I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Headquarters U.S. Air Force 1 Hydrometeorology & Air Force Weather Col Charles (Dean) Corpman Chief, Air Force Weather Policy AF/A3O-WP

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 2 Overview Definitions Requirements Work in Progress AFW Goal Needs

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 3 Definitions 2 WXG/CC: “Hydrometeorology is: precipitation (rain, snow), soil composition (sand, silt, clay, clay type), soil water contents (i.e. soil moisture), energy flux, vegetation effects, etc. in addition to surface and subsurface water flow.” OFCM BBP: “ Hydrometeorology is the science of how atmospheric water in all its forms—water vapor, liquid or solid— interacts with the land and with energy fluxes to deliver precipitation (or not deliver it) onto the land below.” NWS Glossary : “ Hydrology – The scientific study of the waters of the earth, especially with relation to the effects of precipitation and evaporation upon the occurrence and character of water on or below the land surface.”

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 4 Requirements - Sources USAF Weather (AFW) Characterization: Weather Model Exploitation (WME) Implementation Plan (I-Plan) Version 0.7, September 2006 Air Force Doctrine Document 2-9.1, 3 May 2006 AFW Strategic Plan and Vision FY Transformation Vector #4 AFW Characterize the Environment Enabling Concept, Version 3.0, April 2006 Air Force Enabling Concept for Weather Support to Army Modular Forces, 16 September 2005 AFW Centralized Aerospace Weather Capability Operational Requirements Document (CAWC- ORD) 12 March 2001 Air Force Master Capabilities List (MCL) Version 5.4

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 5 Requirements Army: AR /AFIP , Climatic, Hydrological, and Topographic Services, Wx Support for US Army: “The Commanding General, US Army Corps of Engineers (CG, USACE) is the director and monitor for Army programs in the atmospheric, topographic, hydrographic and terrestrial sciences. The CG USACE: -Reviews all emerging Army systems for impacts (natural and induced) of the environment on those systems. -Is responsible for Cold Regions RDT&E support. -Is responsible for hydrological R&D and provides hydrological studies. -Hydrological Products. The Army develops and provides hydrological studies, forecasts and decision aids for military training, operations and emergency purposes. ”

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 6 Requirements Army: AR /AFIP (Cont): - “The AF provides: …Weather data and information tailored to assist Army hydrological forecasting, terrain analysis and mobility assessments.” Army specification: surface characterization/hydromet information at sub-1km scales. Intelligence Community: “written guidance for 5X5 km surface characterization.” AFWA IT Requirement: “Collect and store Hydrological obs”

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 7 Work in Progress Today, we (AFWA) run a hydrometeorological (hydromet) analysis package in AGRMET We plan to run a more advanced version of a hydromet package called Land Information System (LIS*) LIS is the data assimilation system that enables us to generate surface characterization data. LIS still relies upon land surface models (i.e. Noah LSM, Catchment LSM) to do the "physics" of the hydromet capability. *Copy provided: 25 Oct 07 Development Plan for the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) Land information System (LIS)

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 8 AFWA LDAS: Land Data Assimilation System

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 9 The current AFWA LDAS package is limited in its ability to exploit the vast amount of remotely sensed data currently available from operational DoD and NOAA satellite sensors because of the lack of a more advanced data assimilation capability. the primary information driving surface vegetation influences and surface albedo are based on long term climatological assessments. surface and subsurface soil temperature and moisture profiles are not forced using remotely sensed or in-situ measurements due to the lack of scientific capability to use those measurements within the AFWA LDAS LDAS: Land Data Assimilation System

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 10

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 11 “In 2004 AFWA…evaluated the LIS and identified the software package as potentially providing strong benefits to improve AFWWS capabilities of increased accuracy and precision of global terrestrial environmental characterization, and provide a software infrastructure already capable of using some NPOESS type satellite data. Replacing the AGRMET-based AFWA LDAS with LIS will enhance AFWA’s ability to provide surface characterization products at much higher resolution and accuracy, potentially down to 1km globally, than current operational capabilities.”

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 12 AFW Goal “The goal of (the AFWA LIS) plan is to lay the groundwork for … providing surface characterization products optimally tuned to support battlefield scale requirements and various Tactical Decision Aids (TDAs). Existing TDAs currently use coarse resolution surface environment products to determine target detection range and weapon selection systems. US Army troop support and Air Force targeting TDAs require a robust Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system to produce battlefield scale analyses and predictions. (Oh yes…and to) support National Programs, ISR programs, and other US Government Agencies” *LIS: Land Information System

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 13 Needs – 2 WXG/CC High-resolution global background data necessary to run LIS accurately. Higher resolution background soil type data would help tremendously to run at very high resolutions globally The finest resolution soil texture databases we have are roughly 10 km (global coverage) We need 1km or finer soil texture databases to support high resolution LIS runs at 1km *LIS: Land Information System

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 14 Needs – 2 WXG/CC Tighter land surface modeling community focus and collaboration: Too many land surface models (LSMs)--perhaps 30+ being developed every year at some university or gov't lab The hydromet community should narrow its physics development down to fewer LSM options. This is a policy issue OFCM could work to help solve. Surface and sub-surface flow capabilities (surface run-off, river flow, snow melt, flooding prediction) have been developed but not for LSM options currently available/ready scientifically for operational use. We (AFWA/NASA) have been planning software updates to LIS that would handle surface/subsurface water flow, but since the community is spread so thin among many LSM options, none of the surface flow packages are really ready for ops at this time.

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 15 Summary Definitions: Gain consensus--providers and users Requirements: Plenty—recognized value Work in Progress: From LDAS to LIS AFW Goal: Support DoD & Interagency Needs: Focus collaboration on operations

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 16 Questions? Col Charles D. Corpman Chief, Air Force Weather Policy (AF/A3O-WP) DSN , Comm (703)