth of plants and animals depends on temperature 4. Physics tells you quite clearly that the ability of water to bind gases is more important an effect for the correlation than the greenhouse effect

Possible explanation 5. CO2 lagged behind the temp about 800 years nowpast

Possible explanation 800 years ↑CO2 ↑temperature oceans are large and it simply takes centuries for them to warm up or cool down before they release or absorb gases.

Possible explanation 19,000-17,000 years ago : deep sea temperatures increased by 2 Celsius degrees or so 1,000 years later : CO ₂ increases Lowell Stott, Axel Timmermann, Robert Thunell: "Southern Hemisphere and Deep- Sea Warming Led Deglacial Atmospheric CO ₂ Rise and Tropical Warming"

Possible explanation Not only the CO ₂ lags by 1,000 years but the sea surface temperatures in the tropics lag, too. The deep ocean warmed much earlier than the surface. Lowell Stott, Axel Timmermann, Robert Thunell: "Southern Hemisphere and Deep- Sea Warming Led Deglacial Atmospheric CO ₂ Rise and Tropical Warming" The warm water came from the South Perhaps “increasing southern spring insolation” occured Followed by albedo feedback

Possible explanation Also, it is believed that the 800-year period is also the mixing time for the deep ocean. There is a limit to the amount of natural CO2 that can be released →making a never-ending cycle of temperature increase unlikely Never-ending increasing? X 50

Others’ comments Sun controls cosmic ray Sunspot activity↑ Cosmic ray↓ Clouds↓ More energy gets to the ground Ground heats up Temperature↑ Charles Jordan said…

Others’ comments Average sunspot activity has been going up and can account for most of the heating we see in the last 50 years. The Great Global Warming Swindle

The End ~