Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) Peter Chen Chief, Data-Processing and Forecasting System Division Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department WIS Common Alerting Protocol Implementation Workshop Geneva 6-7 April 2011

Numerical simulations of the atmosphere “In general, the public is not aware that our daily weather forecasts start out as initial value problems on the major national weather services supercomputers. Numerical weather prediction provides the basic guidance for weather forecasting beyond the first few hours.” Eugenia Kalnay (2003) From: “Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and predictability” Cambridge University Press, 2003, 5th printing 2009

Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) WMO Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries (Cg-XV, 2007) “NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.” WMO Strategic Thrusts Improved Service Quality and Service Delivery Improved delivery and access to high quality weather, water, related environmental predictions, information, and services Reduced risks and potential impacts of hazards Strengthening Capacity Building

Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) WMO SWFDP Main Goals Improve Severe Weather Forecasting Improve lead-time of warnings Improve interaction of NMHSs with users, including media, disaster management and civil protection authorities, and user communities in the various socio-economic sectors (e.g. agriculture, fisheries, etc.) SWFDP provides a practical and beneficial platform for preparation and dissemination of multi-hazard, early warnings SWFDP Regional Subprojects Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria) South Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington) Southeast Asia (in development, 4 countries; possible start-up 2011) Eastern Africa (in development, 6 countries; possible start-up 2011) Several others being considered

SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process Global NWP centres to provide available NWP and EPS products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame; Regional centres to interpret information received from global NWP centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs; National Met. Centres maintain responsibility/authority over national warning services, issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; liaise with Disaster Management, and contribute feedback and evaluation of the project Global Centers RSMC Pretoria NMCs Disaster Management Centres 5

SWFDP – Southern Africa (in progress) 16 countries, RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Réunion, Met Office UK, NCEP USA, ECMWF Example: SWFDP-Southern Africa web site (RSMC Pretoria) Since 2006 6

Proposed SWFDP – Eastern Africa (status/progress) WMO Project develop in progress Focus on: Strong winds Heavy precipitation Hazardous waves (Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria) Users: general public, disaster management, media, agriculture and fisheries Domains: (TBC) 5E – 55E; 30N – 25S (for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying the various severe weather events) 31E – 36E; 2N – 4S (for the Lake Victoria) Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP (NWP guidance material) Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by TMA, UKMO and DWD National Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia Possible start-up 2011

Proposed SWFDP – Southeast Asia WMO SWFDP – Southeast Asia status/progress Project develop in progress (draft Implementation Plan available at: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/CBS-Reports/documents/Report_SWFDP-SeA_IP_Sep2010.pdf) Focus on strong winds and heavy precipitation (mainly TC-related) and associated hazards (e.g. flooding, landslides, storm surges, swell) Domain: 10°S, 40°N, 80°E and 140°E Global Centres: CMA, JMA and KMA (NWP guidance material) Regional Centres: Viet Nam (Regional Forecast Support), RSMC Tokyo and RSMC New Delhi (TC forecasting support), and HKO (training and technical support) National Met. Centres: Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam Possible start-up 2011

Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) main components Regional Centre Global Centres RSMCs-TC Global NWP/EPS and Sat-based products TC Guidance Products (risk/probability) GDPFS National Met Centres (Forecast D / D+5; Bulletins) SMS; Weather Radio Systems; Public Web; etc. General Public PWS Disaster Management and Civil Protection Specific Communication Systems Media E-mail; etc. Radio; TV

CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) in the SWFDP context SWFDP is helping WMO Global Data-processing and Forecasting to support multi-hazard warning services with improved content (including reliability, lead-time) Within the generic framework and activities of SWFDP, CAP fits in the "dissemination" part This could include regional parts as well a national parts SMS; Weather Radio Systems; Public Web; etc. General Public Public Weather Services Disaster Management and Civil Protection Specific Communication Systems Media E-mail; etc. Radio; TV Should become CAP-enabled

SWFDP links and synergies General Public and spec. users (Agriculture, Fisheries, Marine Safety, Aviation, etc.) Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized Applications AgM, MMO, AeM, etc. Specific Comm. Systems Flash Flood Guidance HWR Disaster Management and Civil Protection Specific Communication Systems Regional Centre Global Centres RSMCs-TC Global NWP/EPS and Sat-based products TC Guidance Products (risk/probability) GDPFS National Met Centres (Forecast D / D+5; Bulletins) PWS WWRP Research Projects Satellite Imagery and Tools WMO SP SMS; Weather Radio Systems; Public Web; etc. General Public E-mail; etc. Radio; TV Media Specific Communication Systems Disaster Management and Civil Protection

SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings Severe weather: heavy rain, strong winds, forecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time) Forecasting (GDPFS), warning services (PWS) High-impact focus (flash-flooding, wind damage, near-shore damaging waves), and applications (e.g. AgMet) Forecast Verification Warning Services (e.g. alerting technologies, exchange) Phase in other developments Forecasting gaps: Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized events Lack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h) Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations

SWFDP – paving the way for the future “ … next decade will continue to bring improvements, especially in … detailed short-range forecasts, using storm-scale models able to provide skillful predictions of severe weather; … “… improvement in the usefulness of medium-range forecasts, especially through use of ensemble forecasting;” - Eugenia Kalnay (2009) Goal: To further exploit the use of existing products from NWP centres, without the need (burden) of additional investment in development effort. Focus on severe weather forecasting because NWP products have become more relevant in providing advanced (lead-time) warnings and is complementary to the role of observational data as the basis for issuing warnings. Notes: SWFDP is intended to further the implementation of the GDPFS, and not a R&D initiative. Will be linked to the development of a WMO NWP Strategy for Developing Countries. Tell us how to fish Show us how to fish Fish with us

SWFDP - Improving severe weather forecasting and warning services Thank you! Peter Chen pchen@wmo.int Alice Soares asoares@wmo.int Haleh Kootval hkootval@wmo.int