Public Opinion? Chapter 7

Public Opinion and Democracy If we are a government “of, by, and for the people” why do they do so many things we don’t agree with? – People want a balanced budget—we have the largest deficit in history – People agreed with the Equal Rights Amendment—it didn’t pass – People want term limits for Congress—not even coming close to getting that So is the government simply not listening to the people? Why do we pay these guys to go to D.C.?

Public Opinion and Democracy While it is easy to be cynical, there is a reason that the government does not do what we want – First, have you tried to figure out what someone else wants? Not easy…now try 370 million people Remember that there are different “publics”—they don’t all agree on a given point, what do you do then? Can you trust public polls? – Second, the goals of the government are not “give the people what they want” rather, the Preamble clearly states what they are supposed to do.

What is Public Opinion? Do you support the Monetary Control Bill? – 21% yes – 25% no – The rest said I don’t know…they were the smart ones There is no such thing as the MCB—it was made up – Despite this evidence, political scientists say we should still value public opinion Why?

How Polling Works We can know what 300 million people think by interviewing 1500 if the poll is done correctly This includes: – Asking questions that they have some basis for forming an opinion – Wording questions fairly (no “loaded/emotional” language)

How Polling Works Random Sampling – You need to choose the participants at random (sort of) – Find an area where lots of the demographics are likely to be Don’t go to a BMW showroom and expect to find the middle and lower class people – A mall, grocery store, or street corner would be likely to produce correct results You could end up with a sampling error – You did the survey twice in two different areas and got different results – A small percentage is normal, you will not get exactly the same results.

How Polling Works Who’s going to win the 2012 election? – Shrugging your shoulders? You’re not alone… – In elections that have a margin of less than ~5% it is hard to tell who will win – When likely voters are polled we currently see a 51-46% spread 51%) – Why is this not necessarily accurate? On election day exit polls will be conducted – These are questions asked to random people coming out of the voting booths – They are usually a good indicator of what the outcome will be Why are they not a 100% indicator?

How Polling Works Polls are often somewhat inaccurate due to their collection methods – Exit polling ignores early voters and absentee ballots – Polls via phone calls ignore “hard to contact” people – Not to mention the fact that you may simply ask the wrong questions of the wrong people If you ask someone who is indifferent to gay rights if they will vote for one person over another based on their position on the issue, you are not getting a very valuable piece of information

How Opinions Differ Opinion saliency – Some people care more about certain issues than others Opinion stability – Some opinions are consistent while others are more volatile (wishy-washy) Opinion-policy congruence – Government policy is in sync with some of the majority’s views while other issues they are out of sync

Reading Charts Read the charts on page – Summarize (make generalizations) about each chart Explain what information is valuable and why a politician or policymaker would need to know that information Due Wednesday!