Elections and Voting Behavior Edwards, Wattenberg, and Lineberry Government in America: People, Politics, and Policy Fourteenth Edition Chapter 10 Elections and Voting Behavior

VOTING AND VOTERS INCREASING SUFFRAGE 15TH AMENDMENT=BLACKS CH 8 SUM VOTING AND VOTERS INCREASING SUFFRAGE 15TH AMENDMENT=BLACKS 19TH AMENDMENT=WOMEN 24TH AMENDMENT=NON-TAXPAYERS 26TH AMENDMENT=18 TO 21 YEAR OLDS

THE TREND = MORE EDUCATION

VOTING AND VOTERS STATE QUALIFICATIONS CH 8 SUM VOTING AND VOTERS STATE QUALIFICATIONS 18, CITIZEN, RESIDENT, REGISTERED ID (PHOTO OR UTILITY BILL) AT POLLS ?

AMERICANS… LESS LIKELY TO VOTE THAN EUROPEANS US HAS MORE ELECTIVE OFFICES US COMPLEX REGISTRATION PROCESS US POLITICAL PARTIES ARE WEAKER US LESS DAILY GOV’T INVOLVEMENT

U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TURNOUT

    Japan 71%     Estonia 69%     Hungary 66%     Russia 61%     India 58%     U. S. 54%     Switz     Poland 51%     Brazil 83%     Netherlands     Costa Rica 81%     Norway     Romania     Bulgaria 80%     Israel     Portugal 79%     Finland 78%     Canada 76%     France     U.K.     Ireland 74%     Spain 73%     Japan 71%     Australia 95%     Malta 94%     Austria 92%     Belgium 91%     Italy 90%     Luxembourg     Iceland 89%     New Zealand 88%     Denmark 87%     Germany 86%     Sweden     Greece     Venezuela 85%     Czech Rep.     Brazil 83%     Switzerland 54%     Poland 51%

TYPES OF POLITICAL PARTICIPATION ACCORDING TO VERBA AND NIE INACTIVES (22%) PAROCHIAL PARTICIPANTS COMMUNALISTS VOTING SPECIALISTS CAMPAIGNERS COMPLETE ACTIVISTS (11%)

CHARACTERISTICS OF PEOPLE WHO VOTE MORE OFTEN MORE EDUCATED HIGHER INCOME UNION MEMBERSHIP POLITICALLY AFFILIATED CIVIC INVOLVEMENT OLDER MARRIED RELIGIOUS

WHY PEOPLE DON’T VOTE LACK OF POLITICAL EFFICACY “INTERNAL” AND/OR “EXTERNAL” LACK OF MOTIVATION UNINSPIRING CANDIDATES NO REALIGNING ISSUES AKA “CRITICAL ELECTIONS” “BUSY”

Figure 13.2- Why People Don’t Vote  Back

Voters lining up outside a Baghdad polling station during the 2005 Iraqi election. Voter turnout was considered high despite widespread concerns of violence.

WOMEN VOTING IN AFGHANISTAN

“BALLOT CONFUSION” ??

SOUTH AFRICANS WAITING TO VOTE FOR THE FIRST TIME (1994)

12 HOURS OF LATER

Ways to Improve Voter Turnout Make registration and absentee voting easier. Make Election Day a holiday. Strengthen political parties.

Start Here on Thursday

The Last Battle: The Electoral College Electoral college actually elects POTUS States (political parties) choose the electors Winner-Take-All system Emphasizes more populated states

How the Electoral College works Each state has as many votes as it does Representatives and Senators. Winner of popular vote typically gets all the Electoral College votes for that state If no candidate gets a majority (270 votes)… House of Representatives votes for president (Each state gets one vote)

Elections and the Scope of Government Federal Gov’t does more now because… Elections gives power to ‘winners’ ‘Winners’ sent to DC to accomplish something Thus, gov’t expands to fill the needs of the voters

Patterns in Vote Choice Ticket-splitting has increased. Race: minorities largely vote for Democrats. Gender: men usually vote for Republicans. Income: poor typically vote for Democrats. Ideology: Conservatives largely vote for Republicans. Issues: prospective and retrospective judgments.

