Introduction to Research Methods The British General Election of 2005

4 ways of modelling voting  Sociological model – ‘Class is the basis of British politics: all else is embellishment and detail  Downsian model – party respond to voter preference distribution, typically a Bell shaped normal curve  The voter as consumer – ‘It’s the economy stupid’ (Clinton 1992)  Michigan model (social psychology)

UK sociological model 1950s  Homogeneous population  Class based voting  2 party system  Interest in class deviant voters, especially working class Conservatives  ‘Floating voters’ cross-pressured (family, class), less interested in politics

UK sociological model 1990s  More diverse society, many different identities, constructed rather than assigned  Fluidity, partisan dealignment  Move towards a multiple party system but limited by electoral system (contrast Netherlands)  Class voting index falls from 78 in 1966 to 27 in 1997

Does class still matter: Cons % lead over Labour Oct A, B, C C DE

Class declines, but not irrelevant  2001 result showed the lowest ever gap between middle class Cons. And working class Labour  Market researchers no longer use social class, but lifestyle groupings  See  But still safe Cons. and Labour seats – so income level does count

The bell shaped normal curve

Downsian economic theory of democracy  Parties analogous to entrepreneurs, have single goal of election, pursued rationally  Voters converge on median voting position  Parties are united, will change policies to maximise success (or leadership has control)  Parties produce vague general ideologies  Unimodal and near-normal distribution of preferences on left-right axis  Assume fixed voter preferences

A robust model  Works best under first past the post system  Model influenced Labour strategy in 1997: the discovery of ‘Worcester Woman’ as the median voter  Activists may push party away from median position (zealocracy) but that does not undermine model, but confirms it

Biggest limitation is assumption of one left-right spectrum  A more public expenditure/government versus lower taxes/less government is still relevant, note Cameron’s conduct  Research by Sanders (British Politics, Vol 1, No.2) suggest four dimensions (there are some issues about how he measures the left-right dimension)

Four dimensions in 2005 election  People’s tolerance or intolerance of difference (immigration, asylum seekers)  Liberal/authoritarian dimension, attitudes towards criminals and their punishment  Traditional left-right dimension  Anti-feminist dimension (but only 15% of electorate)

Economic model: voters as consumers of policies  Voters choose party they think will perform best on economy  Governments that deliver prosperity will secure re-election  Those associated with economic failure tend to lose office  Voters who are better off (or think they soon will be) support government

Why this model goes wrong  Works quite well in 1980s and even in 1992  ‘Black Wednesday’ 1992: Conservatives lose their reputation for economic competence  Every party that has devalued the £ has lost the following election (1949, 1967, 1992)  1992 election Conservatives had 13% economic competence lead over Labour, by mid-1994 Labour had 30% lead

So why did Labour win in 1997?  Economic indicators were strong and voters’ economic perceptions were up  Voters were more concerned about public services, area where Labour had clear lead  Very positive ranking of Blair and negative perception of Conservatives (sleaze) and Major

So is economic model invalidated?  Even in 1997 Conservatives lost votes most among those whose economic situation had deteriorated  Electorate punishes government for failure rather than rewarding them for success?  So suppose housing market collapsed?

2005 election  AB voters now 25% of electorate, crucial in seats Conservatives needed to win, but only had 35% of them compared with 54% in 1992  Gender gap favoured Labour for first time, 6% lead over Conservatives among women (this is one area where the Conservatives are making gains)

2005: age as a factor  Labour support fairly even among age groups  Liberal Democrats do poorly among 65+ age group  Conservatives lead among 55+ voters, but only get around a quarter of voters under 44

Issues  Labour in the lead on economy (39%), Terrorism (18%), Education (5%)  Negative ratings for Labour on health service (-10%), taxes (-13%), crime (- 17%), pensions (-31%), railways (-36%), Iraq (-42%), immigration (-65%)  Conservatives establish immigration as an issue, but lack of electoral confidence in their solutions. May have reinforced ‘nasty party’ image among AB voters.

Can Dave win?

Factors that help  Redistricting of seats reduces Labour’s in built advantage, some of their safest seats abolished, e.g., Tyne Bridge  Cameron has made Downsian shift to centre, complaints from far right only make move look more credible  Some risk of losing votes to UKIP, possibly BNP  Evidence shows that tax-spend dimension affects willingness to vote Conservative

Just wait for Labour to fail?  Informal rule that governments lose elections rather than oppositions winning them – but they still have to do their bit  Brown v. Cameron comparisons in polls are favourable to latter, but these are entirely hypothetical and Brown will get an initial poll boost

What Conservatives can do  Recent research shows that voters’ perceptions of the general managerial competence of rival leadership teams is of critical importance to party choice decisions  Those not interested in politics tend to use cognitive shortcuts to make voting decisions. Image of party leader is crucial, hence soft focus Dave

What they can do (2)  Benefit from moving closer to median voter on tax/spend  Become more tolerant of difference  Attitudes to criminals and minorities are largely independent of each other, so can still keep strong policies on law and order (hence dangers of ‘hug a hoodie’ and opposition to ID cards)

Likely outcome  Hung parliament very likely whatever assumptions one makes about Lib Dem vote  Conservatives can reach 38 per cent of popular vote by changing themselves  Another 2 or 3 percentage points would give Dave 4 years in Downing Street