Announced Coal Unit Retirements: Effect on Regional Resource Adequacy Council Meeting January 16, 2013 Portland, Oregon Boardman Centralia 1.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

WORKSHOP ON UTILITY WIND INTEGRATION STUDIES: MODELS AND METHODS Panel 6 – Base Load Unit Cycling Costs Gene Danneman P.E. June 24 & 25, 2010.

Advertisements

Out of Region Market Assumptions Resource Adequacy Technical Committee April 6 th, 2011.

NERC/GADS Reporting Requirements John Yale Hydro Plant Engineering Manager Chelan County PUD 1.

Power Supply Adequacy Assessment Model/Methodology Review Steering Subcommittee Meeting January 29, 2010.

Current Northwest Energy Issues A BPA Customer Perspective Dan James PNWA Summer Meeting June 23, 2014.

Resource Adequacy in PJM

Genesys Model Enhancements October 4, 2011 NW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting Gwendolyn S Shearer.

Ad Hoc West-wide Resource Assessment Team (WRAT) : Assessment of Western System Adequacy in the Short-term Jeff King Northwest Power Planning Council Presentation.

1.  Purpose  To present Staff’s Preliminary Findings on the 2012 Integrated Resource Plans of:  APS – Arizona Public Service Company  TEP – Tucson.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Effects of Alternative Scenarios on Sixth Power Plan Northwest Power and Conservation Council Whitefish, MT June.

STRATEGIES FOR PROMOTION OF ENERGY EFFICIENT AND CLEANER TECHNOLOGIES IN THE POWER SECTOR Synthesis Report Issue 1: Implications of Carbon & Energy Taxes.

ColumbiaGrid Planning Update to PCC Marv Landauer October 7, 2014.

EE 369 POWER SYSTEM ANALYSIS

Lecture 16 Economic Dispatch Professor Tom Overbye Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering ECE 476 POWER SYSTEM ANALYSIS.

SEPTEMBER 29, 2014 | CONCORD, NH Eric Johnson DIRECTOR, EXTERNAL AFFAIRS New Hampshire Energy Summit Lessons Learned from Winter 2014 and How the ISO Is.

Power Hungry Chapter 9 Myth: Wind Power Reduces CO 2 Emissions Presented by: Stephen Berwick.

Electric Generation Reliability Remarks Before the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission 2011 Summer Reliability Assessment Meeting June.

Draft Avoided Cost Forecast and Marginal CO 2 Offset Value of Conservation Regional Technical Forum Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council.

NW Resource Adequacy Forum Steering Committee Conference Call November 4, 2010.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Draft Plan Proposed Regional Conservation Targets for June 9, 2009.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Slide 1 Direct Use of Natural Gas Economic Fuel Choices from the Regional Power System and Consumer’s Perspective.

Wholesale Power Price Forecast 01/28/03 Current Trends Update March 11, 2003.

OVERVIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR AND PLAN FOR 12 th / 13 th PLAN.

Discussion of Resource Plans Michael Schilmoeller for the Northwest Power and Conservation Council Wednesday, June 10, 2009.

A Resource Adequacy Standard for the Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Technical Committee January 17, 2008 Portland Airport.

Developing an Adequacy Metric Resource Adequacy Forum Technical Subcommittee Meeting October 16, 2009.

Preliminary Results with the Regional Portfolio Model Michael Schilmoeller for the Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generation Resource Advisory.

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Adding Incremental Flexibility to the Pacific Northwest Power System? Maury Galbraith Northwest Power.

B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 2009 Draft Resource Program Released: September 30, 2009 Accepting Comments until: November 30,

Adequacy Assessment for the 2017 Pacific Northwest Power Supply Steering Committee Meeting October 26, 2012 Portland, Oregon 1.

Revising the Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Standard Resource Adequacy Technical Committee June 23, 2011.

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generating.

May 31, Resource Adequacy Capacity Standard Resource Adequacy Forum Technical Committee May 31, 2006 Background Image: Bennett, Christian Science.

June 27, Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Assessment for 2010 and 2012 Resource Adequacy Forum Steering Committee Meeting Northwest Power Pool.

Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting April 6, 2011.

Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting October 4, 2011.

Key Findings Utility & Environmental Implications Table 5b: Generation capacity mix at selected energy tax rates in year 2025 Issue 1 Energy Tax Power.

Relationship of Regional Resource Adequacy Standards to Utility Planning PNW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting June 27, 2007.

Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) A Success Story… In Progress Ingmar Sterzing United States Association of Energy Economics (USAEE) Pittsburgh.

Providing Resource Planning Guidance to Individual Utilities PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting June 20, 2007.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Overview of Draft Sixth Power Plan Council Meeting Whitefish, MT June 9-11, 2009.

Winter Power Supply Adequacy/Reliability Analysis Power Committee Briefing October 17, 2001.

2009 Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Assessment Resource Adequacy Technical Committee October 16, 2009.

Moving toward a Final Resource Adequacy Standard Resource Adequacy Forum Steering Committee Meeting September 27, 2007.

Providing Resource Planning Guidance to Individual Utilities PNW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting April 13, 2007.

