THORPEX-Africa Aida DIONGUE-NIANG, André Kamga FOAMOUHOUE, Ernest AFIESIMAMA, Kwabena ASOMANIN, Amare BABU, Arona DIEDHIOU, Benjamin LAMPTEY, Abdalah MOKSSIT, Franklin OPIJAH, Eugene POOLMAN, Jim CAUGHEY, Dave PARSONS

THORPEX-Africa: the African regional contribution to the International THORPEX programme 2TTISS Monterey. Background Overall goal Main objectives Planned activities Collaboration and Partnership With AMMA Next steps

THORPEX-Africa: Background 2006: Contributions from Scientists in and out of Africa Collected by ACMAD and synthetized by WMO First International African THORPEX Planning meeting, Ouagadougou, February 2007 Present THORPEX programme Present the African THORPEX draft document Set up two Task Forces to write-up the Science Plan & study the RC structure THORPEX TF1 meeting, Dakar, September 2007 Rewrite the Science Plan Outline feasable tasks for Implementation Prepare the 2 nd planning meeting 2 nd International African THORPEX planning meeting, Karlsruhe, November 2007 Present the revised Science Plan Discuss some Implementation activities Propose the composition of the Regional Committee 1st Regional Committee meeting, SAWS, July 2008 Produce the draft of the Implementation Plan

Background (2) The WWRP /THORPEX African Science Plan (English version) is available on-line at : thorpex_african_science_plan.pdf The WWRP /THORPEX African Implementation Plan available at: thorpex_african_implementation_plan.pdf Both English and French versions have been prepared and disseminated to Met services, academic organizations and institutes, research and users communities networks, institutional bodies. 4TTISS Monterey

THORPEX-Africa Overall Goal Provide the research to help reduce the adverse effects of meteorological and climate related disasters in the context of climate change for the benefit of Societies, the Economy and the Environment in Africa TTISS Monterey5

Promoting multidisciplinary collaboration between research, operational and user communities Improving forecasts in Africa from daily to seasonal timescales for key sector activities Providing better knowledge of HIW and assessing impact of weather forecast on the development of mitigation strategies Developing accurate and timely early warnings in a form that can be readily used in decision- making support tools THORPEX-Africa Main Objectives Agriculture and food security Health Water Res. Management Disaster Management Transportation Heavy rainfall and floods Severe winds Sand and dust episodes Late onset/early withdrawal of the rainy season Dry spells and prolonged periods of drought 6 TTISS Monterey

DAOS1: Design of an optimum network in Africa DAOS2: Use of non conventional observing systems DAOS3: Improvement of telecommunications facilities with WIS PDP2: Development of Seamless forecast from seasonal to daily timescales PDP1: Predictive Skill of high impact weather SERA1: High-impact weather information System SERA2: Forecast verification and cost/benefit assessments Planned activities TIGGE Predictability and Dynamical Processes Societal and Economic Research Application Data assimilation and observing systems 7

SERA1: High-impact weather information system Aim: Create user-friendly database available for use by the research, forecasting and user communities for integrated and multidisciplinary activities, decision and policy making Approach: Compiling high-impact weather events in each sub-region in Africa and collecting both weather and impact data to be stored to a designed information system that will be first based at UNESCO/ICTP (Trieste) and transferred to a centre in Africa TTISS Monterey8 Issue: Global Meteorological and climate-related disasterss database are available Limited archived data, tools, computing and storage capacity in Africa: big limitation for research and applications activities

SERA2: Forecast verification and cost/benefits assessments Aim: Develop appropriate verification measures for each priority sector, Cost and benefit analysis for HIW. Approach: Carrying research in partnership with social and economic scientists to tailor verification systems, cost and benefit measurements of high- impact weather and forecasts respectively. TTISS Monterey9 Issues: Integration of climate and meteorological information in policy and decision making is low and most of the current verification systems are not user-oriented Water Resource Management Health Food security Transport Energy Disaster management

DAOS1: Design of an optimum observation network in Africa Aim:Make recommendations for a more optimal observing system in the whole continent to support High-impact Weather predictions. Approach: Building upon AMMA to extend monitoring of African conventional observing systems and radiosondes denial experiments to the whole continent. Assess the value of AMDAR data. TTISS Monterey10 Issue: The Observing System in Africa has been deteriorating over many years., although in West Africa the AMMA programme increased the number of stations, particularly the upper air stations

DAOS2: Enhance the use of non conventional observing systems Aim: Explore the potential of new observing technologies to provide additional observations that improve the skill of High-impact Weather forecasts. Approach: Use of the potential of Satellite and Aircraft data to improve i) spatial and temporal coverage ii) to explore their impact on the quality of analyses and forecasts, particularly AMDAR data TTISS Monterey11 Issue: Many Satellite data already/soon available and potential of aircraft data not validated over Africa

DAOS3: Improvement of telecommunication facilities in Africa : through WIS-Africa? Aim:Develop in conjunction with WMO/CBS telecommunication strategies, in the framework of WMO Information System (WIS) Approach: Collaborating with WIS task team to conduct pilot projects to test or build African core components of WIS that meet THORPEX-Africa requirements TTISS Monterey12 Issue: Obsolescence of telecommunication facilities is a major constraint of data collection and dissemination, contributing to the limited quality of weather forecasts in Africa Temp messages received at ECMWF on May 04, 2005

PDP1:High-impact weather predictability Aim: I mprove our understanding of High- impact Weather events, assess their predictability and improve our ability to predict these events. Approach: Case studies of NWP assesseement and modelling studies of key high-impact in African sub- regions To feed the formation system To contribute to AMMA/handbook TTISS Monterey 13 Issue: Predictive skill of phenomena producing high-impact weather is still low for short –medium range although there are some promising research results 24h 23h 21h 19h 17h Squall line over Niger: surface rainfall

PDP2: Development of a seamless forecasting system in Africa Aim: i.Improve our knowledge and understanding of the nature and causes of intraseasonal to seasonal variability and its impacts on weather statistics ii.Provide a continuum of skillful weather/climate prediction system from daily to seasonal timescales that meet societal and economic needs in Africa TTISS Monterey 14 Issue: Short range forecasts and seasonal outlooks are widely provided to users across Africa whereas there is the gap concerning weekly, biweekly and monthly forecasts. However, key socio-economical sectors (e.g. agriculture, health, water resources) need intra-seasonal weather information

AMMA-THORPEX WG: High impact weather prediction and predictability (at international level) The Forecasters Handbook creation for West Africa to discuss and review current and new forecasting methods and tools: support of WMO/WWRP and contribution of THORPEX-Africa Design of optimum network : monitoring and data impact studies in the framework of AMMA to be extended to whole Africa: in the agenda of THORPEX International WG on Data Assimilation Predictability studies, particularly for intra-seasonal timescales Integration of climate/meteorological information into decision and policy making Network (research, operational, users communities, institutional) Communication strategies AMMA-THORPEX collaboration: some areas of actual and potential collaboration 15TTISS Monterey

Next steps WORKSHOP ON: HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER PREDICTABILITY, AN INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR AFRICA and AFRICAN FORECASTERS' HANDBOOK October 2009, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Co-sponsored by the WMO / WWRP- THORPEX, ACMAD, FSP-RIPIECSA and GEO

Concluding remarks For all the projects, international co-operation is essential The support of major NWP centres, research institutes and organisations is invited and will be necessary to achieve THORPEX –Africa goals The approach will be to build activities on existing programmes (e.g. AMMA) and make linkages to other directly relevant projects (e.g. UCAR Africa Initiative, ClimDev-Africa, ICSU-ROA/Natural hazards and disasters programme)