© Synovate Ltd. All rights reserved. The concepts and ideas submitted to you herein are the intellectual property of Synovate Ltd. They are strictly of confidential nature and are submitted to you under the understanding that they are to be considered by you in the strictest of confidence and that no use shall be made of the said concepts and ideas, including communication to any third party without Synovate’s express prior consent and/or payment of related professional services fees in full. SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer October 2011 Findings Date: 4 th November 2011

2 © Synovate 2011 Content of this Presentation Ipsos-Synovate Acquisition The October 2011 Survey Findings High Cost of Living ICC Process Presidential Candidate Preference

Ipsos-Synovate Acquisition

4 © Synovate 2011 Ipsos-Synovate Acquisition About Ipsos: Founded in France in 1975 (and was in 68 countries) Listed on the Paris Stock Exchange (since 1999) Ipsos and Synovate, the 3rd largest global market research company in a consolidating market comprising Way forward: Our new corporate identify “Ipsos-Synovate” Under Ipsos-Synovate management structure and staff remain the same

Methodology

6 © Synovate 2011 Poll Methodology Dates of polling 15 th – 23 rd October 2011 Sample Size 2,000 respondents Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size) Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas Data collection methodology Sampling error +/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the household level

7 © Synovate 2011 Sampling Frame Statistics Population Census as at 2009 (18 years +) Ipsos- Synovate Sample Registered Voters as at ECK 2007 Register Base 19,462,360 2,000 14,088,302 Central13% 16% Coast9% 8% Eastern15% 17% Nairobi10% 8% North Eastern5% 2% Nyanza13% 15% Rift Valley25% 23% Western10% 11% Total100% SPEC Survey was based on the 2009 Kenya Population and Housing Census

8 © Synovate 2011 Sampling Statistics Province Population Census as at 2009 Adults (18 years +) % Ipsos-Synovate Sample % Registered Voters as at ECK 2007 Register % Central 2,548, ,186, Coast 1,711, ,178,319 8 Eastern 2,907, ,374, Nairobi 2,042, ,156,006 8 North Eastern 929, ,489 2 Nyanza 2,547, ,041, Rift Valley 4,795, ,284, Western 1,980, ,564, TOTAL 19,462, ,088,

Findings Key problems facing Kenyans today

10 © Synovate 2011 Base All Respondents : April (n=2,000) ; July (n=2,000)October (n=2,000) “In your opinion, what is the most serious problem facing Kenya today?” SINGLE MENTION ONLY (by Total)

11 © Synovate 2011 Base All Respondents; October (n=2,000) “In your opinion, what is the problems facing Kenya today?” (All problems mentioned by Total sample)

12 © Synovate 2011 Prices of key commodities CommodityApril 2011July 2011October 2011 Maize flour (1 kg)Ksh 40 – 45Ksh 67 – 80Ksh Dry Maize (90 Kg bag)Ksh 2,000 – 2,600Ksh 4, – 4,800Ksh 3,000 – 3,700 Sugar (1 kg)Ksh 94 – 98Ksh 100 – 130Ksh Fuel (1 litre petrol)Ksh 104Ksh Ksh 120 Fuel (1 litre diesel)Ksh 94Ksh Ksh 110 Kerosene (1 litre)Ksh 84Ksh Ksh 88 MilkKsh 28Ksh 28 – 32Ksh 33 Bread (500mg)Ksh Ksh 38 – 40Ksh 43 1 $Ksh 83Ksh 89Ksh 99 Source: Local shops / retail outlets collected by Synovate Inflation rate – October (18.9%) ; September (17.3%) ; January (5.42%) Source - Kenya National Bureau of Statistics)

Performance Ratings - Coalition Government

14 © Synovate 2011 “How would you rate the overall or general performance of the coalition government over the last three months?” Base: (All respondents) % indicating that they are approve/somewhat approve

