Climate Applications & Services World Climate Applications & Services Division Climate Prediction & Adaptation Branch Climate & Water Department

Towards Improved Societal Response and Sustainable Development Relevant climate information is expected to improve policy and decision-making Climate data Climate analysis and monitoring capabilities User-targeted climate prediction/information products Climate risk modelling tools – Critical for decision making There is significant diversity in demand and supply of climate information at national level Needs and requirements of the users related to policy and decision-making Needs, requirements and capabilities of providers

WCASP Objectives Development of user-targeted climate services Services for sustainable development at national, regional and global levels Contribute to strategies for adapting to, and mitigating, the adverse impacts of climate and its variations Increased user awareness and liaison Partnership with national/international agencies dealing with application sectors Development of practical methods and techniques including climate prediction products Implementation through CLIPS Project

New developmental needs and associated Climate service needs have emerged Climate can be viewed as a risk and also as a resource; Assessment of Climate Change and Variability with a regional focus; Identification of key vulnerabilities (impact databases, current and future frequency of extremes, …); Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (SIP) and regional climate outlooks; Future climate scenarios; Downscaling of SIP and climate scenarios; Climate-related risk management: Applications of climate products in decision-making; Interpretation and use of probabilistic products; Climate derivative products. A high level of interdisciplinary knowledge is required for the development of climate products including assessment of uncertainties

Value of Climate Information and Services to Society the nature of the dependence of socio-economic activities on climatic factors reliability of climate products including awareness of the associated uncertainties and their implications to decision-making accessibility of credible and useful climate information for decision making liaison between users and climate information providers the ability of users to act on the basis of climate information

Climate Services The term “climate services” refers to the delivery of climate information and predictions from the scientific sources to end-users A service is a service only when it is used; our goal is to make people use climate services in real-world context Climate information is just one of the elements in the decision making matrix Databases of information gathered over many years; NMHSs have great potential to exploit these resources to provide “effective” climate services Predictions of climate variability over the next season or two (seasonal to interannual forecasts) are of immediate relevance

The Espoo Conference Reviewed opportunities and constraints in integrating climate risks and uncertainties into the mainstreams of decision-making where sensitivity to climate variability and change is but one among many factors to consider. The focus was on risk assessment and decision-processes in real-world contexts, including agriculture and food security water resource management human health and disease control energy and built environment disaster preparedness and early warning systems

Climate-related Risk Management Works best if it is: driven by the needs and requirements expressed by relevant decision sectors developed within real-world decision contexts enabled through facilitating institutions and policies based on environmental, sectoral and socioeconomic data based on tailored climate information supported by local capacity included in planning strategies that incorporate incentives supported by sector-specific services from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and related institutions. Extracted from Espoo Statement

Heat Waves and Health Warning Systems Reduce mortality and morbidity associated with life-threatening heatwaves Strengthen WMO/NMHS partnerships with health and social services (global, regional, national) for effective service delivery – Met forecasts alone are insufficient Develop Guidance on and tools for: early warning and detection of health effects of extreme weather/ heat-waves; national/local preparedness planning for extreme heat events; public/media outreach; interventions to save lives. Guidelines on HHWS are being developed jointly by WMO and WHO, with input from IFRC, health research groups and other agencies

Climate and Energy Promote use of climate data and services to support design, construction, planning and operation of their energy systems (renewable and traditional), with the associated benefits in efficiency, cost reduction, and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. New Technical Note under development by CCl on ‘Weather and Climate Aspects of Renewable Energy: Solar and Wind’.

Climate Variability and Change: Issues for Tourism Climate has a high priority in the choice of tourist destinations Climate hazards threaten the infrastructure, the people, the financial networks and the ecosystems that underpin the success of the sector Possible increase in climate-related risks associated with climate change is a matter of concern to the sector Identifying windows of opportunity can contribute to growth of the sector and help optimize the use of climate as a resource Tourism has potential impacts on climate, biodiversity, pollution, water resources which need to be understood to plan its sustainable growth

Urban and Building Climatology New Technical Notes on Building Climatology and Urban Climatology under development by CCl Expert Team Approach to developing building climatology: Stage 1: Produce a basic regional climatology Stage 2: Produce a local urban climatology Stage 3: Provide micro climatic advice Urban climatology and its relevance to urban design

