National climate services including aspects of using global and regional climate information at national level Danica Spasova Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia (RHMSS) Republic of SERBIA WMO Workshop on Strategy for Implementation of CSIS Geneva, Switzerland, 5-7 April 2011

Republic of Serbia RHMSS Climate Observation and Monitoring Synoptic/Princ. Clim.St. AWS hourly observations Ordinary Climatological stations 973 times per day Precipitation stations558daily measurements Ordinary Agromet. stations35 Phenological stations52 Upper air observations1 Meteorological Radar Hydrological stations for surface water Hydrological stations for ground water in construction Meteorological and Hydrological Observing System of the RHMSS consists of: * Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia (RHMSS) was established in 1947 as a special organization within the state administration and performs the tasks of monitoring, research, analysing and forecasting of weather, climate and water, international cooperation as well as other functions and duties of NMHS set by the Law.

Republic of Serbia RHMSS Climate Monitoring related activities and products -The analysis of climate elements and their anomalies in relation to multi-annual mean values ( RHMSS Weekly, Monthly and Annual bulletin); Monthly temperature and precipitation and their anomalies are regularly submitted to DWD – ECSM (European Climate System Monitoring). - Update of climate maps - Trend analysis of observed climate change - Statistical analysis of extremes - Climate services for users These products are available on RHMSS web-site

MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE

MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION

RHMSS Climate Monitoring related activities and products / Climate Indexes for Serbia ( ) Trend: TN10p Trend: TXx

RHMSS Climate Monitoring Operational Activities –Drought, Forest Fire, Heat Waves … As climate change begins to manifest in the form of increased frequency and intensity of hazards such as floods, storms, heat waves, drought, forest firethe RHMSS has established the operational system for drought, forest fire, floods, heat waves and other meteorological and hydrological extremes monitoring to support national disaster management activities. RHMSS Forest Fire IndexRHMSS DROUGHT MONITORING Near normal Minor drought Moderate drought Severe drought Extreme drought Exceptional drought SPI - 2

RHMSS METEOALARM AND HYDROALARM AS A PART OF THE EU METEOROLARM AND EU EFAS RHMSS meteoalarm: Meteoalarm-alerting Europe for extreme weather /EUMETNET The European Flood Alert System (EFAS) RHMSS hydroalarm:

RHMSS Infrastructure and Forecasting -access to and use of GPCs and RCCs products by RHMSS- Short- to Medium-Range Weather Seasonal Forecasts Short-Term Climate Long-Term Climate In performing a wide range of tasks within the Convention on the WMO, Agreement on cooperation with European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast-ECMWF, Agreement on Cooperation with the European Organization for Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites- EUMETSAT, and other multilateral and bilateral agreements, RHMSS in its forecasting operative work used the products of GPCs (ECMWF, DWD, Météo-France, ROSHYDROMET, NCEP). RHMSS is the host of the South East European Virtual Climate Change Centre – SEEVCCC, and uses all the available products of this Center. SEEVCCC available technologies: NCEP NMM-B: Unified Nonhydrostatic Multiscale Model on B grid (Zavisa Janjic, NCEP) SEEVCCC LRF System: [NCEP/Eta (Eta Belgrade University = EBU) + POM] (Vladimir Djurdjevic, Borivoj Rajkovic, Belgrade University - SEEVCCC) DREAM: Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (Slobodan Nickovic, WMO) HYPROM: Hydrology prediction model (Nickovic, WMO)

RHMSS Long Range Forecast Analogy method: Ensemble seasonal forecast: new Recognizes in statistical sense earlier system that is similar to the existing one to be forecasted; monthly forecast (on 1 st and 15 th in the month) SEEVCCC LRF products available every month for 7 months ahead. Dynamical downscaling of ECMWF 41 ensemble forecast with RCM-SEEVCCC fully coupled atmospheric-ocean-land model. Use of information from different sources – forecast in text form 7 months forecast (once a month) Interpretation of GPC forecasts: Operational available products are: mean ensemble maps (mean 2m temperature, precipitation accumulation, temperature anomaly and precipitation anomaly with respect to CRU data ) for one month and three months (season) diagrams (probabilistic forecast of mean monthly temperature and monthly precipitation accumulation for specific place) CPT: Preparation for operational use

