Introduction Livestock owners in Kazakhstan and Krygyzstan herd sheep and goats for meat and fiber for home use and sale. The indigenous breeds of small stock in the region produce high quality fibers. For example, laboratory tests show cashmere from some Kazakh goats to be equal in quality to cashmere sold for high prices in international markets. However, livestock owners typically shear their animals, reducing fiber length and combining guard hairs and cashmere. Also, Factors Related to Marketing Success for Fiber Producers in Middle Asia Randall B. Boone 1 and Kathleen A. Galvin 1,2 1 Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, 1499 Campus Delivery, and the 2 Department of Anthropology, 1787 Campus Delivery, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA Conclusions Modeling the small stock population and economy independently of other owner costs and attributes proved helpful. Combing rather than shearing fiber of high-quality goats can double net profits. Results Data allowed almost all parameters to be set explicitly. In the simulation of current conditions (i.e., ‘Shearing’), the goat herd, numbers sold, bought, and slaughtered, fiber sales, etc. matched the data well, and were robust in sensitivity analyses. Net profit from the flock ($452/yr, 54 goats, 87 sheep) was consistent with earlier results. Study Areas and Methods Household surveys (n=50) from three villages (Fig. 1) in southern Kazakhstan include- ed detail on herds, cultivation, sales, and expenses. A system dynamics modeling tool called Stella ® was used to represent a typical live- stock owner. Figure 1. Villages in the study. Figure 2. The schematic, with (a) population, and (b) economic, submodels. Figure 4. Net profit from goats. Acknowledgements Research was supported by the Global Livestock Collaborative Research Support of the Office of Agriculture and Food Security, US AID under grant PCE-G Figure 3. Sales of goat fiber. Goat and sheep numbers were modeled for 50 years. Profits and expenses were modeled, including buying and selling animals, taxes, transport fees, and selling skins and fiber. Family labor costs were excluded. In experiments, goat fiber was increased from its sheared, unsorted value ($1.38/kg, or 182 tenge/kg) to $15/kg (1992 tenge/kg) for sale within villages of combed, sorted fiber, to $24/kg (3187 tenge/kg) for combed, sorted fiber sold at market. When combed, fiber per goat was reduced from 0.52 to 0.2 kg. Transport costs were zero when selling to local buyers, but were increased to $6 (804 tenge), based on data from other villages and the distances between farms and the Turkestan market. Distance was taken from high resolution satellite images. Analyses focused on goat fiber, for current shearing, combing sold locally, and sale at market. owners sell unsorted fiber to local buyers for low prices. The CSU portion of the GL-CRSP WOOL project has been promoting comb- ing, sorting, and selling cashmere in competitive markets. We used a systems modeling approach to simulate the economics of a small stock herd in south-central Kazakhstan. We quantified, in an integrated way, the value of combing and sorting fiber, and of transporting that fiber to larger markets. Model Structure For brevity, the model structure is shown schematically (Figs. 2), with components shaded. Similar sub-models are in place for the sheep herd. Owners may sell goats, if the herd is large. Goats are slaughtered at a rate set using household data. Goats reproduce at a typical birth rate. Owners may buy goats, if the herd is small and cash is in excess. Other mortality is based on forage, which was set using satellite images. Fiber sales are the main item of interest. Owners also sell skins. Taxes must be paid, and veterinary certificates acquired. Other expenses include fodder, veterinary, and labor costs. Goats sold and bought add to and subtract from profits. Excess profits are banked, and used for farm or family needs. Transport costs for animals, skins, and fiber subtract from profits. Average fiber income rose from $38/yr to $173/yr when owners combed goats. Herd size rose as well, due to more animals purch- ased. When fiber was trans- ported, $278/yr was sold (Fig. 3). Net profit doubled when owners combed fiber, and rose further when fiber was transported to a large market (Fig. 4). Expenses such as transport, fodder, and labor costs increased, but these were offset by higher sale prices. Transporting light-weight fiber to large markets adds small and relatively fixed costs, and larger net profits.