Quantitative risk evaluation and mapping Task F Ragnar Sigbjörnsson.

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Presentation transcript:

Quantitative risk evaluation and mapping Task F Ragnar Sigbjörnsson

UPStrat-MAFA 3 rd General Meeting July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland Contents  Description of Task F  Deliverables  The working group  Definition of risk measures  The Pilot Study Areas  The Icelandic Study Case  The Disruption Index

UPStrat-MAFA 3 rd General Meeting July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland DESCRIPTION OF TASK F Tast F consists of five Actions: F1 – Creation of a Working Group dedicated to the evaluation of the seismic risk (EERC) F2 – Evaluation of significance of risk for the pilot region (LNEC) F3 – Damage ranking seismic risk inside regions (buildings – Census 2011 – and schools - Portugal) (LNEC) F4 – Comparison of risk measures among different study areas (EERC) F5 – Definition of more comprehensive measures of impact (physical, economic and social) and definition of risk criteria (IST)

UPStrat-MAFA 3 rd General Meeting July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland DESCRIPTION OF TASK F The main outcome of Task F are the following three deliverables: F1.1 – Definition of general guidelines for evaluation of the seismic risk (EERC); F2.1 – Report on Damage assessment in each of the test areas 1, 2, 3, 4 (INGV, IST, LNEC, CSIC and EERC); F5.1 – Report on more comprehensive measures of impact (physical, economic and social) and definition of risk criteria in each of the test areas 1, 2, 3, 4 (INGV, IST, LNEC, CSIC and EERC).

UPStrat-MAFA 3 rd General Meeting July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland WORKING GROUP: WG 12 Ragnar Sigbjörnsson, Maria Luisa Sousa, Alexandra Carvalho, Francisco Mota de Sa, Monica Amaral Ferreira, Carlos Sousa Oliveira, Sonia Raposo, Fabrizio Meroni, Gaetano Zonno, Salvatore D’Amico, Rajesh Rupakhety, Solveig Thorvaldsdottir, Francesca Bianco

UPStrat-MAFA 3 rd General Meeting July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland WORKING GROUP: WG 12 EERC (Iceland) Ragnar Sigbjörnsson Rajesh Rupakhety Sólveig Thorvaldsdottir IST (Portugal) Carlos Sousa Oliveira Monica Amaral Ferreira Francisco Mota de Sá INGV (Italy) Gaetano Zonno Fabrizio Meroni Salvatore D’Amico Francesca Bianco NLEC (Portugal) Alexandra Carvalho Maria Luisa Sousa Sonia Raposo

UPStrat-MAFA 3 rd General Meeting July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland Definition of different measures of risk

UPStrat-MAFA 3 rd General Meeting July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland The lumping procedure

UPStrat-MAFA 3 rd General Meeting July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland The Pilot Study Areas  Italy (Mt. Etna Case)  Portugal (Lisbon and Algarve)  Spain  Iceland (The Town of Hveragerdi)

UPStrat-MAFA 3 rd General Meeting July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland The Icelandic Pilot Study - The Disruption Index

UPStrat-MAFA 3 rd General Meeting July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland HVERAGERÐI The Icelandic Pilot Study Area

UPStrat-MAFA 3 rd General Meeting July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland PUBLICATIONS 1.Ferreira, M.A. (2012). Risco sísmico em sistemas urbanos. Ph.D Thesis. Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa. 295 pp (in portuguese). 2.Ferreira, M.A.; Mota de Sá, F.; Oliveira, C.S. (2013). Disruption Index, DI: an approach for assessing seismic risk in urban systems. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, (submitted for publication) 3.Mota de Sá, F.; Oliveira, C.S.; Ferreira, M.A. (2013). QuakeIST: Instructions for running the software, IST, Lisboa. 73 pp 4.Oliveira, C.S.; Ferreira, M.A. and Mota de Sá, F. (2012). The concept of a disruption index: application to the overall impact of the July 9, 1998 Faial earth-quake (Azores islands). Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering. 10(1): Sousa, M. L.; Ferreira, M. A.; Mota de Sá, F.; Oliveira, C. S.; Raposo, S.; Sigbjörnsson, R.; Rupakhety, R.; Zonno, G.; Meroni, F.; Bianco, F.; D’Amico, S. (2012). Quantitative seismic risk evaluation and mapping: cases of schools and residential facilities in Lisbon and Algarve. 15 th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering. Lisbon

UPStrat-MAFA 3 rd General Meeting July 2013, Selfoss, Iceland Thank You