AV- Turnout of Eligible Voters  Back

Figure 13.1- South v. Non-South  Back

Figure 13.3- Registered Voters  Back

Figure 13.5- Electoral College 2008  Back

2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

ohio presidential results (by %) 2008 2000 McCain 47.2 Bush 49.9 Obama 51.2 Gore 46.4 2004 1996 50.8 Dole 41 Kerry 48.7 1996 Dole41Clinton47.3D +6.32000 Bush49.9R +3.5Gore46.42004 Bush50.8R +2.1Kerry48.72008 McCain47.2Obama51.2D +4.02012 Romney47.7Obama50.7D +3.0AvgRep47.32Dem48.86D +1.54 Clinton 47.3

1996   Dole 41 Clinton 47.3 D +6.3 2000 Bush 49.9 R +3.5 Gore 46.4 2004 50.8 R +2.1 Kerry 48.7 2008 McCain 47.2 Obama 51.2 D +4.0 2012 Romney 47.7 50.7 D +3.0 Avg Rep 47.32 Dem 48.86 D +1.54

12 R (safe) 4 D (safe) 2 R (competitive)

Figure 13.6- Gerrymandering  Back

Gerrymander “art” http://rangevoting.org/GerryGal.html

http://www.redistrictinggame.org/

Figure 13.7- Electronic Voting Machines  Back

Summary Voters make two basic decisions at election time: 1-Whether to vote 2-Who to vote for How important are demographics ? Voter Demographics = Stereotyping? Does this influence campaigns? Policies? Elections are fundamental to a democracy.

Elections and Voting Behavior Edwards, Wattenberg, and Lineberry Government in America: People, Politics, and Policy Fourteenth Edition Chapter 10 Elections and Voting Behavior

How American Elections Work Types of elections: Primary elections Party selection of nominees General elections Select candidate to hold office Referendum State/local -level method of rejecting legislation Initiative State/local -level method of proposing legislation

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice Suffrage: the legal right to vote Extended to African Americans by the 15th Amend Extended to Women by the 19th Amendment Extended to people over 18 by the 26th Amendment

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice U.S. has low voter turnout Political Efficacy = political participation really matters Civic Duty = a citizen should always vote

From Government in America, 13th edition.

Registering To Vote Voter Registration Required in order to vote system Must be initiated by the voter Registration procedures differ by state Motor Voter Act (1993) Voter ID laws (2009 to present)

How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions Candidates want a good visual & public image. Personality plays a role in voter choice

How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions Party Identification More split-ticket voting since late 1960’s More independents (so-called floating voters)

How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions Mandate Theory of Elections* The idea that the winning candidate has approval from the people to carry out platform

Policy Voting Basing your vote choice on issue preferences and where the candidates stand on policy issues But… Candidates can be ambiguous on the issues Voters may not know candidates stance on issues

Understanding Elections and Voting Behavior Retrospective voting Votes based on what a candidate has done lately Those who feel worse-likely to vote against incumbents. Bad economies make politicians nervous.

http://www. realclearpolitics http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

WILSON CH. 6 - POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IMPORTANT TERMS ACTIVIST AUSTRALIAN BALLOT CAMPAIGNERS COMMUNALISTS COMPLETE ACTIVISTS ELIGIBLE ELECTORATE FIFTEENTH AMENDMENT

WILSON CH. 6 - POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IMPORTANT TERMS GRANDFATHER CLAUSES INACTIVES LITERACY TEST MOTOR-VOTER BILL NINETEENTH AMENDMENT PAROCHIAL PARTICIPANTS POLL TAX REGISTERED VOTERS

WILSON CH. 6 - POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IMPORTANT TERMS TWENTY-SIXTH AMENDMENT TWENTY-THIRD AMENDMENT VOTER APATHY VOTING RIGHTS ACT OF 1970 VOTING-AGE POPULATION VOTING SPECIALISTS WHITE PRIMARIES

WILSON CH. 6 - POLITICAL PARTICIPATION QUESTIONS 1-IS VOTER PARTICIPATION LOWER IN THE USA THAN IN EUROPEAN CONTRIES? EXPLAIN YOUR ANSWER. 2-WHAT HAVE BEEN THE POLICY CONSEQUENCES OF A BROADER ELECTORATE.

WILSON CH. 6 - POLITICAL PARTICIPATION QUESTIONS 3-WHAT COULD BE DONE TO INCREASE VOTER TURNOUT? 4-WHAT SORTS OF PEOPLE ARE OVERREPRESENTED ANOUNG THOSE WHO PARTICIPATE A GREAT DEAL? DOE THIS BIAS THE POLICIES THE GOVERNMENT WILL ADOPT? IF SO, WHICH ONES?