Still waiting for the “Kinder, Gentler, Post Cold War World?

The Rise of Islamist Politics

End of Cold War? An Economic Catastrophe for Middle Eastern Populations Arms deluge in the region (and the world) International Aid funds are redirected to Europe Neoliberal Economics encourage privatization, end to subsidies, increased inequality. Anger at local regimes for failing to handle 1990 crisis, perceived corruption and waste Leftist Opposition Groups Completely Discredited

1. Arms Deluge—Licit and Illicit, soars after Anyone can buy arms!

Post 1991 saw an increase in several organized crime fields…

Changes in the 1990s—old state controls over “borders” The massive transfer of goods and equipment once under the exclusive control of national armies into private hands released into the market products ranging from rocket launchers to SCUD missiles and nuclear designs and machinery. A clue to the explosion of illicit trade is the relentless rise of money laundering. States don’t control currency flows… Arms trade, organized crime, human trafficking, narcotics, copyright medicines…. (Moses Naim, Carnegie Endowment Report)

Globalization of trade and technology affects arms also…

Pre-Arab Spring Arms Sales

’s Economic Crisis affects State Legitimacy. - Shift in U.S. Foreign Aid away from the Middle East

3. Neoliberal Restructuring 1990’s (Privatization of State Holdings, Elimination of Subsidies)

2006 Egyptian strike of 27, 000 workers suppressed by police and the media, but less successfully than previous strikes.

Strikers defacing a billboard of Mubarak was a shocking site (for those who saw it as it was not reported in the press). But a facebook page was established and within weeks had 70,000 followers in Egypt. Joel Benin’s report on Mahala at

Growing Population and Collapse of Subsidies= Hunger

Growing Populations strain Social Welfare States

4. Frustration with local rulers having to rely on outside forced in 1990

The Old World,

NATO Missions expansion

Expansion 1990-Present

4. Post 1990s– Collapse of the Old Leftist Opposition Movements

Iran’s response (by Twitter!) to the Charlie Hebdo attacks noted the end of the Cold War as a key dividing line “In the letter Mr. Khamenei is clearly concerned about how the attacks might have been used by some in the West to tarnish the image of Islam. That is part of a process that he says started after the disintegration of the Soviet Union and is part of a greater conspiracy to sow discord. “This is a preplanned challenge between Islam and you,” he writes, a 20-year-long effort “to place this great religion in the seat of a horrifying enemy.”

Rise of Islamist Politics 1973 Oil Embargo Shifts influence to Gulf – Migrant workers also spreading Conservative Culture – 1979 Iranian Revolution – Rise of Shia Power in the region aggravates legitimacy crisis in the Arab world

Shia today make up 10-15% of all Islam. Minorities in most states.

1980s Iran-Saudi Competition in the Gulf plays out in funding religious proxy groups Hezbollah (Lebanon) funded by Iran in 1982 Mujahedeen (Afghanistan) funded by Saudi Arabia Both increase missions to Central Asia, etc.

Srebrenica, Bosnia

Oslo Accords, 1994 A sign of changes, but maybe not great changes…

By 2000 Old Proxy religious units increasingly independent, fractured Crisis of Political legitimacy in States Old Leftist opposition discredited Nationalism failing to attract loyalty Modernization (individualism, mobility) challenging old structures Fundamentalist movements across religions…