WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Development Project (SWFDP) Ken Mylne Chair DPFS (Data-processing and Forecasting Systems) & Chair SWFDP SG WMO; WDS

Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards. (World Meteorological Congress, 2007 and 2011) Implemented through the Severe Weather Forecasting Development Project (SWFDP)Implementation of a Cascading Forecasting Process, an approach that provides improved access to, and effective use by forecasters of existing and newly developed NWP/EPS products made available by advanced GDPFS Centres, national forecasting and warning services have improved significantly, with increased lead-times and greater reliability. (World Meteorological Congress, 2011)

WMO Improve Severe Weather Forecasting through the Cascading Forecasting Process (Global to Regional to National) Improve lead-time of Warnings Improve interaction of NMHSs with users Identify areas for improvement and requirements for the Basic Systems Improve the skill of products from WMO Operational centres through feedback SWFDP Main Goals

SWFDP Development and Implementation: a 4-step cycle Establish regional partnerships ­Regional management teams; focus on forecasting and warning services of meteorological-related hazards Plan and develop of prototype demonstration project ­Regional project-specific IP for which the management team is accountable. IP describes team members responsibilities, project activities and milestones (typically for months) Implement demonstration project ­Tracking, continuously evaluation, training and reporting Broaden and sustain successful prototypes ­(return to step 1) Under the Guidance of the Steering Group of the SWFDP

Global NWP centres to provide available NWP/EPS and sat-based products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame; Regional centres to interpret information received from global centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs; NMCs to issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; to liaise with user communities, and to contribute feedback and evaluation of the project; NMCs have access to all products, and maintained responsibility and authority over national warnings and services. 5 Global Centres User communities, including Disaster Management authorities NMCsRSMC Pretoria SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process

RSMC analysis forecast information Guidance every day for the next 5 days Hazards: heavy rain, strong wind, high seas and swell, severe winter weather Guidance info made available through dedicated Webpage to NMCs Links to RSMC La Réunion TC forecasting SWFDP Guidance Products from RSMC Pretoria

SWFDP – Eastern Africa – Lake Victoria (status/progress) WMO Focus on: Strong winds Heavy precipitation Hazardous waves (Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria) Dry spells Users: general public, disaster management, media, agriculture and fisheries Domains: 5E – 55E; 30N – 25S (for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying the various severe weather events) 31E – 36E; 2N – 4S (for the Lake Victoria) Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP (NWP guidance material) MSG satellite products (EUMETSat products) Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by TMA, UKMO and DWD National Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia Started September 2011

Vision for the SWFDP as an end-to-end, cross- programme collaborative activity (led by the GDPFS) that engages all WMO programmes that concern the real-time prediction of hydro-meteorological hazards, through their respective technical commissions: from observations, to information exchange, to delivery of services to the public and a range of targeted applications/user sectors, education and training, capacity development and support to LDCs, and to the transfer of relevant promising research outputs into operations. (World Meteorological Congress, 2011) WMO Strategic Priorities Disaster Risk Reduction Capacity Development GFCS - Climate change adaptation

WMO Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria, RSMC-TC La R é union) Southwest Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington, RSMC-TC Fiji) Eastern Africa (ongoing, 6 countries; RSMC Nairobi, RFSC Dar) Southeast Asia (in development, 5 countries; RFSC Hanoi) Bay of Bengal (in development, 6 countries; RSMC-TC New Delhi) WMO global and regional operational centres (e.g. RSMCs) 42 NMHSs of developing countries (29 of which are LDCs/SIDSs) Several WMO programmes (i.e. GDPFS, PWS, TCP, DRR, MMO, AgM, SP, ETR, CD, LDC, RP, and WWRP) and technical commissions (i.e. CBS, CAgM, CHy, JCOMM, and CAS) SWFDP Regional Projects

SWFDP: a cross-cutting activity involving multiple TCs and Progs, concerning prediction of hydro-meteorological hazards Regional Centre (RSMCs, RFSC, RCCs) Global Centres RSMCs-TC Global NWP/EPS and Sat-based products TCP LAM & Guidance Products (risk/probability) GDPFS National Met Centres (Forecast/Warning Bulletins) PWS General Public, media, disaster management authorities Capacity Development (CD), including Training (ETR) Feedback and Verification PWS, HWR, WCP General Public, media, disaster management authorities Specific User Sectors (Agriculture, Marine, Aviation, etc.) AgM, MMO, AeM, etc. Satellite Imagery and Tools SP Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized Applications AgM, MMO, AeM, WCP, etc. WWRP Research Projects Flash Flood Guidance HWR Regional Centre (RSMCs, RFSC, RCCs) Observing and information systems WIGOS, WIS

