CALPINE July 22, 2003 Wyoming Pipeline Authority Calpine Corporation KEY ISSUES FOR NATURAL GAS AND POWER COLIN COE DIRECTOR, FUELS
CALPINE July 22, 2003R CALPINE OVERVIEW
CALPINE July 22, 2003R FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENT Certain of the information discussed in this presentation may contain forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of Calpine Corporation. We wish to caution you that these statements are only estimates and that actual events or results may differ materially. We refer you to the documents the Company files from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically the Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q. These documents contain and identify important factors that could cause the Company’s actual future results to differ materially from those contained in such forward-looking statements.
CALPINE July 22, 2003R FOCUSED STRATEGY North America Power Markets Modern, Gas-Fired Plants Wholesale Markets Balanced Gas / Power Portfolio
CALPINE July 22, 2003R To Paraphrase Mark Twain…. “rumors of our death …” 2001 provides a challenging year: Weak Economy – poor spark spreads The Enron shock affects confidence Equity Financing option vanishes Debt Financing Challenges But we have survived – “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger”
CALPINE July 22, 2003R Spark Spreads – an overview Efficiency Factor = Heat Rate 7000 HRt vs 10,000 HRt per hour Gas price x my HRt = my cost 7000 HRt x $5.00 = $35 MW If market is a 10,000 HRt = $50 MW My “spark spread” is $50 – 35 =$15 $15/MW/hr x 24 x 500 MW = $180k 84,000 MMBtu/d vs 120,000/day
CALPINE July 22, 2003R FINANCIAL GROWTH 19,046 $7,458
CALPINE July 22, 2003R LONG-TERM OUTLOOK REMAINS ATTRACTIVE Electricity is a Vital Component of Our Society Consumption is Up (1) 4.11% Over 2001 3.48% - YTD 2003 Over Same Period in 2002 Significant New Project Cancellations Continued Pressure on Aging, Polluting Fleet Prices Trending Upward (1) Source: Edison Electric Institute
CALPINE July 22, 2003R CALPINE’S GROWING PORTFOLIO Net Megawatts Assumes No New Projects 7,755 19,249 26,330 28,800 29,940
CALPINE July 22, 2003R CALPINE’S POWER PORTFOLIO
CALPINE July 22, 2003R CALPINE CORPORATION — A PREMIER POWER COMPANY (1)Source: Platts’ “202 Independent Power Companies” Largest U.S. Independent Power Companies (1) 27,600 20,686 17,831 15,006 14,441 CoalCCGTOther
CALPINE July 22, 2003R CALPINE’S GROWING GAS CONSUMPTION * 2004 Consumption Approximately Equal to 22 mmtpy *
CALPINE July 22, 2003R CALPINE’S GAS PORTFOLIO 1 tcf of Proved Reserves Provides Hedge to Fixed-Price Revenue Contracts Exploit Proved Reserves Value in Excess of $1.3 Billion Active Producer Services Group
CALPINE July 22, 2003R CURRENT CALPINE GAS RESERVES & PRODUCTION LEVELS 950 Bcfe278 Mmcfe/day
CALPINE July 22, 2003R ECONOMIC AND REGULATORY BARRIERS IN MEETING DEMANDS FOR NATURAL GAS Capital Markets — Credit Commodity Markets — Indexes Supply/Demand — Perspectives
CALPINE July 22, 2003R CAPITAL MARKETS — CREDIT Tightened Capital Markets Credit Downgrades Increased Credit Requirements FERC Actions NAESB Efforts Pipeline Expansions
CALPINE July 22, 2003R COMMODITY MARKETS — INDEXES Fewer Participants Reduced Transparency and Confidence Price Indexes
CALPINE July 22, 2003R GAS PRODUCTION -THAT 70’S SHOW Gas: Enough for Present Customers, but How About the New Ones? — Nation’s Business, July 1971 Natural Gas Users Howl Over Shortages — Business Week; November 17, 1973 We’re Running Out of Gas — The New York Times Magazine; March 19, 1972
CALPINE July 22, 2003R U.S TOTAL GAS CONSUMPTION Total U.S. Natural Deliveries January-November 2002 (U.S. EIA)
CALPINE July 22, 2003R U.S. POWER MARKET – GAS FOCUS Huge Market Growing Demand Inefficient Plants Environmental Concerns
CALPINE July 22, 2003R EMISSIONS Units Natural Gas (combined-cycle) New Coal Percent Reduction (% gas cleaner than coal) Plant Heat Rate (net)Btu/kWh7,0008,800 Nitrogen Oxide (NO x ) lb/mmBtu lb/mwh % 89.5% Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) lb/mmBtu lb/mwh % 99.7% Carbon Dioxide (CO2) lb/mmBtu lb/mwh , % 54.1% Carbon Monoxide (CO) lb/mmBtu lb/mwh % 95.56% Mercury (Hg) lb/mmBtu lb/mwh % Respirable Particulates (PM)lb/mmBtu %
CALPINE July 22, 2003R CONCLUSIONS Gas Fired Electric Generation Will Grow Natural Gas Production Must Increase Pipeline Infrastructure Must be Proactive Creative Gas Contracting Needed
CALPINE July 22, 2003 CALPINE