Commonwealth Financial Network ® does not provide legal or tax advice. You should consult a legal or tax professional regarding your individual situation. Securities and advisory services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network ®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. Presented by Matt Parsons & Julia Lindberg 525 N 9 th St, Cottage Grove, Oregon W 13 th Ave, Suite 205, Eugene, Oregon (541) Fourth-Quarter 2012 Market Overview
Economic Summary: Fourth-Quarter 2012 Milestones –Barack Obama wins reelection. –Consumer optimism in the U.S. rises to a 5-year high. –Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit abruptly resigns. –Germany’s lawmakers respond favorably to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) bond-buying program. –Hurricane Sandy hits Northeast U.S. –A fiscal cliff patchwork deal is announced at the 11th hour. Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Economic Summary: Fourth-Quarter 2012 continued Milestones continued –China introduces its next leadership team. –Oil production in the U.S. rises to a 15-year high. –The European Union breaks its deadlock and gives the ECB power over eurozone banks. –The Federal Reserve links rate hikes to an unemployment rate of 6.5 percent. –The MSCI EAFE and Emerging Market indices outperform domestic large-cap equities. Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Economic Themes Equity/fixed income Housing Credit and banking Employment Consumer behavior Business and manufacturing activity Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average: Fourth-Quarter 2012 Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
2012: Equity Returns by Style Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. ValueBlendGrowth Large Mid Small Source: Commonwealth Asset Management/Bloomberg
2012: Fixed Income Returns by Style Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Commonwealth Asset Management/Bloomberg
Fixed Income Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Fixed Income continued Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Fixed Income continued Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Announcement
Housing: Prices and Supply
Housing: Housing Affordability
Credit and Banking
Credit and Banking continued
Employment Source: Commonwealth Asset Management/Bloomberg Strong!
Employment continued
Business and Manufacturing Activity
Business and Manufacturing Activity continued Strong move!
Business and Manufacturing Activity continued
Equities: Utilities P/E divided by Technology P/E Source: Commonwealth Asset Management/Bloomberg
Conclusions Job growth was strong in the fourth quarter, with unemployment at 7.8 percent. Inflation is not a large concern, for now. The ISM moved back into positive territory. Dividend sectors, especially utilities, remain relatively expensive. Decreased savings and credit expansion could create a tailwind for the economy. Housing could create a sizeable tailwind for GDP. Europe initiated backdrop for more stability, though structural issues remain.
Looking Forward... Key themes to monitor –Employment improvement necessary for sustained recovery –Earnings season for fourth quarter (beat or miss estimates?) –Impact of quantitative easing on housing market –The end of quantitative easing? –European recovery: Is it sustainable? –Direction of ISM and Labor indices over coming months
Looking Forward... continued More key themes to monitor –Debt ceiling debate in the first quarter –Housing market recovery and translation to GDP –China’s manufacturing resurgence –Italian elections in February –German elections in September/October
Disclosure Investing involves risks, including loss of principal amount invested due to market fluctuations. All indices are unmanaged, and investors cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporate Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. The Merrill Lynch Municipal Master Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade tax- exempt debt publicly issued by U.S. states and territories, and their political subdivisions, in the U.S. domestic market. The Bank of America/Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated below-investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability. The commodities industries can be significantly affected by commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.