Crop Tour Results Impact on Market Outlook Chip Flory Editorial Director, Pro Farmer Host, Market Rally radio

Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour Highlights 23 years of Tour data and experiences 7 states in 4 days Cumulative 25,000-plus miles traveled ~1,400 corn and 1,400 soybean samples

Ohio corn Calculated Tour yield of bu. per acre.  Down 18.5% from last year Crop was uneven and yellow due to excessive moisture earlier in the growing season. Ear counts were solid, but grain length was lacking Avg. Tour “miss” since 2001 – 2.8 bu. per acre too low Pro Farmer estimated the Ohio corn yield at 151 bu. per acre  USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 168 bu. per acre

Indiana corn Calculated Tour yield of bu. per acre  Down 22.7% from last year. Major unevenness and nitrogen deficiency across Indiana Avg. Tour “miss” since 2001 – 1.7 bu. per acre too low Pro Farmer estimated the Indiana corn yield at 145 bu. per acre  USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 158 bu. per acre

Illinois corn Calculated Tour yield of bu. per acre  Down 12.9% from last year Easily the best state in the eastern Corn Belt, but still major issues in some areas. Crop was better in the western half of the state. Avg. Tour “miss” since 2001 – 1.8 bu. per acre too high Pro Farmer estimated the Illinois corn yield at 169 bu. per acre  USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 172 bu. per acre

Iowa corn Calculated Tour yield of bu. per acre  Up 0.8% from last year Yield calculations in crop districts 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 all came in above year-ago. Crop districts 6, 7, 8 and 9 came in under year-ago. Avg. Tour “miss” since 2001 – 3.9 bu. per acre too low Pro Farmer estimated the Iowa corn yield at 181 bu. per acre  USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 183 bu. per acre

Minnesota Corn Calculated Tour yield of bu. per acre  Up 11.8% from last year Southern Minnesota has a great crop, just not as attention- grabbing as we anticipated. Avg. Tour “miss” since 2001 – 11.9 bu. per acre too high Pro Farmer estimated the Minnesota corn yield at 178 bu. per acre  USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 184 bu. per acre

Nebraska corn Calculated Tour yield of bu. per acre  Up 0.8% from last year Dryland corn was better than normal, but irrigated yields weren’t as strong as some years Avg. Tour “miss” since 2001 – 14.9 bu. per acre too low Pro Farmer estimated the Nebraska corn yield at 178 bu. per acre  USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 187 bu. per acre

South Dakota Corn Calculated Tour yield of bu. per acre.  Up 8.7% from last year Record yield potential in the state. Crop was even and free of disease/insect pressure. Avg. Tour “miss” since 2001 – 4.9 bu. per acre too high Pro Farmer estimated the South Dakota corn yield at 160 bu. per acre  USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 160 bu. per acre

Pro Farmer corn estimate Pro Farmer pegs the national average corn yield at bu. per acre and the crop at billion bushels.  +/- 1% range: billion bu.; bu. per acre yield billion bu.; bu. per acre yield

Ohio soybeans 1,125 pods in a 3’X3’ square  Down 16.2% from last year Pro Farmer estimated the Ohio soybean yield at 46.4 bu. per acre  USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 48 bu. per acre

Indiana soybeans 1,093 pods in a 3’X3’ square  Down 10.4% from last year Pro Farmer estimated the Indiana soybean yield at 47.6 bu. per acre  USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 49 bu. per acre

Illinois soybeans 1,190 pods in a 3’X3’ square  Down 8.4% from last year Pro Farmer estimated the Illinois soybean yield at 50.5 bu. per acre  USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 53 bu. per acre

Iowa soybeans 1,219 pods in a 3’X3’ square  Up 3.9% from last year Pro Farmer estimated the Iowa soybean yield at 54 bu. per acre  USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 52 bu. per acre

Minnesota soybeans 1,119 pods in a 3’x3’ square  Up 8.5% from last year Pro Farmer estimated the Minnesota soybean yield at 46 bu. per acre  USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 48 bu. per acre

Nebraska soybeans 1,220 pods in a 3’X3’ square  Up 10.6% from last year Pro Farmer estimated the Nebraska soybean yield at 55.5 bu. per acre  USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 56 bu. per acre

South Dakota soybeans 1,055 pods in a 3’X3’ square  Virtually unchanged from last year Pro Farmer estimated the South Dakota soybean yield at 47 bu. per acre  USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 45 bu. per acre

Pro Farmer soybean estimate Pro Farmer pegs the national average soybean yield at 46.5 bu. per acre and the crop at billion bushels  +/- 2% range: billion bu.; 45.6 bu. per acre yield billion bu.; 47.4 bu. per acre yield

Crop Estimate Risks Both corn and soybean crop estimates use USDA’s harvested acres estimates.  Corn harvested acres should be lowered slightly.  Soybean harvested acres could be lowered as much as 750,000 to 1 million. Weather  Will corn crop finish “too early?”  Wet fall? Weather will only take away from Pro Farmer yield estimates – won’t likely add to crop size.

Questions? Chip Flory Editorial Director, Pro Farmer Host, Market Rally radio