Mid-Continent Intensive Campaign Synthesis Stephen M. Ogle Natural Resources Ecology Laboratory Colorado State University Co-Investigators: K. Davis, A. Andrews, F.J. Breidt, A.S. Denning, D. Cooley, T. West, K. Gurney, A. Hirsch, K. Paustian and P. Tans Contributors (to date): A. Michalak, C. Potter, C. Tonitto, S. Liu, C. Izaurralde, L. Heath Data Support: Bob Cook (MAST-DC)

Study Region

C CO 2 C Main Goal of MCI Synthesis Compare and reconcile to the extent possible CO 2 fluxes from inventories and atmospheric inversions Compare and reconcile to the extent possible CO 2 fluxes from inventories and atmospheric inversions Atmospheric Inversions Inventories

Quantifying Regional CO 2 Fluxes Inventory Methods Inventory Methods Approaches using activity data and environmental drivers to estimate CO 2 uptake and/or emission at the earth surface, and these methods typically incorporate measurements and/or modeling (IPCC 2006). Approaches using activity data and environmental drivers to estimate CO 2 uptake and/or emission at the earth surface, and these methods typically incorporate measurements and/or modeling (IPCC 2006). MCI using mostly model-based approaches, which are informed by measurements MCI using mostly model-based approaches, which are informed by measurements e.g., ecosystem simulation modeling e.g., ecosystem simulation modeling Atmospheric Inversions Atmospheric Inversions Approaches utilizing spatio-temporal data on atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 along with transport models to estimate regional fluxes between the earth surface and atmosphere Approaches utilizing spatio-temporal data on atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 along with transport models to estimate regional fluxes between the earth surface and atmosphere

Supporting Goals Compare inventories with independent data (?) Compare inventories with independent data (?) Ameriflux Ameriflux NASS-derived NPP estimates for cropland NASS-derived NPP estimates for cropland Purpose: Inform comparisons with inversions Purpose: Inform comparisons with inversions Not a model inter-comparison study! Not a model inter-comparison study! Comparisons of atmospheric inversion results Comparisons of atmospheric inversion results Purpose: Inform comparisons with inventory data Purpose: Inform comparisons with inventory data Evaluation of mechanisms driving net fluxes Evaluation of mechanisms driving net fluxes How well do we understand the key drivers based on the study? How well do we understand the key drivers based on the study?

Interim Synthesis Initial comparison of atmospheric inversions and inventory of CO 2 fluxes for the region Initial comparison of atmospheric inversions and inventory of CO 2 fluxes for the region Focus on Focus on Serve as a benchmark for evaluating improvement in flux estimation based on intensive campaign Serve as a benchmark for evaluating improvement in flux estimation based on intensive campaign Test approaches and refine for synthesis Test approaches and refine for synthesis Tasks to reach the interim synthesis milestone Tasks to reach the interim synthesis milestone Develop protocol and MAST-DC web support Develop protocol and MAST-DC web support Locate contributors from NACP and related projects Locate contributors from NACP and related projects Compile Inventory Compile Inventory Generate Comparisons Generate Comparisons Reconcile Reconcile

Inventory Contributions SourcesT. West C. Tonitto K. Gurney S. Ogle L. Heath S. Liu C. Potter C. Izaurralde Fossil Fuel Combustion X X Biomass C XX XXXX Litter C X X Soil Organic C XX X X X Livestock Respiration X Human Respiration X Agricultural Product Import/Export X Forest Product Import/Export X Waste Management/Landfills CO 2 Flux from Waterways/Lakes

Inversion Contributors A. S. Denning, Colorado State A. S. Denning, Colorado State P. Tans and group, NOAA, CarbonTracker P. Tans and group, NOAA, CarbonTracker A. Michalak, Michigan A. Michalak, Michigan

MAST-DC MCI Web page MCI Web page WebGIS with MCI spatial information WebGIS with MCI spatial information Select input driver data Select input driver data FTP upload site and meta-data tool for data submissions FTP upload site and meta-data tool for data submissions Facilitating discussion among investigators and synthesis groups Facilitating discussion among investigators and synthesis groups

Upcoming Time Line and Events Receive remaining contributions – ASAP!!! Receive remaining contributions – ASAP!!! NACP Investigators Meeting, Feb NACP Investigators Meeting, Feb Present results from comparisons Present results from comparisons MCI working group meeting to discuss current results and next steps MCI working group meeting to discuss current results and next steps San Diego, CA San Diego, CA Project Workshop in May-June 2009 Project Workshop in May-June 2009 Present results and discuss findings in preparation of manuscripts Present results and discuss findings in preparation of manuscripts Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO Investigators and Contributors Investigators and Contributors Submit manuscripts on interim synthesis, summer 2009 Submit manuscripts on interim synthesis, summer 2009 … Followed by initial work on data … Followed by initial work on data