15 © Synovate 2011 “How well do you think our coalition government is dealing with the problem of..... Are they performing..?” by Total Base: n=2,000 (All respondents) % indicating that government is doing very well + doing well in dealing with the problem

16 © Synovate 2011 “How well do you think our coalition government is dealing with the problem of ?” by Total Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

International Criminal Court (ICC) Process

18 © Synovate 2011 “Did you follow / watch any of the proceedings of the ICC?” By Total Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

19 © Synovate 2011 “Did you follow / watch any of the proceedings of the ICC?” (By Province) Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

20 © Synovate 2011 “How did you follow / watch any of the proceedings of the ICC?” (By Total) Base: n=1,536 (Those who followed proceedings ) Internet

21 © Synovate 2011 “Do you think that the ICC Confirmation Hearings against the Ocampo 6 were conducted fairly?” (By province – those who followed/ watched proceedings) Base: n=1,536 (respondents who watched proceedings) % indicating that the hearings were conducted fairly

22 © Synovate 2011 “Do you think that the ICC Confirmation Hearings against the Ocampo 6 were conducted fairly?” By Total Base: n=1,536 (respondents who watched proceedings) % indicating that the hearings were conducted fairly

23 © Synovate 2011 “If the ICC fails to send the Ocampo 6 to trial, do you think they should be tried in Kenya?” (By Total) Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

24 © Synovate 2011 Base: n=2,000 (All respondents) % indicating that the ICC suspects should be not be tried in Kenya “If the ICC fails to send the Ocampo 6 to trial, do you think they should be tried in Kenya?” (By Province)

Those who support trials ICC Process (Trend over 12 months) % who support ICC Trials Before Ocampo 6 list was unveiled After Ocampo 6 list was unveiled Summons issued to appear at The Hague Post-ICC confirmation of hearing trials Pre-ICC confirmation of hearing trials % who support the ICC Process

Those who support trials ICC Process – By Province (Trend over 12 months)

27 © Synovate 2011 “What did Kibaki do recently to support Francis Muthaura in his ICC case?” by Total Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

28 © Synovate 2011 “Do you think President Kibaki did the right thing by writing a letter to the ICC in defence of Francis Muthaura?” (by Total) Base: n=419 (Those aware of letter written by President Kibaki )

Presidential Elections 2012

30 © Synovate Aspirants have declared interest in the Presidency: 1.Professor James Ole Kiyiapi 2.Professor Chirau Ali Makwere 3.Isaac Jafar 4.Paul Muite 5.Mutava Musyimi 6.Eugene Wamalwa 7.Moses Wetangula 8.Bifwoli Wakoli 9.Martha Karua 10.Uhuru Kenyatta 11.Raila Odinga 12.Kalonzo Musyoka 13.William Ruto 14.Charity Ngilu 15.Moses Mudavadi 16.Peter Kenneth 17.Mike Sonko

31 © Synovate 2011 “Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” by Total Base: n=2,000 (All respondents) Reasons for being undecided: Waiting final list of candidates (39% of undecided) Seeking more information on candidates (40% of undecided) Reasons for being undecided: Waiting final list of candidates (39% of undecided) Seeking more information on candidates (40% of undecided)

32 © Synovate 2011 “Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” by Total TotalCentralCoastEasternNairobiNorth EasternNyanzaRift ValleyWestern Undecided12%8%20%17%10%7%5%9%22%

33 © Synovate 2011 Presidential Candidate Choice -Time Series Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

34 © Synovate 2011 “ If elections were to be held today, how likely do you think it is for any presidential candidate to win on the first round?” by Total Very likely + somewhat likely (67%)

35 © Synovate 2011 “Under the New Constitution, what % of votes must a presidential candidate attain to win in the 1 st round of elections?” (by Province) Those who indicate the right answer Must garner at least 50% + 1 of votes cast

36 © Synovate 2011 “Who would you vote for in case of a run off between…..?” By Total

37 © Synovate 2011 “Who would you vote for in case of a run off between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta?” (By Province) DK (don’t know) : NR (no response) 8% 19% 12% 27% 7%7% 7%7% 9% 13% 23%

