The latest products and tools provided by JMA Kenji KISHIMOTO National Typhoon Center JMA

On 22 April 2009, JMA started the operations for 5-day tropical cyclone track forecast. On 22 April 2009, JMA started the operations for 5-day tropical cyclone track forecast. Since 22 April, JMA, as RSMC Tokyo, has improved the following products and tools for the Typhoon Committee Members. Since 22 April, JMA, as RSMC Tokyo, has improved the following products and tools for the Typhoon Committee Members. Major points of this presentation - Numerical Typhoon Prediction Web Site - Numerical Typhoon Prediction Web Site - RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center Website - RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory - RSMC Guidance for Forecast JMA provides a powerful tool for satellite image analysis of tropical cyclone. JMA provides a powerful tool for satellite image analysis of tropical cyclone.

Real-time JMA products and tools for TC operations Operational forecast RSMC TC Advisory -for 3-day forecast (WTPQ20-25 RJTD: via GTS) RSMC TC Advisory -for 5-day track forecast (WTPQ50-55 RJTD: via GTS) Prognostic reasoning (WTPQ30-35 RJTD: via GTS) RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center Website -for 3-day forecast & 5-day track forecast (open) Numerical Weather Prediction RSMC Guidance for Forecast -TC prediction of JMA/GSM -TC prediction of JMA/GSM -TC prediction of JMA/Typhoon EPS (FXPQ20-25 RJTD: via GTS) Numerical Typhoon Prediction Web Site -TC prediction of major NWP centers in the world (for registered users) JMA EPS-WEB -JMA one-week EPS products (for registered users) RSMC Data Serving System -GPV data of global atmosphere, global wave (for registered users) Observation & analysis SAREP -tropical cyclone (TC) satellite image analysis (TCNA20/21 RJTD, IUCC10 RJTD: via GTS) RSMC Data Serving System –surface, upper air, atmospheric motion vector (for registered users) GMSLPD -satellite image analysis tool Komori-san s lecture Its detail and demo Tanaka-sans lecture

GMSLPD (GMS image viewer for Dvorak analysis) GMSLPD is a viewer program for satellite image analysis of tropical cyclone. GMSLPD is a viewer program for satellite image analysis of tropical cyclone. JMA provides not only GMSLPD but also satellite images and NWP data for GMSLPD. JMA provides not only GMSLPD but also satellite images and NWP data for GMSLPD.

Numerical Typhoon Prediction Web Site (1) JMA Typhoon EPS (TEPS) track up to the next 132 hours on Track Prediction page (TEPS track up to the next 84 hours before 22 April 2009) (TEPS track up to the next 84 hours before 22 April 2009) Extension of TEPS track from the next 84 to 132hr

Numerical Typhoon Prediction Web Site (2) Addition of JMA Ensemble Prediction page (2) Addition of JMA Ensemble Prediction page Ensemble mean track Member track

Numerical Typhoon Prediction Web Site (3) Addition of Dvorak analysis page (by this summer) This page will show the estimation of cloud systems using the conventional Dvorak analysis and Early stage Dvorak analysis (EDA). Dvorak analysis SAREP shows the estimation of conventional Dvorak analysis. Identification number of cloud system Center position of cloud system Intensity of cloud system

Numerical Typhoon Prediction Web Site Links to model information of the organizations participating in the Web Site Other useful pages (same as before) Please contact the RSMC Tokyo ( Please contact the RSMC Tokyo if you are interested in the Web Site.

RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center Website Addition of 5-Day Track Forecast page

RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center Website JMA website (English version) Latest RSMC tropical cyclone advisory Useful archive Best track ( ) Annual Report ( ) Technical Review (No.1-11)

