Weather, Climate & Water Services Dr. D.P. Dubey Scientist E Meteorological Centre, Bhopal (India) email- dir_dubey@rediffmail.com

Weather, climate and water information contributes to the safety and welfare of the public & has the potential to provide immense social and economic benefits to society. It educate about important issues such as : variability in weather climate change vulnerability to natural hazards water resources

It is not sufficient to employ good science and provide accurate forecasts. There is also a need to educate public, and more specialized users, about availability of services .

India Water Resources Management

Monsoon rainfall

Main crop Kharif - June to Sept. Rabi - Oct to April.

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Operational communication to end-users (farmers) State Met Centres Agromet Advisory Bulletin by AMFUs Postal Contact Personal Contact Radio News Papers KVK State Agril. Dept. Farmer Television SMS on mobile

Weather forecast Short range Medium range Long range

ASSESSMENTS

Climate Change

ASSESSMENTS Source : IPCC

GLOBAL ASSESSMENTS – IPCC PROJECTIONS AVE. SURFACE TEMP. INCREASE 1.5 TO 5.8ºC RATE OF WARM LARGE MEAN SEA LEVEL RISE 0.09 TO 0.88 MTRS WATER VAP. CONCENTR. / PRECIP. TO INCREASE LOW LATITUDE REGIONS MEAN PRECIP. TO INCREASE ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON PRECIP. INCREASE EL-NINO EVENTS VARY IN NEXT 100 YEARS IN SMALL BUT INCREASE

REGIONAL EFFECTS: Asia Freshwater Availability: Decreased river flows after glaciers recede; will decrease. Floods: Glacier melt in Himalayas; sea level rise in deltas Crop yield: Increase up to 20% in E and SE; decrease up to 30% in S and central Asia by 2050; hunger risk high

Observed impacts in South Asia Intense Rains and Floods Serious and recurrent floods in Bangladesh, Nepal and N-E India in 2002, 2003 and 2004 Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million people lost their homes 50% of droughts associated with El Niño Droughts in Orissa (India) in 2000-2002: crop failures, mass starvation affecting 11 million people Droughts Cyclones / Typhoons Increasing intensity of cyclones formation in Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea since 1970 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, 2008: 100, 000 deaths

EVIDENCES / EVENTS NILAM CYCLONE (2012) DROUGHT HITS HEAT WAVE IN KARNATAKA 2008 HEAT WAVE IN NORTHERN INDIA 2007 COLD WAVE IN NORTH 2006 NILAM CYCLONE (2012)

INDIA Vulnerability to Climate Change

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE CASE SEA LEVEL RISE ??

Coastal Zones Sea level rise displace populations in coastal zones, increase flooding in low-lying coastal areas, loss of crop yields from inundation and salinization. 7500 km coast line Vulnerable areas along the Indian Coast due to SLR

Variability in Weather & Climate • Heat / Cold Wave • More variable R/F • Increased Extremes Weather Events • Erratic Onset, advance and retrieval of Monsoon • Shift in Active/break cycles • Intensity and frequency of Monsoon Systems

Agriculture Decrease in yield of crops as temperature increases in different parts of India – 2°C increase in mean air temperature, rice yields could decrease by about 0.75 ton/hectare in the high yield areas and by about 0.06 ton/hectare in the low yield coastal regions. Major impacts of climate change will be on rain fed crops (other than rice and wheat), which account for nearly 60% of cropland area. In India poorest farmers practice rain fed agriculture. The loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9 and 25% for a temperature rise of 2-3.5°C.

Factors influencing agriculture and food security Increasing population Growing urbanization Decreasing crop land Continuing crop loss Declining crop production Declining bio-diversity

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in India

Adaptations to Climate change Improve land management practices-soil &nutrients Increase water management Reduce inefficiency in water use Preserve and enhance plant and animal Adjust food consumption patterns Promote eco-friendly energy use Shift to different cropping patterns

Climate Friendly Initiative Wide-ranging reforms such as: energy efficiency increasing penetration of cleaner fuels thrust for renewable energy technologies cleaning of rivers, enhanced forestation, installed significant capacity of hydro and renewable energy technologies and introduced clean coal technologies cleaner and lesser carbon intensive fuel

Water

Key Vulnerable River Basins Acute physical water scarce conditions Constant water scarcities and shortage Seasonal / regular water stressed conditions Rare water shortages

The Indian situation this, 40 % is not available. • Surface and ground water availability - 1,869 BCM of this, 40 % is not available. Groundwater Consumption: 92% - Agricultural 5% - Industrial 3% - Domestic. Surface water Consumption: 89% - Agricultural 2% - Industrial 9% - Domestic.

The Indian situation Groundwater is the major source of water in the country with 85% of the population dependent. Groundwater water table decline - 33 centimeters per year.

SCARCITY The Indian situation Groundwater [Depleted] Surface water [Polluted] Rainfall [Wasted] Population [ ] Demand [ ] Consumption [ ] SCARCITY Industrial Growth [ ] Economy-Industry [ ] Water Business[ ] Agriculture [ ] Health & Environment[ ] Future [ ? ]

The Indian situation

Challenges …. Public Wasting Water Polluting Water

Challenges …. Safety of industrial establishments from surplus surface water and floods Lack of proper draining facilities Uncontrolled exploitation of ground water by some industrial establishments

Challenges … 2020 India will become a water stressed nation. 66 million Indians in 20 states are at risk due to excess fluoride 10 million due to excess arsenic in groundwater

Solution … Rain Water Harvesting Irrigation Water Management Hydrological projects - Construction of Dams Artificial Recharge to Ground Water.

Solution … National River Linking Project

Solution … The much-awaited seawater desalination plant, the largest in the country with a capacity of 100 MLD (million litres per day), coming up near Minjur about 35 km north of Chennai . Under the technology, developed by the National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT), warm water is pumped into a vacuum flash chamber and the resultant vapour is condensed using cold water to get crystal clear potable water. Desalinated water is of a better quality and the cost is only 6 paise per litre.

Solution … Water awareness groups among social media networking sites like Twitter, Facebook are creating new trend among the social awareness groups. Its not a solution to be found, it should be a RESOLUTION everyone should take.

Thank you