Issues, the Economy and Character in Campaigns March 23, 2011

Announcements No class next week; instead we will meet before the final exam (in May) for a review session. Final exam scheduled 20 May

How predictable are elections? Economic conditions Government popularity Past performance

Forecasting British Elections Belanger (2005) “A Political Economy Forecast for the 2005 British General Election” BJPIR 7:

The Forecast Actual result: Labour 35%

Another Forecast of the 2005 British Election Source: Whiteley (2005) “Forecasting Seats from Votes in British General Elections” BJPIR 7: Actual result: Labour 356 Seats; Conservatives 198 Seats; Liberal Democrats 52 seats

US Elections Abramowitz (2008) “Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election with the Time-for-Change Model” PS: Political Science & Politics 41(4):

The 2008 Election Actual result: Obama 53%

If elections are predictable why is opinion fluid...

British Voting intentions ( ) See

Enlightenment Theory Campaigns “educate” voters Campaigns activate “fundamentals” such as performance evaluations, group characteristics, party cues...

Example of Activation

For issues to matter in an election Candidates/parties must differ Prospective voters must perceive the differences They must be correct about the difference

On the other hand... There are incentives for candidates to obfuscate Prospective voters are often ignorant of where candidates/parties stand Individuals’ views on different issues may not point to the same preference

Issue Ownership Parties build up reputations in particular policy areas Parties come to “own” these issues Try to make elections about the issues they “own” “Old” vs. “New?” issues

Issue Space

Issue Voting in Britain

When are issues likely to be more/less important? When parties are far apart If parties/candidates successfully “cross-pressure” voters When candidates talk about them When media focus on them

The Economy Retrospective or prospective? Egocentric or sociotropic? Is it affected by institutional clarity of responsibility? Is a good economy as influential as a bad economy? Does political knowledge affect the relationship?

When is the economy likely to be more/less important? When parties are far apart When responsibility is clear When times are tough When candidates talk about it When media focus on it

Valence Issues Issues that are uniformly liked or disliked as opposed to a position issue on which opinion is divided. Valence issues are less demanding Corruption, competence, honesty, integrity Assessments about leadership performance

Character Competence Integrity Leadership Empathy

Brown’s Public Image Survey End Date BeliefStrongDecisiveCrisisHonestIn touchLeaderCharisma YouGov/ Sunday Times 15/06/ YouGov/ Sunday Times 20/07/ YouGov/ Sunday Times 06/10/ YouGov/ Sunday Times 16/05/ YouGov: Thinking about Prime Minister Gordon Brown, which of the following qualities do you think he has? Sticks to what he believes in, Strong, Decisive, Good in a a crisis, Honest, In touch with the concerns of ordinary people, A natural leader, Charismatic, None of these, Don’t know

Character

Perception of Gore’s Honesty

Traits of Candidates

British Elections: Valence Politics Leadership evaluations Party identification Perceptions of competence Economy

Summing it Up: What matters? The economy The issues Character