RHMSS CLIMATE WATCH EXPERIMENTAL ACTIVITIES– EARLY WARNING OF TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AND EXTREMES Example: Positive June 2010 temperature anomaly forecasted in March 2010 is used for initial climate watch advisory for heat wave – SEEVCCC LRF forecast start: March 1 st 2010 Map of temperature anomaly for June 2010 Probabilistic diagram for monthly temperature Belgrade (LRF, normal 1961/90, observations) Observed heat wave for June 2010 Simple BIAS correction applied on temperature: 0.5C decrease on every100m altitude above 200m.

RHMSS CLIMATE WATCH EXPERIMENTAL ACTIVITIES– EARLY WARNING OF TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AND EXTREMES/Cont. Example: Extremely wet SPI2 for February 2010 – LRF forecast start: January 1 st 2010 RCM-SEEVCCC ensemble forecast observed New! Under development

RHMSS CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH TO SUPPORT ADAPTATION The climate projections developed for the period and using RCM-SEEVCCC and IPCC/SRES A1B and A2 scenarios are used in national climate change impacts studies Climate projections performed with RCM – SEEVCCC: A1B scenario, : Temperature (left) and precipitation (right) changes over the territory of Serbia Annual Temperature (0C): ; Annual precipitation (%):

Is (%) г. Thorntwaite- drought index (% PET) Thorntwaite- drought index (% PET) for 2оC global warming RHMSS climate change research to support adaptation in agriculture sector Annual drought index projections for 2oC global worming

RHMSS climate change research to support adaptation in agriculture sector 1. Subotica-Horgos 2. Srem 3. Banat 8. Pocerac4. Sumadija-G.Morava 5. W.Morava 6. Timok 7. Nisava-S.Morava 9. Kosovo observed values are compared with model result of the closest model point Example: vineyard regions in Serbia Climate in present vineyard regions (<400m alt.) Shifts on ~1000m altitude

RHMSS climate extremes risk assessment to support DRR activities – preliminary results –

RHMSS SUPPORTING THE WMO SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM (SEECOF) Participants of the WMO/SEECOF 4, held in Belgrade, Serbia, from November 2010 RHMSS actively participate in and offered support to the WMO RCOF process in Southeastern Europe (SEECOF). RCOF/SEECOF is a mechanism which stimulates the development of climate capacity at the NMHSs and facilitates the liaison with the end-users, helping to generate decisions and activities which could mitigate the adverse impacts of climate variability and change and help communities to build appropriate adaptation strategies. Southeastern Europe Climate Outlook Forum as an integral part of the RCOFs process is important sub-regional mechanism for providing advanced information on the climate for the next season and beyond and building capabilities of NMHSs in using, interpreting and downscaling seasonal prediction products into regional and national products. In cooperation with WMO, RHMSS provided support for SEECOF 3rd session as an online Forum, and for organization of the SEECOF 4, in SEECOF 5 under preparation.

End users at national level 1.Improvement of Long Range Forecasting introducing the model climatology 2.Introducing and adapting climate watch – early warning system to end users (sector of agriculture, energy, water management,..) 3.Assessment and mapping of climate hazard, vulnerability, and risk 4.To develop ensemble monthly forecast, as dynamical downscaling of ECMWF ensemble monthly forecast on higher resolution in order to have more precise tool for early warning system as expected event approaches in time (depend on available CPU time) 5.Improve verification of LRF system 6.Enhancing regional cooperation within WMO Programmes and RA VI RCC Network, SEEVCCC, DMCSEE, WMO/UNDP DRR SEE Regional Project, SEE Action plan for adaptation and other initiatives to support data exchange, climate research, training and capacity building 7.Continuing participation in WMO, WCRP, EU projects and building partnerships 8.Active support and participation in follow-up WMO/GFCS activities. Climate data, monitoring products, LRF and Climate watch advisory are sent to ministries and other institutions from the following sector: disaster risk management, energy, environment, agriculture, forestry, health, insurance, district heating companies, road authorities, media, etc. Monthly and annual bulletins are available on web-site of RHMSS Future plans THANK YOU!