GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Todays program Issues and Challenges in DRM Risk Assessment in SEE - An assessment Understanding Risk Understanding Risk Assessment Understanding Vulnerability NRA Introduction SIERA Introduction

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Issues & Challenges in DRM/R The Role of Evidence-based Risk Assessment Dr. Carlos Villacis GRIP Coordinator

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Session Outline Challenges in Development Challenges in DRM/R Role of Risk Assessment UNDP Approach

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Challenge in Development The Impacts of Disasters

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 The impact of disasters In 2008, 354 natural disasters were reported 235,000 persons were killed (138,366 by Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar) More than 214 million people were affected (~ 59 times Moldovas population!) USD 190 billion in economic damages (~ 4 times Slovenias GDP!) Note: These are only major reported events (10 killed, 100 affected, state of emergency, call for international assistance) Source: Annual Disaster Statistical Review, CRED, 2009

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Losses to disasters are enormous Hurricane Mitch (1998): 80% GDP of Honduras; 49% GDP of Nicaragua 1972 Earthquake in Nicaragua: 42% GDP 1976 Earthquake in El Salvador: 31% GDP 2001 Earthquake in El Salvador: 12% GDP 2010 Earthquake in Haiti: 125% of GDP 2005 Earthquake in Pakistan: 5% GDP 2010 Flood in Pakistan: 10% GDP When are these countries going to develop?

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Small damage, but disastrous impacts 1987 Earthquake - Ecuadorian Oil pipeline Damage to the oil pipe Environmental Impact - 60 km Oil pipeline damaged - 6 months no oil exports - 70% National budget lost - 5 year national economic recession

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Disaster impact is not a point in time/space First priority should be prevent this from happening - DRM Every activity, including livelihoods recovery, has to be designed and implemented under the long-term development context Development

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Disasters have long-term, lasting impacts… The Impacts of the 1975 War on Lebanons Aviation: - 99 million passengers lost - 500,000 jobs lost

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Recurrent disasters hinder economic growth Projected Growth Real Growth

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Global Distribution of Natural Hazards and Poverty

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 What We Can Learn from the Disasters? - 5 Common Lessons

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Lesson 1: Risk self-created by poor planning… 65% of total number of deaths happened at this site San Salvador, 2001

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Lesson 2: Still emphasis in emergeny response Rescue team to Turkey RADIUS RM Plans (9 cities) Retrofit 4 schools in Kathmandu Cost time $1,5 m 1 week $ 2,5 m 2 years $ 45,000 1/2 year # lives saved What remains Impact on development 1 Thousands (potentially) ~ 1,500 Methodology, working groups, awareness Trained masons, techniques, awareness - Protect development process Protect the future -

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Still Emphasis is in Emergency (cont) Mozambique - Floods 2000 It was known - Rains heavier than normal Government appeal - $ 2.7 m International community - $ 400 K Huge human and economic disaster Response and relief - $ 160 m Recovery and reconstruction - $ 450 m

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Lesson 3: Unsafe building back Disaster risk has not been properly addressed by recovery and reconstruction processes and continue re-building pre-disaster risk and generating new risk

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Non properly planned recovery Reconstructing P.A.P or re-creating the problem?

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Lesson 4: International Aid may worsen the problem – Working only with central govts. Promotes corruption and politicizes post-disaster activities Does not address local needs properly Reduces effectiveness From 1991 to 2004 Nicaragua received about US$ 500 million per year in international assistance. However… 80% of public investment is paid by international assistance. Nicaraguas exports amount to just 30% of the countrys imports. Permanent deficit and increasing debt. Nicaragua remains completely dependent on foreign assistance

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Lesson 5: Lack of monitoring and evaluation 7 yrs after Mitch, there is no way to measure progress in risk reduction The Mayor of Managua, Dionisio Marenco, advised more than 5 thousand people living by the shores of lake Xolotlán to evacuate their houses because the Municipality has not the capacity to protect their lives when heavy rains happen (Prensa Grafica,2005)

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 The Disaster-Development Circle Poverty Vulnerability Disaster Development What is the Problem? What is the Problem? Setback

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Breaking the Vicious Circle Poverty Vulnerability Disaster Development Development Planning that incorporates risk management Development Planning that incorporates risk management Setback

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Disaster Reduction What we can do about them ?

