28 February 2007Réka Horváth 1 Residential Internet and Broadband take-up in Portugal

Réka Horváth ANACOM Seminar 28 February 2007

28 February 2007Réka Horváth 3 Background ANACOM data gathering Anacom studies: Inquérito sobre o Consumo do Acesso à Internet em Banda Larga em Portugal Econometric analysis of the data (2004 and 2005)

28 February 2007Réka Horváth 4 Objective Impact of different factors on internet and broadband use. Is there a digital divide?  Regional characteristics  Individual/family characteristics Any significant change over the two samples?

28 February 2007Réka Horváth 5 Expectations Other studies:  Stanton 2004: existence of digital divide  Schleife 2006: important individual factors and not-so-important regional characteristics Anacom statistical analysis: obvious differences across groups Differences over time are more difficult to ‘predict’

28 February 2007Réka Horváth 6 Methodology Discreet choice models Internet choice:  Connected to the internet  No internet connection Multiple choice between types of connection:  Broadband connection  Dial-up access  No internet connection

28 February 2007Réka Horváth 7 More on methodology Probabilities vs. odds: odds = prob/(1-prob) Logit assumption: odds(having an internet connection) = exp(x j b + b 0 ) or probability(having an internet connection) = exp(x j b + b 0 )/[ 1+ exp(x j b + b 0 )] Multinomial logit assumption: odds[broadband if (broadband or no internet connection)] = exp(x j b 1 + b 0 1 )  possible to trace out the broadband/narrowband choice parameters

28 February 2007Réka Horváth 8 Data Collected in December 2005 Around 4200 households, 1600 with income data Telephone interview (those with fixed lines)

28 February 2007Réka Horváth 9 Variables Explanatory variables that are (jointly) significant at least at 10% Geographic variables:  Region  Settlement size Individual/household characteristics:  Gender  Employment status  Age  Children  Social class  Educational attainment  Income

28 February 2007Réka Horváth 10 Results - interpretation Example: the odds ratio associated with the Lisbon region is 1.6: odds for having internet access of a family in Lisbon are 60% higher than for a household in Madeira (the base category) Odds ratios are constant in the logit model (do not depend on the values of other variables) It is possible to calculate marginal changes in probabilities at given levels of all explanatory variables. It is customary to calculate these values at the means but it is awkward in case of dummy variables Odds ratio:

28 February 2007Réka Horváth 11 Results – Internet use I.

28 February 2007Réka Horváth 12 Results – Internet use II.

28 February 2007Réka Horváth 13 Results – Broadband vs. narrowband I. Problem of lack of information on availability of broadband The results presented here are those of the binary logit for ‘broadband/narrowband use’ for the subsample of internet users

28 February 2007Réka Horváth 14 Results – Broadband vs. narrowband II.

28 February 2007Réka Horváth 15 Comparison of results over time Internet choice:  Some regional shifts (before Lisbon, now Central-Portugal and Algarve with higher odds)  The size and significance of other variables is very similar across years Broadband/narrowband/no internet choice  Coefficients of geographical variables suggests possible shifts in broadband availability  The odds ratios of BB (as opposed to NB) are less pronounced later

28 February 2007Réka Horváth 16 Conclusions There is a digital divide in terms of who has internet connections The digital divide between broadband and narrowband is becoming less significant Internet take-up should be encouraged:  Subsidised computer purchases  Subsidised internet subscriptions