Evaluating Election Administration in the 2006 Midterm Elections Professor Rick Hasen Loyola Law School, Los Angeles
Three means of evaluating 2006 election Meltdown standard Public confidence standard Election administration competence standard
Meltdown standard Election a success because the balance of Senate or House did not depend upon resolution of an election administration snafu Serendipity: We are lucky Montana election administration was not like Denver’s
Public opinion standard: Evidence to 2004
Public confidence standard shows gaps by race, party in 2006 (pre-election)
Source: Pew Center for People and the Press Oct. 11, 2006 release
Election administration competence standard Serious, isolated problems Denver, FL-13 (Sarasota race) Less serious, widespread problems Poll worker problems, machine malfunctions, etc.
Litigation issues
The average number of cases in the 1996–99 period was 96 per year, compared to an average of 254 cases per year from 2001–04. Preliminary look at 2006 numbers shows at least 240 cases, consistent with post-2001 trend.
Main issue with much election administration litigation: lack of good empirical evidence Voter identification evidence needed to assess (1) Extent of impersonation fraud voter id laws deter; and (2) Extent of deterrence of eligible voters caused by voter id laws Unfortunately, access v. integrity debate mostly in a vacuum
So far, not much evidence points to impersonation fraud. EAC preliminary report; lack of EAC leadership on this issue Preliminary study by Eagleton Institute and Moritz on deterrence of eligible voters showing decline in voting in states using voter identification cases, especially among racial minorities ( 07,%20Testimony%20O'Neill%20and%20Vercellotti.pdf)
Troubling treatment of this issue by the courts Supreme Court’s opinion in Purcell v. Gonzalez Troubling suggestion of balancing a “feeling” of disenfranchisement when ineligible voters vote 7 th Circuit opinion in Indiana voter identification case: no good evidence on either side (but concerns about Judge Posner’s opinion on value of voting)
Electronic voting issues Sarasota/Florida governor’s decision on electronic voting machines EAC/Ciber controversy Possible congressional legislation Voter confidence v. election administration issues (paper trail)