38 © Synovate 2011 Candidate voted for in 2007 viz a viz those they would vote for in (By Total) Those who voted for Mwai Kibaki in the 2007 would vote for Those who voted for Raila Odinga the 2007 would vote for

39 © Synovate 2011 “How would you rate the overall or general performance of the following people or institutions? By Total

40 © Synovate 2011 Press Kit PowerPoint Presentation (on CD) Additional information on the methodology, sample distribution by setting (urban and rural), province and district. Detailed Press releases in MS-Word (on CD and hard copy) Audio recording of Kiswahili version of findings (on CD) All Synovate polls posted on the website below;

Questions? Comments?

Detailed Poll Methodology

43 © Synovate 2011 The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A sample size of 2,000 respondents was drawn, using a 32:68 urban to rural ratio. The margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95% confidence level. This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates on the target population opinion. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 15 th to 23 rd, October 2011 To achieve this sample a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) was used. This ensures that districts with a higher population size had a proportionately higher sample size allocation. This survey was conducted in 56 administrative and geographical districts in Kenya The interviews were done at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they allow for pure random sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for quality control. POLL METHODOLOGY

44 © Synovate 2011 These face-to-face in-home interviews are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as respondents have more time to respond to questions as compared to street interviews. The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random starting point was selected within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4 households until the sample size for that cluster in the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was then selected from each qualifying household through a household member randomization technique known as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member selection. In cases where the eligible respondent was not available for interviewing, the field interviewers made at least 3 callbacks. If after the third callback the required respondent was still not available for the interview, the field interviewer substituted that household for another. The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended questions. The poll questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided, including no opinion. This ensures that there is no bias at all with the way the questions are asked. Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork Supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the field managers made 20% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing Poll Methodology (Cont..)

45 © Synovate 2011 Sampling Frame Statistics Population Census as at 2009 (18 years +) Ipsos- Synovate Sample Registered Voters as at ECK 2007 Register Base 19,462,360 2,000 14,088,302 Central13% 16% Coast9% 8% Eastern15% 17% Nairobi10% 8% North Eastern5% 2% Nyanza13% 15% Rift Valley25% 23% Western10% 11% Total100% SPEC Survey was based on the 2009 Kenya Population and Housing Census

46 © Synovate 2011 TotalCentralCoastEasternNairobi North EasternNyanza Rift ValleyWestern 2, Urban37% 51%24%100%21%27%29%21% Rural63% 49%76%0%79%73%71%79% Sampling Frame – Urban & Rural

47 © Synovate 2011 Methodology Sample distribution – District Level Boost sample for Mandera, Kakuma Towns and Daadab Towns; 250 each ProvinceDistrictRuralUrbanTotal Central Kiambu Murang'a Nyeri Thika Kirinyaga Nyandarua Coast Kilifi Kwale Mombasa 060 Malindi Tana River Eastern Kitui Machakos Makueni Meru North 390 Mbeere 220 Meru Central Mwingi 220 Meru South(Nithi) Embu Nairobi 0210 North Eastern Garissa Mandera Wajir

48 © Synovate 2011 Methodology Sample distribution (continued) ProvinceDistrictRuralUrbanTotal Nyanza Gucha 260 Kisii Central Migori Kuria Kisumu Nyamira (North Kisii) Rachuonyo Siaya 270 Bondo Suba 220 Rift Valley Kajiado Nakuru Nandi Trans Nzoia Turkana Uasin Gishu West Pokot 260 Kericho Buret 240 Bomet Koibatek Samburu Narok Laikipia 17623

49 © Synovate 2011 ProvinceDistrictRuralUrbanTotal Western Bungoma Butere/Mumias22628 Kakamega31637 Busia230 Teso16723 Vihiga19928 Lugari220 Total 2,000 Methodology Sample distribution (continued)

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