Open Sesame: Arab Mobile Markets Michael Minges The views expressed are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect the opinions.

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Open Sesame: Arab Mobile Markets Michael Minges The views expressed are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its Members

Topics The mobile revolution Some Arab States behind Emerging Arab mobile stars Issues to consider

A Mobile Revolution Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database. More than 300 million users new users added each day Users double every 20 months Competitive markets Worldwide mobile cellular subscribers (millions) % 8% 5% 4% 12% 3% 2% 16% 21% Mobile as % of total telephone subscribers

A mobile future Source: data from ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database ITU projections. Mobile has overtaken fixed-lines in Cambodia & Finland Mobile subscribers to overtake fixed-line worldwide before 2010 Mobile revenue to overtake fixed-line after 2004 Telephone subscribers, millions, '000 1'500 2' Fixed Mobile Mobile will substitute for fixed telephony as the primary form for personal communications Vodafone

Under performing Qatar Bahrain Saudi Arabia Oman Lebanon Jordan Morocco Egypt Tunisia Algeria $2'000$4'000$6'000$8'000$10'000$12'000 GDP per capita, US$, 1997 Mobile cellular subscribers per 100 people, 1997 These countries are doing better than expected These countries are doing worse than expected

One is no fun Arab States have least competitive cellular markets

Limited supply Number of mobile operators X NOTE: This map is for illustrative purposes only!!!

Sub-Saharan Mobile Success Story Enters market 10/98 Starts up 5/ Sep-99 Forecast Uganda Mobile subscribers 000s Uganda: Least Developed Country category Introduces competition October 1998 By September 1999, more mobile than fixed subscribers Both mobile operators backed by strategic foreign investors More mobile than fixed

First Arab country to introduce mobile competition 2 Build-Operate- Transfer (BOTs) start May 95: Libancell Sonera (Finland) 14% Cellis France Telecom 67% Lebanon: The Arab mobile pioneer Fore- cast Mobile Fixed

Lebanon: Universal coverage, high substitution

Egypt opens up Starts 11/96 Starts 11/98 Forecast Egypt: Mobile cellular subscribers (000s)

Morocco sets a record Mobile cellular subscribers per 100 inhabitants Awards 2nd license in July 1999 Price of license fee per population highest ever for developing country New operator expects to capture half of market by 2003 Source: Telefonica (Spain)

Arab Mobile Stages Mobile cellular subscribers per 100 inhabitants

Technology Almost all Arab States use GSM: 14 networks 3.1 million subscribers (June 99) 3rd generation mobile (IMT-2000): Global roaming Multimedia Multimode Japan (2001), European Union by 1/1/2002 D-AMPS 6% PDC 11% CDMA 7% PHS 2% GSM 44% Analogue 30% Digital 70% Worldwide cellular subscribers by technology, 1998

Coverage Mobile cellular coverage is an important indicator of Universal Access ~ 100% population coverage + pre-paid card = Universal Access

Tariffs Mobile Tariffs, 1999, 100 minutes per month, US$

Publication launch: 10 October 1999 (TELECOM 99) Available on paper and online (PDF format) Website: wtdr_99/wtdr99.htm For more information… WORLD TELECOMMUNICATION DEVELOPMENT REPORT 1999 Also see: The world in your pocket. Telecommunication Survey. October