Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 2 February 2005.

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Presentation transcript:

Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 2 February 2005

Norges Bank 2 GDP. Growth in volume on previous quarter Per cent. Seasonally adjusted. 02 Q Q4 US UK Japan Euro area Sources: EcoWin, Statistics Japan, National Statistics (UK), EUR-OP/Eurostat, Consensus Economics and Bureau of Economic Analysis (US)

Norges Bank 3 Core CPI/HICP in the US, the euro area and the UK. Percentage change on same month previous year. Jan 01 - Dec 04 UK 1) US Euro area US 2) 1) RPI excl. food 2) Personal cconsumption expenditures deflator, less food and energy Source: EcoWin / National statistics

Norges Bank 4 Consumer price inflation in the Nordic countries Percentage change on same month previous year. Jan 02 – Dec 04 Sources: EcoWin/SN, Statistics Sweden, EUR-OP/Eurostat and Statistics Denmark Norway (CPI-ATE) Sweden (UND1X) Finland (HICP) Denmark (HICP) Sweden (UND1X less energy)

Norges Bank 5 Interest rate expectations for the US, the euro area and Sweden Source: Reuters and Norges Bank US Euro area 31. January 13. December Sweden

Norges Bank 6 Oil price Brent Blend USD per barrel. Daily figures 31. January 13. December Futures price 28 October (IR 3/04) Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 7 Oil futures prices USD per barrel light crude. Daily figures. Jan 01 – Jan 05 Source: EcoWin/ NYMEX Delivery in 6-7 years Delivery in 1 month

Norges Bank 8 CPI-ATE Total and broken down into imported and domestically produced goods and services 1). Historical price inflation and projections IR 3/04 (broken line).12- month rise. Per cent Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Domestically produced goods and services (0.7) 1) Norges Bank's estimates Imported consumer goods (0.3) CPI-ATE

Norges Bank 9 Movements in the krone exchange rate (I-44) Daily figures. 1 Dec 2002 – 31 Jan 2005 Source: Norges Bank Stronger krone Weaker krone

Norges Bank 10 Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank Interest rate expectations in Norway Actual and expected developments in the key rate, and interest rate differential against trading partners at 13 Dec 2004 and 31 Jan – December 31. January Key rate in Norway Interest rate differential against trading partners

Norges Bank 11 Growth in retail trade turnover and the retail sales index From same period previous year. February 2003 – December 1) 2004 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Turnover statistics Retail sales index 1) Turnover statistics up to August 2004, retail sales index up to December

Norges Bank 12 Housing market House prices (12-month rise), number of housing starts (last 12 months) and number of dwellings sold (last 12 months). Jan 99 – Jan 05 Housing starts, in 1000s 12-month rise in house prices. Per cent Dwellings sold, in 1000s Sources: Statistics Norway and associations of Norwegian real estate agents (NEF, EFF)

Norges Bank 13 Total debt mainland Norway (C3) and domestic debt distributed between households and non-financial enterprises (C2) 12-month rise. Aug 01 - Dec 04 Source: Norges Bank C2 enterprises C3 mainland Norway C2 households

Norges Bank 14 Non-residential building starts Area (1000 m 2 ). 3-month moving average. Jan Oct 2004 Holiday properties Wholesale and retail trade Property management and commercial services Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 15 Business sentiment indicator for manufacturing Seasonally adjusted diffusion index 1) Q1 – 2004 Q4 1) A value of more than 0 implies that the majority of industrial leaders expect a positive trend in the next quarter. Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank 16 Investment intentions survey for oil and gas production including pipeline transport Estimated and actual investment. In billions of NOK Estimate made previous yearEstimate made current year Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank 17 Number of person-hours worked Figures from LFS (monthly) and quarterly national accounts (QNA). Seasonally adjusted LFS: Number of thousand person-weeks worked at 37.5 hours per week QNA: Number of millions of person-hours worked per quarter. LFS (left-hand scale) QNA (right-hand scale) Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank 18 Sickness absence Person-days lost due to sickness absence, both self-certified and doctor-certified, for employees aged 16-69, as a percentage of contractual person-days Source: Statistics Norway Agreement of intent

Norges Bank 19 Movements in the krone exchange rate compared with the interest rate differential. Jan 02 - Mar 06 I-44 (right-hand scale 1) ) Expected interest rate differential 31 January (left-hand scale) Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank 1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the exchange rate

Norges Bank 20 Prices for imported consumer goods in the CPI and in External Trade Statistics, and I-44 4-quarter rise. Per cent Q Q4 I-44 1) Norges Bank's estimates: Clothing and accessories, footwear, furniture, food and beverages 2) Excluding audiovisual equipment and cars Imported consumer goods in External Trade Statistics 1) Imported consumer goods in CPI 2) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 21 Interest rate increases in this business cycle Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg and Norges Bank First interest rate increase Key rate at lowest pointCurrent key rate Change since lowest point Iceland New Zealand UK US Australia Canada Switzerland Euro area Sweden JapanTowards zero 0.00 Trading partners 1) ) Estimated as a weighted average of 9 countries, where the weightings take account of the countries with a fixed exchange rate against USD and EUR. On 31 December 2003 this interest rate was 2.15 per cent.