Planning for Agriculture and Food Winnipeg July 14, 2008 Implications of Climate Change for Food Production Planning for adaptation and adaptive capacity

Four Key Points to Make Relevant to Planning 1. Specific Adaptations 2. Capacity of people to adapt 3. Capacity of plans and policies to adapt 4. Don’t forget the mitigation + adaptation nexus [Government of Canada 2007]

Palliser’s Triangle In 1860 Captain John Palliser, British North American Exploring Expedition, warned that disaster would befall those who tried to settle the region.

Drought: A long history of bad experience –1906; – (quarter million people displaced); –1961; – ; –1980; – ; –1988; – (“the worst ever?” $3.6 B Ag /$5.8 B GDP/ jobs lost

Weather Stresses cited by Manitoba Farmers

Precipitation Variability ( )

Spatial Distribution of Temperature Increases Surface Source: IPCC, 2007

Projected surface temperature change Source: IPCC, 2007 ( C)

Climate Change on the Prairies

Benefits: – warmer and longer growing seasons and a warmer winter – Increasing temperature will be positive for crop growth and yield, up to certain thresholds. Negative impacts: – from changes in timing of precipitation – Increased risk of droughts and associated pests – Increased risk of excessive moisture Impacts on Agriculture

Planning for Adaptation

Coping and Adaptation Responses of Farmers Interviewed - Manitoba Employ a standard farm practice Alter a farm cycle for no longer than one season Access outside help from within the agricultural sector Wait it out. Work longer or do extra work. Make crop insurance claims. Work with the weather Use technological advances. Increase buffering capacity Reduce seeding or other inputs. Alter a farm cycle for more than one season. Use local associations and support networks.

Example Adaptations Relevant to Land Use Planning Reduced Tillage – Increase soil moisture and decreased erosion, while also reducing input costs. – Also beneficial in wetter times, such as by allowing travel on soggy land. – Important to ensure responsible use of herbicides to prevent negative long-term impacts Land Drainage – Properly maintained drainage infrastructure can increase short and medium-term capacity to cope with heavy rainfall and excess moisture. – However, long-term adaptation is better enabled by investing in changes that mimic the natural landscape (e.g., managed wetlands, constructing prairie potholes) to act to retain water in times of drought and regulate water in wetter periods.

Planning for Mitigation + Adaptation IISD 2004

A Generalized Vulnerability Framework V = f(Exposure, Adaptive Capacity) Smit and Pilifosova (2003) Vulnerability Exposure Adaptive Capacity

Economic Resources Technology Information, skills and management Infrastructure Data Sources 2001 Census of Agriculture, 2001 Census of Population, 2005 Statistics Canada report on … Institutions and Networks Equity Adaptive Capacity Diversity of Employment opportunities Income generation Relative to summary expenses Income generation Relative to capital investment Off-farm earnings Technological exposure Computer technology Water access technology Technological flexibility Experience and wisdom Soil resource Management practices Enterprise Information Management Environmental Management practices Transportation network Surface water resource Soil resource Groundwater resource Access to agri Education institutions use Social capital (via Informal networks) Internet use Distribution of Income in the Agri. population Access to health And social services Employment opportunities Distribution of Income in general population

Important are … 1.The capacity of people to adapt; AND 2.The capacity of plans and policies to adapt

From the Summary: “When situations are characterized by variability, uncertainty and change, conventional planning scenarios provide little guidance regarding future needs and conditions.” “…clear need for frameworks that are "adaptive" - that reflect uncertainties and can respond and adapt as contexts change or unforeseen problems emerge.” “Specific solutions are less important than the existence of processes and frameworks that enable solutions to be identified and implemented as specific constraints and contexts change.”

framework for adaptive policies Adaptive Policy Ability of policy to adapt to anticipated conditions (based on a good understanding of cause and effect) (based on a good understanding of system dynamics and complexity) Automatic Adjustment Formal Review & Improvement Regular review; pilot testing; experimentation Monitoring to trigger policy adjustments Ability of policy to adapt to unanticipated conditions Multi-perspective Deliberation To accurately inform policy design and recognize emerging issues Multi-perspective Analysis to perform in a range of anticipated scenarios Decentralization Matching scales of ecosystems and governance Variation Multiple interventions; diversity and risk spreading Self-organization & Social Networks Encourage interaction and initiative to foster innovative responses

Summary of Four Key Points for Planning 1. Specific Adaptations 2. Capacity of people to adapt 3. Capacity of plans and policies to adapt 4. Don’t forget the mitigation + adaptation nexus