CCl OPAG on CLIPS Research Needs Guides to Best Practices Operations Verification User Liaison ENSO Communication

Global Producing Centres of LRF In 2006, nine centres making global seasonal forecasts were designated as WMO Global Producing Centres (GPCs) GPCs adhere to defined standards – aiding consistency and usability of output: a fixed forecast production cycle a standard set of forecast products WMO-defined verification standards (for retrospective forecasts) GPCs designated: Beijing, ECMWF, Exeter, Melbourne, Montreal, Moscow (pending), Seoul, Tokyo, Toulouse, Washington Access to all GPCs can be found through WMO page: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/producers_forecasts.html A comprehensive set of standard verification measures, with which to communicate the skill of forecasts, has been defined (the WMO Standard Verification System for Long-Range Forecasts – SVSLRF)

Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) RCCs will be Centres of Excellence, designated by CBS and CCl, to perform regional-scale climate functions, including: Operational LRF and Climate Monitoring Coordination between RCCs, GPCs and NMHSs in the region Data services Climate Applications Training and capacity building Research and Development RCCs will be complementary to and supportive of NMHSs, which will deliver all Warnings and national-scale products Establishment of RCCs will be initiated by Regional Associations, based on regional needs and priorities RAs will ensure guidance for and coordination between RCCs

RCCs and climate prediction GPC global products essential input to RCCs RCCs will downscale and develop regional-scale prediction products RCCs will serve NMHSs, all latitudes/regions End-users are sectoral experts, governments, the public Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) would provide an outreach arm to the GPC/RCC operations, to engage regional climate/user communities and building networks of communities sharing common climate problems, particularly among developing countries.

Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) A component of CLIPS First established in 1996: Meeting in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe. Regional mechanism for the formulation and dissemination of climate forecasts and outlooks Bring together providers of and users of SIPs. RCOFs constitute an important vehicle in developing regions for providing advance information on the likely climate features of the upcoming season, and for developing a consensus product from amongst the multiple available individual predictions. RCOFs stimulate the development of climate capacity in the NMHSs of the area, and do much to generate decisions and activities that mitigate adverse impacts of climate and help communities adapt to climate variability. Global review of RCOFs: November 2008, Arusha, Tanzania.

Existing RCOFs worldwide (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/outlooks/climate_forecasts.html)

Global Climate Prediction Framework Global Producing Centres (GPCs) and Lead Centres Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) NMHSs National Users RCOFs Global and Regional Users

WMO Initiative to Support Climate Change Adaptation Endorsed by WMO Executive Council in June 2008. Mission: To facilitate provision of user oriented climate information, products, advisories and services to support national and regional climate risk assessment, climate adaptation planning and implementation practices for sustainable development

Objectives Facilitate use of climate information for mainstreaming climate risks in decision making Make available data and information for developing adaptation strategies and integrating them in national development agenda Enhance the national capacities in provision of user-oriented climate information Help develop regional capacities Support the scientific foundation for climate adaptation strategies

Observations Research Climate Information Capacity for Adaptation U T P S Observations Research Data bases Climate Scenarios Climate Predictions Climate Information for Adaptation User Specific Sectoral Advisory Services Capacity Building Climate Monitoring Information Outlooks Risk Assessment Early Warnings I N A V E Feedback

WMO Initiative to Support Climate Change Adaptation Climate Information and Products Climate Risks Assessment Climate Outlooks Early Warnings Regional Climate Centres Regional Climate Outlook Forums National Hydro-met Services User Forums A · P · P · L · I · C · A · T · I · O · N · S

Concluding Remarks In many regions, there is limited use of climate information for decision making within climate-sensitive sectors. It is important to find ways for all countries to cope with climate variability through improved access to climate information and prediction products and the use of risk management techniques. Location-specific information crucial; downscaling Sector-specific climate indices (ETCCDI approach through partnerships with stakeholders) Ownership Observations to support regional/national vulnerability assessments as well as development and validation of modelling tools to support decision making GPC-RCC-RCOF-NMHS climate prediction framework will need strong observational support and user participation to be effective. The WMO Initiative to Support Climate Change Adaptation aims to tap into complementary efforts under different programmes, including GCOS, to meet the user needs.