REMSAD Simulation of the BRAVO Tracer Experiment Michael G. Barna Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 10 October 2002

The Modeling Process…. Primer on BRAVO Modeling:

Tracer Release Rates – Phase 1 (July 5 – September 16):

Tracer Release Rates – Phase 2 (Sept. 17 – October 30):

Tracer Release Sites and 6 hr Receptors:

PDCH tracer from Eagle Pass BBNP PDCH tracer from Eagle Pass BBNP Dispersion is a Lagrangian Process:

And a Three-Dimensional One:

Contour Maps of the Four Tracers:

Eagle Pass 12 Hour Timing Tracer at Marathon (PTCH):

Eagle Pass 24 Hour Timing Tracer at Monahans (PDCB):

Eagle Pass 24 Hour Timing Tracer at Big Bend (PDCB):

Eagle Pass Continuous Tracer at Persimmon Gap (PDCH):

Eagle Pass Continuous Tracer at Big Bend (PDCH):

San Antonio Tracer at Fort Stockton (PDCB):

Predicted and Observed Average Tracer Concentrations:

Correlation Coefficient:

Observed and Predicted PDCH – All monitors: y = x R = 0.25

Conclusions: Some skill in replicating timing (but often not magnitude) of the 12 hr and 24 hr Eagle Pass timing tracers Measured and predicted tracer concentration from Big Brown (PPCH) low (< 1 ppqV) Model tends to over-predict average concentrations at southern monitors Correlation coefficients: 0.05 – 0.65