Capacity Metric & Hydro Capacity Assessment Decisions Mary Johannis PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting June 20, 2007.

Resource Adequacy Assessment for 2015 Resource Adequacy Forum Technical Committee Meeting October 1, 2010.

Out of Region Market Assumption Resource Adequacy Technical Committee December 1, 2011.

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Interim Wholesale Electricity Price and Carbon Dioxide Production Forecasts Maury Galbraith Northwest.

Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Assessment for 2011 and 2013 Resource Adequacy Forum Steering Committee Meeting July 21, 2008.

Wind Turbine Power Plant. Sources ●

Slide 1 Overview of Conservation in the Pacific Northwest Energy Efficiency Options in the Northwest Post-2011Meeting March 4, 2008.

ISO Confidential Overview of California’s Current Drought and its Effects on the Energy System Dede Subakti, P. E. Director, Operations Engineering Services.

SLIDE 1 ELECTRICITY STATEMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES October 2011 PRESENTED BY MAGNUS HINDSBERGER.

RFPEG2013 PRE-BID MEETING RFPEG2013 – Pre-Bid meeting January 9, 2014 Presentation by Derek Davis – Public Utilities Commission.

2016 LTSA Update Doug Murray 6/21/2016. Agenda Introduction Scenario Retirement Process Scenario Summary Results Appendix.

Northwest Coal Retirement Reduction Study Development of Base Case Assumptions and Scenarios PNUCC Meeting October 15,

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts Maury Galbraith Generating Resource Advisory Committee Meeting.

© 2016 Portland General Electric. All rights reserved. I NTEGRATED R ESOURCE P LAN 2016 OPUC Meeting April 21, 2016.

Power Supply Adequacy for the 2021 Operating Year Resource Adequacy Advisory Committee Steering Committee Webinar June 8, 2016.

2017 Integrated Resource Plan

Integrating Energy and Air Quality

Key Findings and Resource Strategy

Vetting the GENESYS Model

Out of Region Market Assumptions

Capacity Analysis in the Sixth Plan

ColumbiaGrid Planning Update to PCC Marv Landauer October 7, 2014

Progress on Resource Adequacy Assessment for 2017

Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting October 4, 2011

Base on maximum operating wind capacity at end of planning period

Presentation transcript:

Announced Coal Unit Retirements: Effect on Regional Resource Adequacy Council Meeting January 16, 2013 Portland, Oregon Boardman Centralia 1

Assignment At the October Council meeting, Member Rockefeller asked: ‘How will the announced closure of coal units at Boardman and Centralia in 2020 affect regional resource adequacy?’ 2

Analysis Performed 1.Assessed regional resource adequacy in 2021 after Boardman and Centralia 1 are closed 2.Estimated how much additional dispatchable resource capacity is needed to make the regional power system adequate 1 1 The Council’s adequacy standard sets a maximum limit of 5 percent for the power supply’s loss of load probability. 3

Summary of Projected Changes From now to 2021 Increase Changes that Increase Need Notes Net Load Growth1,210 MWa or 0.6% growth rate, with 2,900 MWa of EE savings removed 1 Boardman Retires510 MWa 2 (601 MW nameplate) Centralia 1 Retires620 MWa 2 (730 MW nameplate) 4 1 Percent of load growth met with EE is 71%. 2 Assuming an 85% availability factor for coal-fired plants.

Sixth Plan Target Efficiency Levels YearIncremental Savings (MWa) 2010 Cumulative Savings from 2010 (MWa) 2013 Cumulative Savings from 2013 (MWa) , , , , , , , Council’s target for 2014 is 1,200 MWa. 2 EE savings past 2017 are limited by assumed ramp rates.

Summary of Projected Changes From now to 2021 Reduce Changes that Reduce Need Notes Hydro Upgrades350 MWa Thermal Resources115 MWa 1 (124 MW nameplate) RPS Resources1,200 MWa (4,000 MW nameplate) 6 1 Assuming a 92% availability factor for gas-fired turbines.

In the Analysis Generating Resource Additions In the Analysis (Cumulative) 7

Loss of Load Probability -1,130 MWa Coal (1,330 MW) + 1,840 MWa New (2,000 MW) 8 +1,210 MWa Load +115 MWa Gas +350 MWa Hydro +1,200 MWa Wind

Conclusions 15.3% LOLP adequacy without Boardman, Centralia 15.3% LOLP 2,000 megawatts 2.Additional dispatchable resource capacity needed to bring LOLP back to 5%: 2,000 megawatts 9

Not in the Analysis Planned Resources Not in the Analysis (Cumulative) 10 Source: PNUCC

Additional Slides 11

Adequacy Milestones YearLOLP 2013< 5% 20155% % 2021 with coal units8.3% 2021 without coal units15.3% 2021 without coal, with 2,000 MW 5% 12

Results StepDescriptionLOLP LOLP with Boardman and Centralia 8.3% Without Boardman and Centralia15.3% Without Boardman and Centralia With 2,000 MW new dispatchable capacity 5.0% LOLP 6.6%