SWFDP links and synergies Regional Centre Global Centres RSMCs-TC Global NWP/EPS and Sat-based products TC Guidance Products (risk/probability) GDPFS National Met Centres (Forecast D / D+5; Bulletins) SMS; Weather Radio Systems; Public Web; etc. PWS Disaster Management and Civil Protection Specific Communication Systems Media ; etc. Radio; TV Flash Flood Guidance HWR Disaster Management and Civil Protection Specific Communication Systems General Public WWRP Research Projects Satellite Imagery and Tools WMO SP General Public and spec. users (Agriculture, Fisheries, Marine Safety, Aviation, etc.) Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized Applications AgM, MMO, AeM, etc. Specific Comm. Systems

WMO Sustain/strengthen existing RSMCs Expanding the role of existing RSMCs-TC Establish new regional centres Infrastructure (development and maintaining the Website) Global and regional guidance Global and Regional Training Desks (in addition to the annual training) National IPs (uptake of NWP/EPS and sat-based products into weather forecasting daily routines of the forecasters and user engagement) Continuous development - introduce new products and increase use of NWP/EPS in applications of meteorology (Cascading Forecasting Process) SWFDP Regional Centres Challenging!

SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings Severe weather: heavy rain, strong winds –High-impact focus (flash-flooding, damaging winds, near-shore damaging waves, landslides); Forecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time) Forecasting (GDPFS), warning services (PWS) Forecast Verification Phase-in other developments Training for forecasters and disaster managers Technological gaps: –Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized events –Lack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h) –Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations –Internet-based

SWFDP – Cooperating with Research … incorporating promising research outputs into real-time SWFDP demonstrations … WWRP GIFS - TIGGE - Tropical Cyclone track; extreme events (wind, precip, temps; soon to be near-real-time) Forecast Verification Research (e.g. SWFDP – Eastern Africa) Nowcasting Research – very short-range forecasting (< 12h; possibly SWFDP-SeAsia, SWFDP-Eastern Africa) Sub-seasonal forecasting (e.g. SWFDP- Eastern Africa) Public weather services & DRR, with SERA

GIFS products for SWFDP (MRI-JMA) SWFDP: - Southern Africa - Eastern Africa - Southwest Pacific - Southeast Asia

Global Hazard Map Summary map to track features through days of forecast Daily map to overlay different hazards and vulnerability layers

Future directions and role of the SWFDP More countries, new regions (over 100 countries: developing and least developed countries) ~ 12 RSMCs Hydro-meteorological hazards Sector-specific hazards (e.g. agriculture, marine, etc.) Beyond day-5 Vehicle for introducing promising R&D Cross-programme guidance Regular budget and extrabudgetary resourses Project Office Ultimate Goal: Establishing a National Severe Weather Warnings Programme for every Member of WMO

Thank you for your attention DISCUSSION

WMO Successful recipe – real benefits to developing and least developed countries High impact, cost effective Visible operational results – increased visibility, credibility and value of meteorological services Management framework at regional level (partnerships): collective needs, motivation, buy-in, ownership, continuous learning Accelerated technology transfer to less capable national centres through the Cascading Forecasting Process Increased role of the regional centres in downscaling and tailoring products for practical use by NMHSs Model/framework can be applied to any time-scales and a range of applications/user sectors SWFDP – Lessons learnt

WMO SWFDP – Resources Regular budget: GDPFS financially supported the SWFDP-related events, including training, while a number of WMO Programmes (e.g. ETR, PWS, TCP, SAT, AgM, WWRP) have collaboratively provided limited funds to support expert participation at some of the SWFDP- related meetings Support from advanced global centres that provide NWP/EPS and satellite-based products, and the backbone roles played by the regional centres are critical components for the implementation of the SWFDP, which represent in-kind contributions by WMO Members Extra-budgetary funds from WMO Members, and donor agencies (e.g. World Bank, etc.) Staff: DPFS (responsible for the overall project), with the collaboration of PWS and AgM

What next? Assist in sustaining the linkages between regional and national centres in their geographical regions; and global to regional Build upon the lessons learnt through the SWFDP Increase, the capacity of NMHSs in developing and least developing countries to deliver weather, climate and hydrological forecasting and warning services Consolidate the SWFDP into sustainable operational services (e.g through an ongoing programme to strengthen WMO Operational Centres, particularly RSMCs and RCCs) – aligned with the WMO Capacity Development Strategy (Objective 5)