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Disaster Reduction: What can we do? (1) Shift emphasis from disaster preparedness and response to disaster prevention through risk reduction Disasters can and should be reduced in both the number and the extent of impacts Move from projects to long-term programme Long-term goals providing the necessary financial, legal, political, and social conditions Integrate risk management into public policy and development planning Risk management as an integral part of public policy, urban planning, and development processes

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Disaster Reduction: What can we do? (2) Make of technology transfer and capacity building the first priority of cooperation Creation of safer communities is not the responsibility of international organizations but of the local people Measure progress and impacts Mechanisms are needed to periodically monitor progress and evaluate impact of the initiatives Multi-stakeholder engagement Sectors should be the key players in DRM/R.

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Disaster Reduction via Risk Management

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Issues & Challenge in DRM/R The Role of Risk Assessment

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Understanding of the problem Risk Assessment Proper Planning Evidence-based decision making Disaster Risk Reduction + Safe Development Processes Effective Actions The Issue in DRM/R

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Effective Risk Management Learn from the past (disaster loss information) –Causes, vulnerabilities, response, long-term impacts Accurately estimate future losses (risk assessment) –Estimate potential losses accurately, make informed decisions Risk Management –Acceptable risk level –Risk reduction capacity –Risk transfer Insurance, other ways –Monitoring of changes –Evaluation of strategies Corrections

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Challenges in DRM/R Strong leadership –Overall vision, comprehensive conception, clear goals, long-term plan Effective coordination –Understand of the problem, and realistic solution Visibility of DRR outcomes –Systematic M&E, Evidence-based RA Integrated information management –Effective sharing policy & mechanism, standardized data production methodology, QAQC

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Why Risk Assessment? To understand the problem –Size –Characteristics –Distribution –Causes –Feasible solutions Strategies To monitor progress –Impact –Efficiency To evaluate strategies –What is working and what is not? –Necessary corrections

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Understanding of the problem Risk Assessment Proper Planning Informed decision making Disaster Risk Reduction Effective Actions Cost/benefit analyses Risk assessment Cost/benefit analyses Risk assessment Monitoring Risk assessment Role of Risk Assessment Evaluation Risk assessment

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 What is Evidence-based Risk Assessment? Risk is dynamic and changing over time, due to: –Climate change –Environmental degradation –Urbanization Risk Assessment is a continuous process –Periodic Monitoring and evaluation –Sustainable –Multi-stakeholder engagement –Capable of being improved New information Not a one-time effort Local capacity is the only way to guarantee sustainability Neither a game of playing numbers nor producing nice-looking maps

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Comprehensive DRM/R UNDP Approach

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 CADRI Gender UNDP Approach - Comprehensive DRM Disaster Reduction and Recovery Team (DRT), BCPR/UNDP Risk Identification – GRIP Governance & Mainstreaming – GMI Recovery - IRP Urban Risk Management - URM Climate Risk Management – CRM Gender Capacity Development – CADRI (UNDP, OCHA, ISDR) Risk Identification (GRIP) GMI URM Rec. CRM Evaluation – GRIP

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 GRIPs Areas of Practice National Disaster Observatory National Risk Assessment Urban Risk Assessment Core Services: NDO - National Disaster Observatory NRA – National Risk Assessment URA – Urban Risk Assessment Capacity for Risk Assessment Systematic Inventory & Evaluation for Risk Assessment Basic Services: SIERA – Systematic Inventory & Evaluation CRA – Capacity for Risk Assessment

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Summary The root cause of the vicious disaster-development circle lies in lack of development planning that incorporates risk management. Risk management MUST be an integral component of every development decision in order to break the vicious disaster-development circle. The basis of effective DRM is a clear understanding of the problem and of the effectiveness of the potential solutions based on evidence-based risk assessment. Risk assessment is an integral part of policy/decision making that needs to engage policy/decision makers, stakeholders, and risk analysts through the whole course of the process. Risk assessment is a continuous process of understanding the problem of disasters and risks a country or a society is facing, rather than a one-time effort. Risk assessment is neither a game of playing numbers nor an exercise of making nice-looking maps (purely scientific activity).

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010 Breaking the Vicious Circle Poverty Vulnerability Disaster Development Development Planning that incorporates risk management Development Planning that incorporates risk management Setback

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, , Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010