New RSMC products through GTS WTPQ50 RJTD RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0901 KUJIRA (0901) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN UTC 13.9N 124.4E POOR MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT GUST 050KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF UTC 14.8N 127.2E 85NM 70% MOVE ENE 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT GUST 065KT 48HF UTC 16.3N 131.6E 180NM 70% MOVE ENE 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT GUST 080KT 72HF UTC 18.8N 136.6E 250NM 70% MOVE ENE 13KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT GUST 085KT 96HF UTC 22.7N 141.1E 280NM 70% MOVE NE 14KT 120HF UTC 28.8N 147.0E 375NM 70% MOVE NE 20KT = FXPQ20 RJTD RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST NAME TS 0901 KUJIRA (0901) PSTN UTC 13.9N 124.4E PRES 998HPA MXWD 35KT FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM TIME PSTN PRES MXWD (CHANGE FROM T=0) (CHANGE FROM T=0) T= N 124.3E -002HPA -009KT T= N 124.6E 000HPA -006KT T= N 125.4E -001HPA -007KT T= N 126.3E +001HPA -008KT T= N 127.5E -002HPA -009KT T= N 128.5E 000HPA -010KT T= N 129.4E -002HPA -010KT T= N 130.4E 000HPA -010KT T= N 131.4E -002HPA -010KT T= N 132.5E 000HPA -010KT T= N 133.3E -003HPA -010KT T= N 134.2E -001HPA -009KT T= N 135.1E -003HPA -008KT T= N 136.0E -002HPA -008KT T= N 137.0E -004HPA -006KT T= N 138.0E -002HPA -005KT T= N 139.3E -004HPA -005KT T= N 140.8E -002HPA -004KT T= N 142.4E -004HPA -003KT T= N 144.3E -003HPA -002KT T= N 146.5E -005HPA -001KT T= N 148.6E -003HPA -002KT= RSMC TC advisory for 5-day track forecast (operational forecast) WTPQ50-55 RSMC Guidance for forecast (NWP data) FXPQ20-25

JMA 5-day track forecast 4 times/day (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) 3-day track & intensity forecast 5-day track forecast It is expected to hold TS intensity or higher in the next 3 days. Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Over 50kt-wind probability area Over 30kt-wind area Over 50kt-wind area 70% probability circle issued about 50 minutes after the hour issued about 90 minutes after the hour 70% probability circle

JMA 5-day track forecast A circle radius is decided based on an ensemble spread. ensemble mean GSM A circle center is put based on an ensemble mean position. ensemble mean GSM JMA mainly uses Typhoon EPS for 5-day track forecast. A probability circle is deployed in ensemble forecast approach.

Feature of JMA 5-day track forecast 1. The radius of a probability circle changes changes depending on the uncertainty of forecast depending on the uncertainty of forecast which is shown mainly by the latest Typhoon EPS data. which is shown mainly by the latest Typhoon EPS data. 2. The center of a probability circle is not so important. is not so important.

JMA 5-day track forecast TEPS Group AGroup B Group C Our verification result say that the radius of 70% probability circle enlarges in proportion to ensemble spread (forecast uncertainty). This distance includes 70% of forecast cases (center positions) in Group C. ( )

JMA 5-day track forecast The center of probability circle just means the center of forecast uncertainty area. Green line with squares: ensemble mean track Line with circles: each member track If TEPS members separate into 2 courses clearly, ensemble mean track is low probability.

How to use JMA 5-day track forecast Probability circles indicate potential tracks up to the next 5 days. We should consider all potential tracks within a circle. The track through circle centers is just one of potential tracks.

Examples of 5-day track forecast Best track of Jangmi (0815) [Circle] 6 hourly position [Circle with number] Position at 00UTC Number: Day [TC grade] TY STS TS 24 Sep. 01 Oct. 1st case (26/06UTC) 2nd case (26/18UTC) 3rd case (27/06UTC) Forecast experiment

ANAL DAY1 DAY2 DAY3 DAY5 DAY4 Examples of 5-day track forecast The circle indicates that the there is fair possibility for Jangmi to make landfall in China. 1st case

ANAL DAY1 DAY2 DAY3 DAY5 DAY4 Examples of 5-day track forecast The enlarged circle indicates that forecast uncertainty increased than the previous forecast (1 st case). (suggestion: potential for both recurving and moving westward) Little change of a circle center compared to the previous forecast. 2nd case

ANAL DAY1 DAY2 DAY3 DAY4 DAY5 Examples of 5-day track forecast The shrunk circle indicates that forecast uncertainty decreased than the previous forecast (2 nd case). (suggestion: higher possibility of recurving and less possibility of moving westward) 3rd case

Summary of my presentation I hope our products and tools will contribute to the typhoon monitoring activities of your organizations. Thanks!!